Last year and the year before I started a thread on Contenders - Dark Horses - Duffers after the first dance. We were as the year before pretty accurate.

I do wonder this year if our perceptions before we have see even done one step if we will be as accurate.

So here is my grouping:

Contenders
Helen
Georgia
Jay
Peter
Jamelia - though she wont win as I dont think her personality will win voters.

Dark Horses
Anthony
Kirsty
Kellie

Middle of the road
Anita
Iwan
Jeremy (depending on pro he could be good or a duffer)
Ainsley

Duffers
Carol
Katie
Daniel

Contenders:
Georgia May Foote
Helen George
Jamelia
Jay McGuinness
Peter Andre

Dark Horses:
Anita Rani
Kellie Bright
Kirsty Gallacher

Middle of the Road-ers:
Ainsley Harriott
Anthony Ogogo
Iwan Thomas
Katie Derham

Duffers:
Carol Kirkwood
Daniel O'Donnell
Jeremy Vine

Will probably change after the launch show though, as they could all move up a stage with the right pros, and then of course there's the group dance to properly gauge their dancing abilities for the first time.

I've not seen any of them dance yet but I saw Anita on a programme about the Indian railways yesterday and I noticed that she walks liked she's cacked her pants, so my prediction is..
Anita = duffer.

Contenders:
Georgia May Foote
Helen George
Jamelia
Jay McGuinness
Peter Andre

Dark Horses:
Anita Rani
Kellie Bright
Kirsty Gallacher
Ainsley Harriott
Katie Derham


Middle of the Road-ers:
Carol Kirkwood
Iwan Thomas
Daniel O'Donnell
Anthony Ogogo


Duffers:
Jeremy Vine

Contenders
Helen
Jay
Peter

Good dancers but probably won't win due to personality
Georgia
Jamelia
Kirsty

Dark Horses
Kellie
Iwan
Ainsley

Middle of the road
Anita
Carol
Katie
Jeremy (As long as he doesn't get lots of latins at the start)

Duffers
Anthony
Daniel

I wouldn't be surprised if Anita has done some Indian dance styles. She can move her hips well.

Contenders:
Georgia May Foote
Helen George
Jamelia
Jay McGuinness
Peter Andre

Dark Horses:
Anita Rani
Kellie Bright
Katie Derham

Middle of the Road-ers:
Ainsley Harriott
Anthony Ogogo
Iwan Thomas
Kirsty Gallacher
Carol Kirkwood

Duffers:
Daniel O'Donnell
Jeremy Vine

Contenders:
Georgia
Helen
Jamelia
Jay
Peter

Dark Horses:
Anita
Kellie
Kirsty
Ainsley
Katie

Middle of the Road-ers:
Carol
Jeremy
Daniel

Duffers:
Iwan
Anthony

Not seen her dance, as I said, but I think the way a person walks is relative to how they dance in many cases.
For example, I never noticed before she was on Strictly that Rachel Riley can't walk in very high heels but watching her now on EOOTCDC it sticks out like a sore thumb.
My theory might be total rubbish and Anita might wow us all. We'll see.

Contenders:
Georgia
Peter
Jay
Jamelia
Helen
Dark Horses:
Kellie
Ainsley
Anthony
Kirsty
Iwan
Middle of the road:
Carol
Katie
Anita
Duffers:
Jeremy
Daniel

I'm expecting a high standard this year! The only ones I can imagine being consistently bad are Daniel and Jeremy, I think all the others have potential.

Rachel was a sporty tomboy girl, so Strictly was not an easy transition for her. I don't think she was a duffer - her Waltz, Quickstep and AS were good, but she struggled with the Latin dances. Not easy to dance when you have blisters like these.
http://www.pointfm.co.uk/wp-content/...1/440761_1.jpg

Pretty much agree with all of these.
I really think Ainsley might surprise a few people and be better than expected, provided he doesn't get a partner who treats him like the comedy contestant.
I also think that Antony - perhaps because of his injury, might be much worse than some people expect.

Contenders

Jay
Helen
Georgia
Kirsty
Kellie

Dark Horses

Katie
Peter
Anita
Ainsley
Iwan

Middlers

Jamelia
Carol
Daniel
Anthony

Duffers

Jeremy

Contenders:

Peter- because you just know Mr. Smarmy has been having secret lessons since being asked!

Jay- Boybands seem to do ok, will probably lumber through a heavy footed Jive before going on a journey and finishing with a 40/40 Ballroom.

Jamelia- will be fierce, her Tango/Paso will whip judges into a frenzy, probably won't win but consistently in the top 3. Shock bottom 2 appearance gets bounce-back vote to see her through to final!

Helen- Comes out as the complete package, my tip to win.

Kirsty- Best dancer, but some stupid members of the public/forum won't "warm to her" because she's young, talented and probably a decent dancer, so won't win. Cue outrage from people who know what they're talking about lamenting the end of Strictly as a dance contest (again).

