Contenders

Jay
Georgia
Peter
Kirsty
Helen

Dark Horses

Ainsley
Daniel (never under-estimate the power of the Blue Rinse Brigade)
Anita

Middle of the Road

Anthony
Iwan
Jamelia
Katie
Carol
Kellie
Jeremy

No duffers at all this year - certainly no obvious comedy contestant

Contenders (at least from the start, I think these three are all locks)
Georgia May Foote
Helen George
Jay McGuiness

Dark Horses
Iwan Thomas - athletes usually do well, out of all the different types of sportsmen, I think they're usually better adapted than, say, boxers or tennis players (hence Denise Lewis and Jade Johnson both did well)
Kellie Bright
Kirsty Gallacher - apparently she's good friends with Gabby Logan. Hopefully the Great British Public have gotten kinder to competitive female sports presenters since. (I think not being partnered with James Jordan will be an immense bonus)
Jamelia - I dunno if she was one of the more choreographed 00s popstars out there?
Peter Andre - he'll have moves, but maybe not the polish right away

Middle of the Road
Ainsley Harriott - move him up to dark horse if he can do ballroom. The Latin's going to be a hoot, though.
Anita Rani
Anthony Ogogo
Carol Kirkwood
Katie Derham - I love how the most nonchalant signing is causing so much ruckus on these forums

Duffers
Daniel O'Donnell
Jeremy Vine

I can't judge without having seen any of them dance but forced choice:

Duffers:

Daniel
Ainsley
Jeremy

I can't imagine any of them being graceful

Contenders/ringers(!):
Jay - what's that, Jay? You studied contemporary dance at college? Yep, I'm going with big, old ringer there!
Georgia May - childhood ballet and child actress, I refuse to believe she didn't do a bunch of dance classes beyond just the '5 year old ballet' thing that they all spin.
Peter - I'd put good money on it that he has had some sneaky ballroom classes in the run-up.

The rest are in it 'for the experience' (i.e the money), or are natural hard workers, and will put in the long slog to improve. Iwan, Kirstie, Katie and Helen are the most likely genuine 'improvers'.

The duffers are Carol, Jeremy and Daniel - for sure!

Contenders
Helen
Georgia
Jay
Anthony

Contenders lacking popularity
Peter
Jamelia

Dark Horses
Kirsty
Kellie
Katie
Ainsley

Middle of the road
Iwan
Carol

Duffers
Anita
Jeremy
Daniel

Contenders:
Georgia May Foote, Peter Andre, Jay McGuinness, Kirsty Gallacher, Helen George

Dark Horses:
Iwan Thomas, Anthony Ogogo, Jamelia,

Middle of the Road-ers:
Anita Rani, Ainsley Harriott, Kellie Bright

Duffers:
Daniel O'Donnell, Jeremy Vine, Katie Derham, Carol Kirkwood

Really wouldn't be suprised if Iwan turns out to be pretty decent and while I think Jamelia will dance well I'm not sure if she'll win.

Would really like to see Katie and Carol do well but can see Katie leaving early sadly and Carol not being the best dancer ever. Will be happy to be proved wrong.

Hope we get to see Ainsley's Samba at some point.

It was not count for anything, but Ainsley's father was a jazz musician, so he grew up in a musical household. http://www.theguardian.com/music/201...ester-harriott

Contenders
Helen
Georgia
Jay
Peter
Jamelia - though she wont win as I dont think her personality will win voters.

Dark Horses
Ainsley As long as his partner reigns him in a bit.
Kirsty - but I'm not sure she'll be top 5


Middle of the road
Anita
Anthony - injury issues
Kellie - I think she'll go in the middle, but be quite good.

Duffers
Jeremy
Katie
Daniel

Contenders

Jay
Helen
Peter
Kirsty ( but I really can see her being tagged with the Gabby Logan brush having seen her on The Games where she came across as uber competitive and quite unlike able)
Jamelia (this seasons Alesha - but not as likeable)
Georgia May

Dark Horses
Ainsley
Katie

Middle of the road

The rest - although I can see Jeremy, Anthony and Daniel bringing up the rear

After launch show this is my revision:

Contenders [/b]
Peter
Jamelia - though she wont win as I dont think her personality will win voters.
Helen

Dark Horses
Jay - he is no front runner that is for sure! But he could become good
Kellie - she was quite good and with her pro could do very well in terms of lasting but not necessarily win.
Katie
Georgia - she very well could go to middle or contender - depends on Giovanni

Middle of the road
Anthony - Oti is an unknown quantity he could go either way.
Anita
Kirsty
Iwan
Ainsley

Duffers
Carol
Jeremy
Daniel

Contenders:

Peter - A bit over the top, but obviously he's got some moves!
Jamelia - Already adding her own personal style into moves...it's a good sign!
Kellie - Clearly had some training, she looks good. Hoping the hectic schedule won't mean under-prepared performances.
Helen - Clean and precise movement, she might need to loosen up a bit more though for the salsa and samba.

Dark Horses:

Katie - Graceful, had decent rhythm and kept up with her partner...could go far with Anton (though doubt it'll be past the Semis)
Anita - Watched her closely and her movements were similar to Helen's, but slightly less clean. Could end up doing all right if she pushes herself.
Jay - The previous training is obviously a big plus, and I think nerves just got the better of him on this occasion. Hopefully as he loosens up, the performances will be promising!
Georgia - Didn't see much of her during the dance, but the little I did see looked promising. She went up into that lift easily in the ending pose.

