It's a tough call this year. Based on marks/personalities I'd say it's between: Jeremy, Carol, Jamelia, Kirsty, Iwan and Ainsley.
Both Jeremy and Carol are probably likeable enough to appeal to the audience and avoid being in the first bottom two, although I may change that opinion if they get an early slot with a 'straigtforward' Ballroom that may not be particularly memorable.
With a Latin that should suit her personality a little more, Jamelia could very well also be okay on the merit of leaderboard position. That leaves Kirsty, Iwan and Ainsley also doing Latin and I suspect Ainsley will probably go down the semi-comedy route and just about get through. Iwan will probably do the whole routine with his shirt off, but being 'hot' may not be enough for him, while I generally expert Kirsty to be awful at the Salsa.
That leaves me thinking Iwan vs. Kirsty. I'm leaning more towards Kirsty at the moment, which I didn't expect to be saying before she danced last night.