Posted weeks ago......

Yep bookies were correct all along, as I had suspected myself- though Richard did overtake Vana at one point.

very heavy favourite has been installed for final too on betfair

According to many of the contestants Joe never shut up about LS's book in the house

Would not surprise me if producers knew this well and asked Mike to question him showing him up positively.

Of course they were right, they had the inside track. Two candidates spend months working for Lord Sugar, and all the rest go back to their day jobs.

I don't think they work for Sugar any more in the revised format - the gap is still there to carry out due diligence on the finalists' business plans.

I just need to confirm that it's OK, but hopefully I'll post a few teasers for the final later this evening. (And before anyone asks, I don't yet know who won - my preview ends just before Sugar announces the winner.)

They were right about Joseph but they definitely had concerns about Vana throughout. As Slouchingthatch said, they don't work for LS anymore under the new format.

Neither Business has been officially registered either with LS as a director (impra gas still is in its original format with a 100% ownership from Joseph), and afaik Mark's one was officially launched in January 2015, so it's far harder predict from that perspective

Here are a few teasers and soundbites for Sunday's final. Nothing spoilery that reveals anything that happens in the boardroom or who wins.

I do NOT know who wins yet, as my preview copy fades to black just as Sugar is about to announce the winner, so there's no point reading anything into what I say here.

With that caveat out of the way, here goes. Pick the bones out of this lot:

1. The task requires both finalists to launch their businesses. They must produce a digital billboard, promotional video/TV ad and then pitch at London City Hall in front of 200 industry experts before facing Sugar's final decision in the boardroom.

2. Eight former candidates are brought back. Joseph chooses first and selects Gary, Brett, Elle and Mergim. Vana chooses Richard, Charleine, Ruth and Natalie.

3. Sugar specifically asks Vana to prove the market for her app exists and that she won't just burn through the £250k. He asks Joseph to show how he can grow a small-time business into a substantial company.

4. "We are just vessels of Vana."

5. "He actually has a PhD in desire."

6. One of the finalists makes a 'smart' last-minute shift in the focus of their business.

7. So, Mergim, what does EnerPluTure stand for?

8. Yes, as shown in the preview, Richard and Charleine have to pretend to be on a successful date. This would be a tough one for De Niro and Streep to pull off ...

9. "I think it all looks a bit s**t."

10. "It's starting to look like a 1970s porno."

11. One sub-team is economical with the truth when it comes to feeding back their findings from consumer testing.

12. Who doesn't love a bit of Rita Ora?

It looks like Joseph is winning. Truth be told, I am not surprised because Vana's idea is a ridic idea.

As a matter of interest, was it Vana you disagreed with? (And who would you have had in place of her?)

9 and 10 should be about Vana.

Really curious the context of 12.

He picks Gary first




Ruth



(should be smugness, lol; oh, Vana about Richard)



Joseph




"You look like a freak"



Elle has only one thing on her mind



Seems like a very Vana choice

they were very good mates in the process by all accounts

plus Gary is ideal for just getting to do a task with a clear defined specification.

No, I disagreed with Joseph being in the final, although I do understand why Sugar backed him. He represents the 'safe bet' - if Vana's plan is univestable, he has a rooted business with low risk he can invest in (and sell the assets to recoup some money if it fails). My objection to Joseph being in the final is that his eventual idea isn't actually a new business at all - it's just an expansion of his current one, and as such it breaks the spirit of the competition for me. I also think he's a great seller with great drive but he's way too raw as a business all-rounder and will need too much hand-holding and support.

I would have liked to have gone with Richard - if he hadn't shot himself in the foot. His plan actually seemed quite good to me, but we all know the reasons he messed up. Charleine and Gary's plans would never have delivered a return on Sugar's £250k (I've noted elsewhere about Charleine's feeble financial projections).

Vana's plan *may* be spectacular if it works. Of course, that's a big if. Does Sugar want to take a punt? (Again, I've commented elsewhere about why I don't think Vana is as big a risk as most people seem to think.)

I disagree with you on this one. leave the entirely new inventions to dragons den. it can be just as big a business risk and decision to enter into a new market/new geographical region as it is to launch a product from scratch.