Dark Horses:

Ainsley- Just keep shimmying!

Georgia- Bright start, fades away to mid table when energy isn't enough to earn scores! Gets awkward doing Rumba but does a good job. Consistently gets 8s without really challenging for 10s.

Anthony- Can probably dance but spends 7 weeks learning how to smile in a Foxtrot without it looking like he's the infamous clown murderer.

Iwan- Thom Evans potential, stiff hold in ballroom but will capture everyone's imagination with a sexy salsa masking obvious deficiencies of talent, but your mum likes him so you vote for him!

Middle of the road:

Carol- Good ballroom, middling to non existent Latin, but fun. More likeable Allison Hammond type.

Katie- Quiet, dignified, the idea of doing a Samba leaves her pushing Tess out of the way to grab the whiskey bottle, but nails a Foxtrot causing Len to pickle his Walnuts.

Anita- Young and bouncy but with two left feet. No shock when she's gone by week 5!

Kellie- Goes for the Jake levels of "fun", backfires, shock elimination, fury as duffer outlives her, causing voting to fall back in line with Judges' scores.

Duffers:

Daniel- I can see him doing a really nice Waltz week 1, scoring 6s and 7s, finishing mid table, then doing a Jive week 2 and it all going wrong from there...

Jeremy- Scott Mills with a dodgy hip...

Contenders
Jay
Peter
Helen
Jamelia (almost guaranteed dance off fodder though)
Georgia

Dark Horses
Ainsley
Katie
Kirsty
Kellie

Middle roaders
Daniel (ballroom only)
Anita

Duffers
Jeremy
Iwan
Anthony

[quote=Damahepa;79441380]Contenders:


No you don't know that he has at all. Unless you can provide evidence to back it up it is pretty unfair to claim that he has.

It's just something people who dislike him are putting out there just incase he turns out to be really good and rather than acknowledge it they have their excuses ready...Of course he's good, he's had loads more practice than the others, he's been having secret lessons... It's laughable!

Besides, it doesn't matter how many lessons a person has, if there is absolutely no talent there in the first place it's not going to matter one jot. A person who has two left feet and no natural rhythm is never going to be a great dancer, regardless of how many lessons they have.

If you want to go down that road, how do you know that none of the others haven't been having "secret lessons"? Why do you "just know" that it's PA that has been having secret lessons? Because it's far preferable to believe that than to admit that he is genuinely good?

To accuse a contestant of cheating (with absolutely no evidence) just because you don't like that person is pretty low.

Deleted, double post...

Just going out on a hunch, I don't think you understand sarcasm... I'm not being serious deary! He's not my first choice to win but I don't particularly hold anything against Mr Andre, I just imagine Mr. Reality TV would take it a little more seriously than the others since his continued career relies on him doing well in these shows!

Contenders

Georgia May Foote
Helen George
Jay McGuiness
Katie Derham

Also good dancers but not popular enough to win

Jamelia Davis
Peter Andre
Kirsty Gallagher

Middle of the road

Kellie Bright
Carol Kirkwood
Jeremy Vine
Ainsley Harriott
Iwan Thomas

Duffers
Anita Rani
Daniel O’Donnell
Anthony Ogogo

Truth will out on Group dance the launch show and better predictions can be made. Some boxers have been useless but Floyd Mayweather was excellent on DWTS so Anthony Ogogo is unpredictable. Kirsty Gallagher might get tagged with the good dancer but too competitive tag, a la Gabby Logan. Iwan Thomas might have been thought of as a duffer but is rumoured to be quite good. Katie Derham may turn out to be a similar standard to Susanna Reid but not so much up herself and as such a contender.

Why would he take it more seriously than the others, his career does not rely solely on him doing well in SCD.....at the end of the day he will still have his ITV contract and still have his recording contract.

I'm sure he loves being the face of Iceland... He'll be looking for something of more prominence I'm sure!

Hard to call on the duffers . Those you kind of expect to be good can actually be a huge let down and then the ones we think will be duffers go storming into the finals .

OK, if I had to choose duffers, then Carol and Antony . For some reason boxers are often dreadful , yet great big rugby players have been terrific .That's the beauty of Strictly , the surprise packages .

I'm not at all sure about most of them but I don't think Daniel will be a duffer. Rather a middler. I think Carol will be a duffer. Iwan could be a middler or a duffer; I like him and hope he is a middler with a good personality who will stay for a long while.

So, there seems to be a fairly strong consensus that Helen, Georgia, Jay, Peter and Jamelia will still be around at the business end of the competition; Kellie, Ainsley or Kirsty are the most likely dark horses; Daniel and Jeremy are the obvious duffers; and the rest will probably be middle-of-the-road?

With Katie dividing opinion (CONTENDER! DUFFER!), yes.