[Redcoat]

I generally tend to be an occasional poster dipping in and out, but earlier this year I did suggest a local Northern Irish thread for the mobile forum to cover issues on a local level. I don't see any (apologies if it has), so here goes...

With the Ofcom Communications Market Report 2015 being released, one area worth checking out is the operator market share. For a number of years O2 has been dominant in Northern Ireland, recording a 65% share in 2014, so what's changed...

2014 Figures

Network (% share across NI - NI Urban share/NI Rural Share)

O2       (65 - 62/69)
Vodafone (12 - 13/11)
EE       (3 - 3/3)
Orange   (8 - 9/8)
T-Mobile (1 - 2/1)
3        (4 - 5/3)
Tesco    (3 - 3/3)
Virgin   (1 - 1/0)
Other    (1 - 1/0)
Unsure   (1 - 1/1)

EE Total (12 - 14/12)

2015 Figures

Network (% share across NI - NI Urban share/NI Rural Share)

O2       (61 - 60/62)
Vodafone (11 - 9/15)
EE       (7 - 6/7)
Orange   (3 - 3/2)
T-Mobile (2 - 0/5)
3        (7 - 10-4)
Tesco    (4 - 4/5)
Virgin   (1 - 1/0)
Other    (3 - 6/0)
Unsure   (1 - 1/0)

EE Total (12 - 9/14)

* O2's market share has gone down a few points particularly in rural areas, but it is still top dog by a large margin.

* Vodafone's share has gone down slightly by an apparent exodus of urban users however they have picked up more rural subscribers.

* 3 have recorded a significant growth share in urban locations, rising from 5% to 10% with a very modest increase in rural locations. If you don't treat EE, Orange & T-Mobile as one network, then they are the second place network in urban areas. Not bad considering that they still don't have any 4G coverage here, not even the centre of Belfast!

* EE's total share across its three brands remains static however like Vodafone they have lost share in urban areas but gained in rural locations. One major anomaly is how on earth have T-Mobile risen in rural locations from a 1% share to 5%? Answers on a postcard.

* Tesco mobile have increased their share modestly with an increase in rural areas. Possibly ex-O2 customers switching while maintaining coverage?

* Virgin continue to have no effective presence in NI.

* Interestingly for "others" there is little significance in rural areas but it has notably grown in urban areas. Maybe the likes of giffgaff and so on?

The main winners over the past year seem to be 3 - again I just can't understand how T-Mobile have made a significant increase in rural areas when the brand is being phased out and never has been popular in NI. O2 remains rather static in urban areas, but have taken a 7 point cut in rural areas. But they're back to roughly the same levels that they were in 2013 in general.

I'll look at things like population coverage shortly.

[Redcoat]

The 2015 Ofcom CMR for NI reported for the first time that prepay customers no longer make up the largest group of mobile users here, with those taking out a contract with an inclusive handset now the most common group. Interestingly the share of people taking out a sim-only contract fell quite significantly.

Use type            09 10 11 12 13 14 15

PAYG                68 64 65 60 49 48 43
Contract w/phone    27 29 29 35 40 40 51
Contract Sim Only   03 03 05 05 11 10 04
Contract Unsure     01 02 00 >1 00 00 02
Unsure              00 02 00 00 00 02 00

However NI still has as a share more mobile users on PAYG tariffs (43%) compared to the UK in general (33%) with England (32%), Scotland (34%) and Wales (33%) being consistent though Wales saw a 10 point drop from 2014.

[Redcoat]

Coverage of 2G, 3G & 4G services across NI...

There's been no real change between 2014 & 2015 in terms of 2G coverage. 98.9% of premises in Northern Ireland can receive at least one 2G network based on outdoor coverage, leaving 1.1% in a mobile "not-spot". 91.7% can receive all three 2G networks.

2G Coverage 2014 & 2015

One         1.5
Two         5.8
Three       91.7
Total       98.9

3G coverage increased slightly, from 97.8% of premises being able to receive at least one network outdoors in 2014 to 98.6% in 2015. This is better than Scotland (97.1%) and Wales (97.9%).

There has also been an increase in the number of networks in some places with all four operators available from 63.3% in 2014 to 73.0% in 2015. This is better than Wales (67%) but worse than Scotland (78.9%).

