I honestly believe that Daniel will win this year. A lot of ppl are really underestimating his HUGE fan base.

This year's winner will win through popularity and not for their dancing.

Jay McGuiness & Aliona Vilani 18,239 views

Daniel O'Donnell & Kristina Rihanoff 17,476 views

Peter Andre & Janette 16,646 views

Katie Derham & Anton Du Beke 14,496 views

Anita Rani & Gleb Savchenko 13,321 views

Ainsley Harriott & Natalie Lowe 11,157 views

Helen George & Aljaz Skorjanec 10,339 views

Georgia May Foote & Giovann 8,842 views

Kellie Bright & Kevin Clifton 8,546 views

Jamelia & Tristan 8,124 views

Iwan Thomas & Ola Jordan 6,179 views

Kirsty Gallacher & Brendan Cole 5,325 views

Anthony Ogogo & Oti Mabuse 4,217 views

Carol Kirkwood & Pasha Kovalev 3,444 views

Jeremy Vine & Karen Clifton 3,318 views

I actually would love to see him in the finals . Didn't think much of him before the launch show but he's actually one of my favorites. I hope he last as long as possible . Not surprised to see him so popular.

Depends on what you look for. On the strictly facebook his vids are amongst the most watched, but he has very few likes for his dances.

Almost everybody was down on the number of likes from last week (big exception being Jay).

These are the estimated likes (don't have facebook, so can't see back most of last week dances; numbers are mainly based on my own from page 1) after the first two dances:


1. Peter & Janette - 19.495 likes
2. Jay & Aliona - 18.413 likes
3. Katie & Anton - 15.272 likes
4. Anita & Gleb - 14.667 likes
5. Helen & Aljaz - 13.516 likes
6. Kelly & Kevin - 9.733 likes
7. Ainsley & Natalie - 8.006 likes
8. Georgia & Giovanni - 7.466 likes
9. Anthony & Oti - 7.136 likes
10. Daniel & Kristina - 6.159 likes
11. Jeremy & Karen - 4.850 likes
12. Carol & Pasha - 4.754 likes
13. Kirsty & Brendan - 3.593 likes
14. Iwan & Ola - 3.553 likes
15. Jamelia & Tristan - 1.649 likes

(also keeping in mind that 3 out of the top 5 lost at least 5000 likes this week compared to last week; both Anita & Helen dropped two places).

Expect the two boys to run away with it this week, but it will be interesting to see which of the girls will come out on top (eventually). The top being the bronze medal, in this case

I have been checking some YouTube numbers and crunching some more.
What I am finding really interesting is what Sherlock is pointing at, the disparity of some contestants between their YouTube views and the likesof said videos.
As Mr Holmes notices, Daniel and Pete have very high viewing numbers, but have a relative low like rate. In contrast Jay and Aisnley have a much more closer conversion rate of views per like. (Basically what you want in social media is engaging so what is important usually is not so much the views but how many of those views you have to get in order to get a like. the lower the number of views per like the better as it means a higher percentage of people are engaged)

As a guide, for the week 2 the average is 146 views per like, Pete gets a like per 186 views (in 11th place), Daniel 192 views (in 14th, only Iwan has a more expensive proportion at 275 views per like), while Kellie has a like per 87 views (2nd) or Aisnley 95 views per like (3rd), Katie's 115 and in first position you have Jay that gets 55 views per like.

Week 1, again Jay is 1st with a 86 views per like (he has the highest number of likes but only 5th in actual views), Aisnley is second with 156 (12th per actual views), carol 3rd (206 per views, Daniel is 8th (241 per views, 3rd per actual views) and Pete is last with 1 like per 598 views- overall second in actual views after Georgia (who in turn is 9th in conversion rate with 246 views per like).

Not I am not sure what this means, but I would guess it can mean four things of the top of my head. the less views per likes the higher the engagement is, viewing is cheap, liking means an approving move. Second it can also mean that more real numbers of people are watching, you can watch as many times as you want but if you are log in, you can only like once. Thirdly, it could mean also that Daniels and Pete fans are ashamed of publicly liking it or fourthly, that their core fans don't understand the technology's do the value of liking!

Just checked the likes on Facebook and this is the top 5:
1-Jay with a whopping 13451 likes
2-Katie 7328 likes
3-Peter 6055 likes
4-Ainsley with 5511 likes
5-Anita with 4228 likes.


Interesting. ...

Are you a statistician ? Loved this analysis. Very interesting.

Thanks!
Not statistician But love percentages and statistics (that is why I love cricket) as they give a niche better in depth understanding of numbers.

I will be crunching the facebook numbers later on today.

Pleasantly surprised to see Jay so far ahead with lies but happy my top 5 are popular of Facebook hope that translates into votes

It's interesting to see all of these stats, isn't it? Amazing that Daniel is pushing for the top spot with YouTube views this week, but further down on Facebook likes.

If I have time later, I might update the YT numbers to see if his Charleston has overtaken Jay's waltz.

I have crunched the facebook numbers.its all different! As per "loose" social media rules, comments means engagements yet they can be negative too. I wan is at the top of the list with lowest likes per comments (3 likes per comment). While Jay is at the bottom (24 likes per comment). Except Katie (is in 7th) and her comments are positive, the higher the engagement the lower the marking is.
Maybe this just proofs how negative facebook it tends to be!

At the moment Jay is only 700 views ahead!!!!
The power of the DOD!!

