I hope to see Ainsley go further than some predictions. He showed some good moves at the launch and who better than Natalie as a teacher.

1st: Kellie & Kevin or Peter & Janette
=2nd: Whoever out of the above two doesn't win
=2nd: Helen & Aljaz
4th: Jamelia & Tristan
5th: Jay & Aliona
6th: Katie & Anton
7th: Georgia & Giovanni
8th: Ainsley & Natalie
9th: Anthony & Oti
10th: Kirsty & Brendan
11th: Daniel & Kristina
12th: Anita & Gleb
13th: Carol & Pasha
14th: Iwan & Ola
15th: Jeremy & Karen

That was more difficult than I anticipated. My reasoning/predictions are as follows:

Kellie and Peter will both be strong dancers, with Peter probably being the better of the two, and will both receive a lot of support from fans. When it comes to the final, though, it's hard to say if Peter's increasing anti-vote will mean that Kellie pips him - I think that may be what the finishing result comes down to.

I have a feeling that Helen will fall into the bottom-two at some point early on in a shock result (maybe around Halloween akin to Abbey/Kimberley?) but will bounce back from it and remain safe until the final. I can also see Jamelia appearing in a couple of bottom-two's towards the end, possibly being the one to knock Georgia out, who I think will be good but forgettable, and end up getting caught in Helen's shadow (as they're both very similar, but I think Helen will have a post bottom-two breakthrough and may steal votes from Georgia).

I also reckon a lot depends on how Jay copes with his nerves - I can't see him having a massive breakthrough and suddenly becoming a fierce contender, but I do think he'll keep making small improvements from week to week, which, when combined with his undoubtedly huge support, will keep him safe until around the semi-final, when he will be eliminated. I did consider swapping him with Katie, who might outlast him on ability/Anton's support, but we'll see.

Ainsley and Anthony will be the Ben Cohen/Mark Benton of this series, in that Ainsley will be incredibly entertaining and last quite a while on the basis of public support, while Anthony will get votes for both his (slow) improvement and his body, of course. I expect both to go out around Blackpool.

Both Carol and Daniel will stay in for a little while due to their fanbases, while the likes of Anita and Kirsty may struggle in the votes (Anita for being completely forgettable, and Kirsty for being 'over-competitive'). Iwan and Jeremy will both be pretty poor dancers, and I can't see either having the support from either the judges or the public to stay in for long.

At the moment, I think that the only contestant that I can guarantee to make the finale is Andre...............sadly.

How do you know that, out of curiosity?

It was just my prediction, as I said at the top.

i would have thought anyone who has the ability and puts in the hard work to get to the final should be applauded.

15th: Jeremy & Karen (Week 2)
14th: Anita & Gleb (Week 3)
13th: Iwan & Ola (Week 4)
12th: Carol & Pasha (Week 5)
11th: Daniel & Kristina (Week 6)
10th: Anthony & Oti (Week 7)
9th: Kirsty & Brendan (Week 8)
8th: Ainsley & Natalie (Week 9)
7th: Katie & Anton (Week 10)
6th: Jamelia & Tristan (Week 11)
5th: Jay & Aliona (Week 12)
4th: Helen & Aljaz (Week 13)
=2nd: Georgia & Giovanni (Week 13)
=2nd: Kellie & Kevin (Week 13)
1st: Peter & Janette (Winners)

My prediction before the launch show:



My prediction now:

1. Kellie & Kevin
2. Helen & Aljaz
=. Peter & Janette
4. Jamelia & Tristan
5. Jay & Aliona
6. Georgia & Giovanni (a la Pixie & Trent)
7. Katie & Anton
8. Anthony & Oti
9. Kirsty & Brendan
10. Ainsley & Natalie
11. Carol & Pasha
12. Anita & Gleb
13. Daniel & Kristina
14. Iwan & Ola
15. Jeremy & Karen

I'm not sure how good his dancing will be ...but I predict he'll last far longer than most are expecting.

He has 'likeable underdog' written all over him.I could see him making week 7 based on that alone.

New prediction:
1) Helen and Aljaz
=2) Peter and Janette/Georgia and Giovanni
4) Jamelia and Tristan
5) Kellie and Kevin
6) Jay and Aliona
7) Katie and Anton
8) Anthony and Otlile
9) Ainsley and Natalie
10) Kirsty and Brendan
11) Iwan and Ola
12) Carol and Pasha
13) Daniel and Kristina
14) Anita and Gleb
15) Jeremy and Karen

I dont think he will, I dont think Janette will choreography anything that will get him that far - sadly - sorry, I havent been impressed with Janette at all since she joined the show

I am willing to be proved wrong tho!

My predictions.