3G Coverage 2014  2015

One         2.2   1.5
Two         9.0   7.3
Three       24.0  16.8
Four        63.3  73.0
Total       97.8  98.6

4G coverage has significantly increased across NI in the last year also. In the 2014 measurement this didn't include Vodafone & O2 which had only launched 4G networks after the June deadline for the report, meaning only EE was measured. Since then Vodafone & O2 have started & expanded 4G coverage here as well as EE also expanding. 3 have yet to launch any 4G coverage in Northern Ireland.

In 2014 79.2% of premises in NI were covered with an outdoor level 4G signal from at least one operator; that was higher than the UK average (71.8%) and even England with 74.9%. In 2015 91.1% of premises in NI are now covered, still above the UK average at 89.5%, now just behind England (92.1%) but still better than Scotland (79.7%) & Wales (62.8%).

4G Coverage 2014 2015

One         79.2 40.6
Two         0.0  5.5
Three       0.0  45.0
Four        0.0  0.0
Total       79.2 91.1

While in 2012 Northern Ireland was very much a mobile backwater compared to Britain with little 3G outside of cities and large towns, this has largely been rectified thanks to the expansion of MBNL from Britain which was built mainly from Orange's infrastructure, as well as a slightly lesser extent by O2 increasing their 3G coverage as well - increases in Vodafone's 3G coverage has largely been down to work done by Cornerstone so in many rural areas where work hasn't been carried out yet they are still mainly 2G only.

There of course is still room for improvement, but the different population geography in Northern Ireland compared to Britain mainly in having a significantly larger rural population as a percentage of its total (35% compared to a UK average of 12%), the costs of serving more of the population with better 3G & 4G coverage, let alone 2G, is subject to diminishing returns - notably in places where outdoor coverage is deemed adequate but where indoor coverage can be found wanting.

[swb1964]

Ok, I'm not sure if I'm reading those right but why is O2 so far ahead in NI?

[daveyfs]

I think it and its predecessor Cellnet have traditionally been the strongest operator there in terms of coverage.

Most people don't have the interest or inclination to change network as often as us lot on here - some never do - and that's probably the case in NI. Even though e.g. EE might be better there in terms of 4G coverage, most wouldn't care that much, or they'd see the PAC process, or whatever, as a faff, and stick with what they know.

[japaul]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redcoat

The main winners over the past year seem to be 3 - again I just can't understand how T-Mobile have made a significant increase in rural areas when the brand is being phased out and never has been popular in NI. O2 remains rather static in urban areas, but have taken a 7 point cut in rural areas. But they're back to roughly the same levels that they were in 2013 in general.

Redcoat, your instincts are probably right. Where I think you are going wrong is in the way you are interpreting the significance of movements. These are not actual figures from the networks but are based on a UK wide survey and like any survey, it needs to be read with appropriate margins of error in mind.

No doubt the survey has been properly conducted and the results weighted accordingly so the UK wide results will be pretty good with small margins of error. However once you start looking at the breaks you need to apply pretty large margins to the results so what you interpret as a movement one way, unless it's really large could, in reality, be a move in the opposite direction or no change at all. Not only that but the weighting is usually done so that the UK wide total is demographically correct but this won't necessarily apply to individual breaks.

Anyway, the data for 2015 is here where you can see the raw numbers (table 30 seems to contain most of it).

http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/bin...ta_Tables1.pdf

[InfamousTeal]

Thanks so much Redcoat, it's great to have a N.Ireland thread!
Really interesting to read all of that, thank you.

[1manonthebog]

O2 has the best coverage here in terms of 2G at least, you will get signal virtually everywhere hence why its so popular. The problem with this popularity is their data network is crippled, using H+ at work reminds me of the old days of using EDGE, things sitting spinning or timing out, A speed test of with results 0.1mb says it all. If you are lucky enough to come across a 4G signal don't get to excited, its still slower than EE 3G.

Recently front page on our local newspaper we had a headline about disruption planned due to O2 4G signal upgrade, now we've had EE 4G here for more than a year and this wasn't in the local paper.

