Originally Posted by rzt:
“Simon Cowell talking about X Factor ratings:”
Some interesting stuff there. He makes a fair point about the consolidated numbers. I think in those the show is down about 6% year on year so far as it has timeshifted a bit more this year than last year. Obviously that isn't idea but it isn't a horrendous result either given that some of the early episodes last year were possibly inflated by Cowell/Cole's initial return. I know he's bigging up his numbers a bit which you'd expect as a producer but he seems to be fully aware of where the overnights are.i think the reference to Strictly being in the sevens is because the interview was held a couple of weeks ago (when he filmed judges houses).
The 2 hour Sunday shows have worked well. 7.8m last week was a decent result with a 45 min Strictly overlap. It averaged 8.6m in the 8pm hour which was actually the same as the year ago episode got (a 1 hour results show).
Interesting to see an acknowledgement that he first week's numbers didn't go down well. I think the Saturday rating was one thing but I think what will have really spooked them was that 6.5m for the first Sunday show. The Sunday ratings have gone up since then though. They've gone: 6.5m, 7.1m, 7.3m, 7.3m, 7.2m, 7.5m, 7.6m, 7.8m. So a good trajectory, particularly given that the last three weeks have had the Strictly overlap. It's all about what they can hold going into the live shows though
What that means in terms of a contract renewal I don't know. There's been a lot of talk about them ending the show next year which given how the numbers have dropped may not be wide of the mark. Equally though, I suspect ITV may have been burnt by the struggles they've had in Q1 since they axed Dancing on Ice and may be reluctant to axe TXF quite as hastily. Particularly as TXF could drop quite a bit lower than DOI and still be sustainable as it gets much better demos.
At this point (obviously this could change based on how the live shows and the early part of next year's run goes) I can see them renewing it. Maybe not on another 3 year deal but I think it'll be back in some form. I think they should probably cut the number of hours it airs for and maybe even cut back to one night but I think it'll still be on air. They should probably push for a better deal but the leverage Syco have is BGT which is obviously still massive. If BGT posts another good run next year then I think ITV's position probably weakens. Equally though if ITV make noises about potentially ending TXF Syco might give it to them cheaper as part of a BGT deal. It's tricky but at this point I don't see them just ending TXF straight away.
Having said that I think tonight could be rough. The first Saturday show in weeks, it's judges houses and it's really long. I don't see it going well. Quite possibly below 7m (inc +1), as much as anything else people might not realise it's even on tonight. Next week with it being Halloween could be really tough as well. These next 2 weeks will probably be the most testing of the rest of this series.