Middle of the road:

Kirsty - Looked terrified, but wasn't completely hopeless...fingers crossed Brendan can inspire some confidence in her.
Ainsley - Will obviously be a great performer, and can move his hips...will definitely need some reigning in and finessing though if he wants to go far.
Anthony - Seemed ok but didn't get much of a chance to see him, so undecided on ability for me.
Iwan - bit frantic, but Ola could use it to her advantage and incorporate some lifts and quirky moves.

Duffers:

Carol - She looked totally lost in a couple of parts. It's understandable, considering her job involves standing still and having a fixed camera on you. She might be able to do a somewhat decent ballroom, but not much hope for Latin.

Jeremy - Don't have high hopes here.

Daniel - Didn't see much of him, but what I did see looked poor.

It depends if you mean just dance ability or appeal to voters as well. I think:

Contenders, i.e. will score highly with the judges and whose popularity will be untested for weeks:
Peter
Jamelia
Helen
Georgia
Kellie

(Kirstie could be a judges' pet or a dark horse I'm not sure)

I think if one of those turns out to also have big public appeal they will walk it - but they are all capable of coming across rude/fake/manic/cold if they're not careful. I'd put Peter first as he can dance and he's the most experienced at reality TV and knows the traps.)

Learners:
Jay - if he's as stiff as he looked when I could see him in the group dance, forget it. But if that was misleading or nerves and he can improve, I can see him having quite tough judges' comments and scores but that sometimes increases people's vote from the public. Masses depends on if he and Aliona get on. He seems such a sweetheart but he could be Thom levels of disappointment if he turns out not to be able to dance - and Thom got better but he couldn't get over that initial disappointment of his first dance in people's minds. I hope he's going to surprise us.
Anthony - same again, could be stiff and awkward but if he can dance or can learn he'll be liked for it. His injury makes it tough for him though. Oti is an unknown quantity, but I think they look a good team.
Katie - I think there is a big part of the voters that would like to see Anton do well, and that and her ability could take them far. Or Anton won't be able to stop clowning and they won't click as a partnership, not sure yet.
Anita - I really like her, but it depends on if they can work as a partnership. Gleb was a bit underwhelming to me on the launch show.
Ainsley - I think he can dance, he certainly seems musical and Natalie's a fantastic teacher. But he's likely to get stuck with a lot of the stupid props and stunts, and he might be annoying.
Iwan - he's determined and a sports man and I don't think anyone understand what gets votes better than Ola. However, he needs to calm down a bit - I really like him and even I was thinking 'OK OK enough with the stuff about taking your shirt off now...'

Duffers
Daniel, Carol and Jeremy - but I think they are all likeable, popular and charming, so if their pros can get a nice ballroom out of them, they might not be first gone. Jeremy looks the most likely to go first for me but I hope not. I'm assuming it's going to be two dances before the vote this time, so they each need the ballroom on the week people vote, not the Latin.

Contenders
Georgia
Peter – this year’s preferred winner I think
Anita
Kirsty
Kellie

Dark Horses
Jay – needs to overcome the nerves
Helen – not showing enough personality so far
Jamelia – if she has ability it might overcome the preconceptions viewers have around her.
Anthony – injury permitting

Meh
Iwan – too cocky, style over substance?
Katie – don’t think she’s the potential champion everybody is hoping for Anton
Ainsley – he’ll be fun but not a contender

Duffers
Carol
Daniel
Jeremy

Contenders

Kellie & Kevin
Georgia & Giovanni
Helen & Aljaz

Contenders, but with questionable support

Peter & Janette
Jamelia & Tristan

Who the hell knows?

Jay & Aliona

Dark Horses

Katie & Anton
Ainsley & Natalie
Anthony & Oti
Anita & Gleb

Middling

Kirsty & Brendan
Carol & Pasha
Iwan & Ola

Duffers

Daniel & Kristina
Jeremy & Karen

what does the who the hell knows category means ?
I agree with the rest of your ranking and I like how you seperated the contenders in 2 categories

It means that, after the Launch Show, I simply can't tell where he'll fall. He has previous training, but he just froze during the group dance, so perhaps nerves will cripple him a la Victoria Pendleton.

He could be a contender, but he could also be a duffer, or anything in between, so I'll stick him in the "Who the hell knows?" category for now.

I think this is fairly spot on on all counts

Even the "who the hell knows" statement

After week 1 my revision: (in no particular order)

Contenders
Peter - unlikely that he will win with Janette (maybe that was deliberate from the producers?)
Helen - she is a bit of disappointment in terms of personality, I thought she would have more spark when she is not in caracter.
Georgia - I believe she is going to be good throuout and possibly make it to the final, but like Dani and Chelsee unlikely to win.
Katie - she is a good dancer, perfect for anton, and sh is likeable (irritates me, but I believe the majority will like her) so that combined could be in with a strong chance.
Anita - good dancer, likeable, and an attractive new pro. That has been a winning combination in the past.

Dark Horses
Jay - the reason he is not a contender is his nerves and his lack of performance. However his technique seems improving fast and probably can learn to dominate the other two.
Kellie - she was quite good but I believe people will get tired of the couple
Anthony - if his shoulder gets better, he is in with a small chance. Oti is fabuluos and I think a lot of people will warm up to them.

Middle of the road
Jamelia
Kirsty
Ainsley

Duffers
Carol
Jeremy
Daniel
Iwan