I use both O2 and EE, EE is the superior network if you can get a signal, All towns and some rural areas are covered and I have a 4G Speed of 30mb+. But I was recently in Fermanagh and for large areas I had no signal, this is why most people stay with O2

[Redcoat]

Quote:

Originally Posted by japaul

Redcoat, your instincts are probably right. Where I think you are going wrong is in the way you are interpreting the significance of movements. These are not actual figures from the networks but are based on a UK wide survey and like any survey, it needs to be read with appropriate margins of error in mind.

No doubt the survey has been properly conducted and the results weighted accordingly so the UK wide results will be pretty good with small margins of error. However once you start looking at the breaks you need to apply pretty large margins to the results so what you interpret as a movement one way, unless it's really large could, in reality, be a move in the opposite direction or no change at all. Not only that but the weighting is usually done so that the UK wide total is demographically correct but this won't necessarily apply to individual breaks.

Anyway, the data for 2015 is here where you can see the raw numbers (table 30 seems to contain most of it).

http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/bin...ta_Tables1.pdf

Sorry for only getting back now japaul - you are right that without hard data from the networks, surveyed data is subject to margins of error but the Ofcom data is perhaps the best we've got in this regard especially allowing a market as small as Northern Ireland's. The T-Mobile figure is a major spanner thrower here though. Anecdotally, I'd believe the urban figures for 3 - not only from the network itself but also the old cross-border bolt-on for O2 was popular and that 3 have near enough replicated this with "Feel Like Home" especially in environs like Derry city where the border is right next door.

[Redcoat]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1manonthebog

O2 has the best coverage here in terms of 2G at least, you will get signal virtually everywhere hence why its so popular. The problem with this popularity is their data network is crippled, using H+ at work reminds me of the old days of using EDGE, things sitting spinning or timing out, A speed test of with results 0.1mb says it all. If you are lucky enough to come across a 4G signal don't get to excited, its still slower than EE 3G.

That's the problem if O2 being so popular. I seem to be reasonably fortunate that data on O2's network (using Lycamobile) is decent the majority of the time but there are occasions where it does grind right down, especially at certain times of the day like lunch hours & end of school days.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1manonthebog

Recently front page on our local newspaper we had a headline about disruption planned due to O2 4G signal upgrade, now we've had EE 4G here for more than a year and this wasn't in the local paper.

There's two good reasons for this. First, as I've bemoaned before, EE have been utterly terrible in promoting their recent 3G & 4G roll outs in Northern Ireland in the past 24 months, just an odd template-based press release here and there. Secondly - it really goes without saying but there are shitloads of people here on O2 and so a major disruption to their service in a localised area will mean a lot to people, more than any other network. There was approx 1.5 to 2 weeks of disruption in Omagh when they were upgrading several masts for 4G and additional 3G coverage on both O2 and Vodafone which was noted locally, but when EE switched on 4G in the town in spring last year there was no word in local media at all.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1manonthebog

I use both O2 and EE, EE is the superior network if you can get a signal, All towns and some rural areas are covered and I have a 4G Speed of 30mb+. But I was recently in Fermanagh and for large areas I had no signal, this is why most people stay with O2

I agree - however EE benefits from being pretty much uncongested in most places - I've an EE 4G sim (one of the 100GB promotional ones) and for much of the day I can hit 50 meg download speeds without problems. In Fermanagh, in Enniskillen and northern parts of the county north of Lower Lough Erne (Kesh, Ederney, Irvinestown) there's decent 3G & some 4G coverage overall but outside of this can be patchy. In Belleek out west, O2 & Vodafone are still 2G while EE & 3 have 3G but no 4G, in the south and east of the county aside from an area around the village of Kinawley O2 & Vodafone are 2G only in these places - EE & 3 have decent 3G coverage and EE have some spots with 4G available. Of course the big problem for coverage for EE & 3 is a highly dispersed rural population in Fermanagh along with in-building penetration. Once either network gets 800MHz 4G up and running in these places, this should hopefully give them a more level playing field.

[Redcoat]

Time to crunch numbers from the 2016 Ofcom regional report. First off, the share of the mobile market in NI...