Thank you for that it was really interesting. And in my case quite enlightening. I should perhaps own up and say I have never liked anything in my life. .

I would think the BIB is a major factor in the apparent disparity between views and likes. If I like I watch again and again...and again. I have now watched Anton and Katie 3 times. I have watched Helen/Aljaz, Daniel and Kristina, Jay and Aliona and Peter and Janette once each. I didn't 'like' any of them. I have watched Karen Hardy and Marks AT hundreds of times and never 'liked' it once.

Is this making sense?

These are the current YouTube viewings. The only difference in positions is that Kellie and Jamelia have both overtaken Georgia.

Jay & Aliona - 23,922 views
Daniel & Kristina - 22,863 views
Peter & Janette - 21,355 views
Katie & Anton - 19,835 views
Anita & Gleb - 16,221 views
Ainsley & Natalie - 14,489 views
Helen & Aljaz - 12, 510 views
Kellie & Kevin - 10,638 views
Jamelia & Tristan - 10,197 views
Georgia & Giovanni - 9,574 views
Iwan & Ola - 8,207 views
Kirsty & Brendan - 6,554 views
Anthony & Oti - 4,449 views
Carol & Pasha - 3,616 views
Jeremy & Karen 3,374 views

Makes perfect sense.

Lol at Daniel and Jay being neck in neck

haha GForce ain't so popular

Current Youtube views week 2

Jay 31,761
Daniel 29,862
Pete 27,947
Katie 25,866
Ainsley 21,671
Helen 20,515
Anita 19,887
Georgia 14,561
Kellie 14,482
Jamelia 13,166
Iwan 10,648
Kirsty 9,919
Anthony 6,030
Jeremy 5,118
Carol 4,825

Thursday Am YouTube views % Views YouTube Likes % Likes YouTube dislikes % Dislikes Net likes
Jay 31,761 12.4 438 25.5 5 4.2 433
Daniel 29,862 11.7 119 6.9 5 4.2 114
Pete 27,947 10.9 122 7.1 21 17.6 101
Katie 25,866 10.1 189 11.0 7 5.9 182
Ainsley 21,671 8.5 165 9.6 6 5.0 159
Helen 20,515 8.0 107 6.2 8 6.7 99
Anita 19,887 7.8 145 8.4 7 5.9 138
Georgia 14,561 5.7 98 5.7 8 6.7 90
Kellie 14,482 5.7 118 6.9 2 1.7 116
Jamelia 13,166 5.1 58 3.4 10 8.4 48
Iwan 10,648 4.2 34 2.0 25 21.0 9
Kirsty 9,919 3.9 49 2.8 8 6.7 41
Anthony 6,030 2.4 28 1.6 1 0.8 27
Jeremy 5,118 2.0 30 1.7 1 0.8 29
Carol 4,825 1.9 21 1.2 5 4.2 16


Facebook
Thursday PM Facebook likes Facebook comments Conversion of comments per likes SHARES % Likes % Comments % Shares
Jay 13,504 1488 9 535 23 23 26
Katie 7,361 971 8 265 12 15 13
Pete 6,071 538 11 286 10 8 14
Ainsley 5,536 444 12 189 9 7 9
Anita 4,238 361 12 92 7 5 4
Helen 3,962 313 13 152 7 5 7
Kellie 3,740 251 15 89 6 4 4
Georgia 2,949 217 14 72 5 3 3
Carol 2,335 241 10 61 4 4 3
Iwan 1,911 550 3 58 3 8 3
Anthony 1,874 155 12 47 3 2 2
Daniel 1,848 313 6 101 3 5 5
Kirsty 1,711 262 7 56 3 4 3
Jamelia 1,660 298 6 46 3 5 2
Jeremy 1,246 175 7 36 2 3 2

I know that is a lot of mixed numbers. But makes a fascinating reading.

Some notes Facebook

from Monday to Thursday most pairings increase their likes by ten or so, except for Aisnley +22, Pete +17, Katie +33 and Jay +46.

The increase of comments is a bit more noticeable. If we take out the increase of Jay, the average is 2 new comments (Helen with +8 and Katie with +7). However Jay gets: 938. Not a typo nine hundred and thirty eight new comments. And mostly positive (I havent read them al, obviously!)

I dindt put the Shares on monday, but I have this time. Ahead again Jay with 535 (26% of the total shares), followed by Pete 286 (14%) and Katie 265 (13%).

Shares have more value than comments or likes, but I would imagine that has also something to do with demographics.

It's interesting to see such a defined "Top 3" forming so early, not just in these figures but on this forum in general (if you squint a bit ).

If all stays even, it could become a contest as to who comes 4th behind Katie, Peter, and Jay.

(Daniel's popular, but the judges are a bit more muted, so I can see him leaving Week 8/9/10).

very interesting.

the only dances i watched again were katie and anton and ainsley and natalie.

astonished that dearme o'dearme is so popular, and i suspect is is popularity.

with peter andre, i suspect the low likes to views ratio could be something to do with the people who profess to hate him, but seem to know everything about every aspect of his life, and can't get enough of him!

Ok, that's my favourite name so far.

its a name that invites endless reinventions...

Remember this is only week 2 social media. Week 1 is altogether different. I havent got the Facebook data on week 1, the Youtube data I will try to crunch later on.


Though Pete has got a big handicap in Janette. The perception is that she doesn't know enough ballroom to teach well or choreograph it with finesse so it should start slowing his progress in the future.