15th - Daniel O'Donnel (I do think he will be voted off first. Kristina is not exactly Miss Popular ATM and his fanbase will not save him once he ends up bottom / near bottom of the leaderboard.)
14th - Iwan Thomas (Not expecting much from him and will be the generic 2nd boot. Probably being low mid table in the score charts and the previous celeb in the dance off getting the vote boost.)
13th - Jeremy Vine (Will become boring and be constantly at the low end of scores. In the dance off with Carol / Ainsley at this point .)
12th - Carol Kirkwood (First female boot. Lowest scorer on Halloween night and probably will struggle to even reach week 5. So maybe being over generous.)
11th - Ainsley Harriot (Been in the dance off multiple times and will run out of luck once he is up against Jamelia this week.)
10th - Kirsty Gallacher (From the group dance she looked Pendleton esc so I am placing her here. Also think we will get a "shock" female boot so if she is good then also will guess Kirsty gets the boot in favour of a Helen / Jamelia due to Len's casting vote.)
9th - Katie Derham (Will be competent throughout, however once production / viewers see Anton could win they'll most likely become overly critical and the judges mark her low. Bye Felicia.)
8th - Jay McGuiness (Nicky Byrne vibes. Will start off terrible and then get progressively better but by then too late.)
7th - Anita Rani (Can see her doing well but getting eliminated at this point.)
6th - Jamelia (Finally get eliminated in the dance off after being in them multiple times. I am guessing against Andre when his vote starts dipping.)
5th - Kellie Bright (Eliminated despite giving it her all from the Andre rebound vote )
4th - Peter Andre (Eliminated not surprising in 4th. Honestly I doubt the audience, especially SCD voters would give him the win. The backlash already is huge and at this stage would we want to see him win?? Only if he is exceptional which is doubtful.)
2nd = Helen George (This years Ringa, will not have support to win Anthony.)
2nd = Georgia (Another female ringa, not enough appeal to win over Anthony.)
1st - Anthony (My winner, a safe bet )

Yes he was moving really well, one of the better male dancers it looked to me. Peter Andre being the best male at the moment. And Natalie is an excellent teacher.

Deleted

Having now seen the pairings and their first group outing, I would re-arrange as follows:

1st Jamelia & Tristan or Peter & Janette
2nd Whoever doesn't win
3rd Jay & Aliona
4th Kellie & Kevin
5th Helen & Aljaz
6th Georgia & Giovanni
7th Anthony & Oti
8th Ainsley & Natalie
9th Katie & Anton
10th Daniel & Kristina
11th Carol & Pasha
12th Kirsty & Brendan
13th Anita & Gleb
14th Iwan & Ola
15th Jeremy & Karen

Andre is, at best, too marmite to win, and I think the same might go for Kevin - I think he's in serious danger of getting overexposed and the powers that be have made a mistake by giving him a third good partner in a row. The jury's out on whether Jay was just holding back or nerves got to him or whatever. It is a difficult call this year as a lot of people could be good but how well they might do in the public vote is a total unknown (eg Georgia).

LOL at the idea that Anthony is a "safe bet" for champion.

I have a feeling Jamelia's dancing will totally eclipse her personality and people will not be able to resist voting for her - hence why she's in my revised Top Two.

Am I missing something??

I hope Georgia improves

That never happens. If you don't have the personality you don't get votes.

However, Louis Smith.......

15th - Daniel and Kristina
14th - Jeremy and Karen
13th - Iwan and Ola
12th - Carol and Pasha
11th - Ainsley and Natalie
10th - Kellie and Kevin
9th - Katie and Anton
8th - Jay and Aliona
7th - Jamelia and Tristan
6th - Kirsty and Brendan
5th - Anita and Gleb
4th - Peter and Janette
2nd = Helen and Aljaz
2nd = Georgia and Giovanni
1st - Anthony and Oti

Given that he's with Ola I now think Iwan has a slim chance of winning and instead will be out early. Think he would have had a chance if he had been with Natalie or Aliona. Here is what I now think:

15th - Anita (just can't see her having any fan base and especially with a newbie pro).
14th - Iwan (already they both seem unimpressed with being together).
13th - Jeremy (a mediocre fan base - won't get beyond Halloween).
12th - Jamelia ('shock' bottom 2 between her and Helen but big relief for viewers).
11th - Daniel (Not enough Irish hopping over the border to vote sees him go).
10th - Anthony (injury doesn't improve which leads to poor dancing).
9th - Carol (Fullerton & Murray effect - a popular duffer).
8th - Ainsley (will reach his comedic peak before things get serious).
7th - Helen (Alizaz won't be allowed anywhere near the final).
6th - Kellie (strong fan base but like above Kevin not given another chance).
5th - Katie (hope this can happen just to see Anton's reaction at getting so far).
4th - Georgia (will grow on people like Chelsee did and will be endearing).
3rd - Peter (foregone conclusion to be destined for the final).
2nd - Jay (despite the apparant nerves he's a ringer right?)
1st - Kirsty (always best to go for the underdog - Darcey won't be happy).

The show will make a big deal of Aliona and Brendan going head to head as going for the win again.

Aliona made two consecutive finals, as did Erin, Kevin, Lilia and Ian. Artem made two finals (and one semi-final) in four series, and James did the same in three. Pasha made three finals in four series.

Top 2 = 1. Peter Andre 2. Helen.

First out = 1. Jeremy 2. Iwan or Anita

Katie to win, just about.

1. Katie Derham
2. Peter Andre
3. Helen George
4. Kellie Bright
5. Georgia May Foote
6. Jay McGuiness
7. Anita Rani
8. Jamelia Davis
9. Kirsty Gallagher
10. Ainsley Harriott
11. Daniel O’Donnell
12. Anthony Ogogo
13. Carol Kirkwood
14. Jeremy Vine
15. Iwan Thomas

Tough one to call. I think the best dancers will be Helen George, Peter Andre, Katie Derham, Jamelia Davis, with Kellie Bright, Georgia May Foote and possibly Anita Rani not far behind. Popularity will play a big part in deciding the winner and with a proliferation of decent female dancers some good females may be competing against each other in dance offs, more’s the pity.