(NI Total - NI Urban/NI Rural)

Network	 2016 share		Change from 2015

O2       (60 - 58/62)	        (-1 -2/0)
Vodafone (14 - 14/14)	        (+3 +5/-1)
EE       (7 - 7/6)		(0  +1/-1)
Orange   (2 - 2/1)		(-1 -1/-1)
T-Mobile (1 - 1/1)		(-1 +1/-4)
3        (8 - 8/6)		(+1 -2/+2)
Tesco    (5 - 4/6)		(+1 0/+1)
Virgin   (1 - 2/0)		(0  +1/0)
Other    (2 - 2/2)		(-1 -4/+2)
Unsure   (0 - 0/0)		(-1 -1/0)

EE Total (10 - 10/8)	        (-2 +1/-6)

No spectacular changes in the share of mobile networks in the past 12 months, O2 is still top dog here and in rural areas things look quite stable apart from the T-Mobile anomaly appears to have been ironed out. In urban areas Vodafone have appeared to gain new customers and are back to their number two position across the board in NI. 3 have slipped back a bit after getting the number two spot in urban areas last year though their overall share has had a slight increase. There's no sugar coating EE's stats, they're disappointing to have remained largely still and depending if you include Orange & T-Mobile customers then they are either third or fourth in NI whereas in Britain they're top dog. Tesco continue to be the top MVNO, with Virgin as usual not ranking highly.

[Redcoat]

The amount of PAYG mobile customers in NI continues to decline in common with trends across the UK though as a whole still has a slightly higher share compared to Britain, the consequence being that sim-only contracts are not as popular in NI.

Use type            09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

PAYG                68 64 65 60 49 48 43 34
Contract w/phone    27 29 29 35 40 40 51 60
Contract Sim Only   03 03 05 05 11 10 04 03
Contract Unsure     01 02 00 01 00 00 02 03
Unsure              00 02 00 00 00 02 00 00

Not shown here is that in the last 12 months the share of prepay customers in rural NI has fallen from 50% to 34%, a share drop of 16%.

There's certainly been a significant change among this share of customer type over the last 24 months in Northern Ireland.

[Redcoat]

And finally to outdoor coverage. 2G coverage seems to have reduced slightly for some odd reason compared to 2015, though the amount covered by at least one operator is pretty much the same...

2G Coverage 2015	2016

One         1.5		1.8
Two         5.8		9.6
Three       91.7	87.4
Total       98.9	98.8

...there is now an anomaly of 3G coverage being better than 2G! I would attribute a large part of this to where 3G coverage from all four networks has significantly increased being down to CTIL expansion by Telefonica bringing new O2 and/or Vodafone 3G services to sites that are upgraded...

3G Coverage 2014	2015	2016

One         2.2   	1.5     0.6
Two         9.0   	7.3	2.6
Three       24.0  	16.8	7.6
Four        63.3  	73.0	88.6
Total       97.8  	98.6	99.4

...meanwhile Northern Ireland now has over 99% outdoor population 4G coverage from at least one mobile network - all four networks have been busy over the last 12 months with expanding their 4G coverage footprint including 3, whom hadn't even started by the time of the 2015 report!

4G Coverage 2014	2015	2016

One         79.2 	40.6	2.6
Two         0.0  	5.5	4.7
Three       0.0  	45.0	32.2
Four        0.0  	0.0	59.9
Total       79.2 	91.1	99.3

[iTech]

Great thread. Just spend 2 weeks in NI and my experience of using Vodafone, Three and EE are that EE 4G is pretty extensive but Vodafone looks to be the same level of coverage. For Three, 4G is pretty sparse. I stuck with Three overall though as I found that Vodafone's service, although showing as high 4G coverage in some areas was a bit hit and miss for essential tasks such as Pokemon Go and I don't have much data allowance with EE.

[CheshireBumpkin]

Quote:

Originally Posted by iTech

essential tasks such as Pokemon Go

Sorry, each to their own...

[chattyuk]

I thought that o2 would be in the lead but not by that much.

When I was in school I remember everybody being on o2 payg as it was a pretty good deal at the time. Their 2G coverage is excellent but 3G/4G rollout is terrible.

I remember getting my first 3G phone in 2004 and Three covered my town. O2 (Who the majority of my friends/family used) didn't provide 3G in my town until 2012ish.

From a contract/cost point of view I'm also surprised they're still leading, I can't say I've ever found a good deal compared to the other networks every time I've went for a new sim/phone.

[1manonthebog]

Quote:

Originally Posted by chattyuk

I thought that o2 would be in the lead but not by that much.

When I was in school I remember everybody being on o2 payg as it was a pretty good deal at the time. Their 2G coverage is excellent but 3G/4G rollout is terrible.

I remember getting my first 3G phone in 2004 and Three covered my town. O2 (Who the majority of my friends/family used) didn't provide 3G in my town until 2012ish.

From a contract/cost point of view I'm also surprised they're still leading, I can't say I've ever found a good deal compared to the other networks every time I've went for a new sim/phone.

People over here think there is no better network than O2, they are brain washed. My local newspaper did a feature recently about o2 starting to roll out 4g in the area. We've had EE 4g for 3 years now and it never got a mention.

[Redcoat]

Quote:

Originally Posted by chattyuk

I thought that o2 would be in the lead but not by that much.

There's a line of thinking in Northern Ireland in general of better the devil you know - that just doesn't apply to mobile networks but also other utilities.

Quote:

Originally Posted by chattyuk

Their 2G coverage is excellent but 3G/4G rollout is terrible.

I disagree. Particularly west of the Bann (as this is the core of my local knowledge) the Telefonica-led CTIL O2/Vodafone roll out has been pretty extensive and O2 don't have too many 2G only masts where no 3G is available at present. They're still applying for new sites as well, for example one for a neighbouring village of mine got approved a couple of weeks ago while my own has two separate CTIL sites upgraded to 2G/3G/4G. There's still some holes in coverage especially in parts of Mid-Tyrone and South Fermanagh, but I expect these will be given attention in due course - their 95% indoor coverage obligation due date of the end of 2017 is slowly creeping up.

Quote:

Originally Posted by chattyuk

I remember getting my first 3G phone in 2004 and Three covered my town. O2 (Who the majority of my friends/family used) didn't provide 3G in my town until 2012ish.

Until 2012 much of NI didn't have 3G from any network! Coverage outside of the cities and main towns was non-existent. 3 had arguably the best 3G coverage in 2011 but it wasn't anything to write home about.
The turnaround in much of the place going from a mainly 2G GPRS backwater by all the networks to fairly extensive 3G & 4G coverage from at least one operator and three or four in many cases in the space of four years has been a sign of steady progress by all MNOs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by chattyuk

From a contract/cost point of view I'm also surprised they're still leading, I can't say I've ever found a good deal compared to the other networks every time I've went for a new sim/phone.

Two things - as I said, the better the devil you know. Secondly I know that O2 Open often make good deals for those whom can take advantage of them.

[Redcoat]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1manonthebog

People over here think there is no better network than O2, they are brain washed. My local newspaper did a feature recently about o2 starting to roll out 4g in the area. We've had EE 4g for 3 years now and it never got a mention.

To be fair, the difference is something I have mentioned time and time again - O2 actually have a decent PR department that contacts the local press and given the network's popularity it'll likely attract interest especially in places that have been hampered by a "digital divide" where even >2Mbps internet access and anything beyond 2G phone coverage is a novelty. On the other hand EE's PR in NI has been invisible and unfortunately seem to have taken more to the prior T-Mobile approach to the local telecoms market rather than that of prior Orange whom at least at one time were reasonably popular in urban areas of NI especially around Belfast. If EE aren't going to bother their arse advertising how good their network is locally nor target the likes of local newspapers with relevant press releases then no bloody wonder they trail here and their customer figures in NI are stagnant at best - and I say that as an EE customer!

[pad-e]

O2's 4G coverage is in my area, but there are many places around it where you can't get 4G or even 3G and these are built up, populated areas. The fact that you could be driving down the road enjoying 4G and suddenly you drop to 2G is annoying. Their 2G coverage is very good, but they still have quite a few 3G and 4G blackspots, especially in the southern counties and I'm not talking about places near the border with ROI. I hope they finally fill these in, as I have mostly always been with O2. I did switch to EE for the 4G coverage and it worked out very well but then I discovered I would usually only get 4G or nothing, the phone never seemed to go to 2G or 3G so I was left with no signal a lot, so ended up going back to O2 after they finally installed 4G here.