I'm not too sure I agree with you on the latter statement either, didn't he snatch a project of 600 houses when only a few weeks in business with Impra Gas? while he's still relatively young, he's been in his industry for a decade now. i think he'd need the opposite to hand-holding he seems like a real go-getter.

The 'rules' are subject to interpretation, of course. I don't think you need to have a new invention but I do object to it just being an extension of an existing business - it opens the door for other people to do the same. For me, the current format should be about fuelling start-ups (or moves into adjacent areas, as Joseph's franchising idea was) rather than boosting existing businesses - but that's very much my interpretation.

I do still disagree about Joseph's skills, though. I don't question his knowledge of the industry or his drive or his ability to sell and sniff out opportunities at all. What I do question at this stage is his ability to run a bigger business. That's where I think he needs hand-holding - the business of running a business, rather than the business itself.

Claude alluded to it in his interview, that it's not just a case of doing the same thing as when you run a small few-man band business. The logic behind Joseph's franchise model was flawed, as was his fee structure - Mike Soutar exposed that ruthlessly - which exposed a lack of general business nous. And recruiting for and managing a large business is tricky too. A lot of small businesses die when they expand because there comes a point at which the boss cannot control every aspect of the operation any more.

That's not to say I don't have some similar concerns about Vana (and you can say the same about most of the candidates, in truth). But for me Joseph is further away from the finished article, impressive as he has been in this process.

I too disagree with you.
Plumbing is a good business to be, you will always need a good reliable plumber. Plus the money is good too

I don't know anyone that needs or uses an online dating service
IMO Vana's idea sux big time, who on earth would spend a whole day playing games with someone online to find out at the end of it that you're not attracted to them. I for one wouldn't use it again.

LS really likes Joseph, he see a lot of himself in Joseph, drive, energy, passion, cheeky chappy, would get his hands dirty & would do anything for a quick buck

Fair enough. I'm happy to accept that I'm in the minority for thinking Vana may well win. But we'll just have to see.

I'm not denying that plumbing is a good business - and certainly much less risky than online dating - but there's a world of difference between being a good small business and being an investable big business. The question for Sugar is: does he believe he will get payback quickly enough on his £250k investment?

Maybe the target market for Vana's app isn't you (or me, either, for that matter)? But that's not to say there isn't a big market. Match, eHarmony and Tinder are big businesses, and there's pretty much a new dating app that launches every week. (Most of them fail too, mind you ...)

I think there's a lot of people rejecting Vana's idea because they don't see the market for the app (if it works - big if! - there is definitely a market) or understand the business model for funding tech start-ups. Burning through the £250k isn't really the big issue - getting a working concept that will attract a second round of funding is what Vana really needs to achieve.

I genuinely believe it's 50:50 as to who will win. Anyone writing off Vana at this stage without knowing more about her app or business model is jumping to premature conclusions, in my view.

Ultimately it will come down to whether Sugar wants to take a big risk for potentially huge rewards (Vana) or whether he wants to play safe (Joseph). I'm not knocking Joseph or his business at all, but from a pure investment basis, it's not very exciting.

What I like about your prediction though (even if I fully believe LS will ultimately invest in Joseph) is that you put forward very compelling reasons for believing so

Too many people just dislike Joseph for some reason, and let that cloud their view, and just blindly state Vana is much better with little relevant concrete evidence

you do put forward a good argument. i'd still invest in Joseph myself if it was my 250k though, and i suspect LS will do the same

Joseph now seems to have emerged as the more popular choice overall going by online polls, which surprises me in a way. I've always liked him but he has divided opinion

This really is the recency effect at play though. Vana could do no wrong for some after the property task. I thought the praise was well OTT myself that week. However it does now come down to the plan first and foremost

For sure. There are solid arguments why either candidate could win - it's not cut and dried by any means. (And last year Bianca looked in good shape after interviews only for her plan to be exposed as useless in the final - mind you, I'd said that Mark would win from about mid-series, so yay me!)

The two big unknowns are what Sugar himself is looking for (how much risk does he want, does he want yet another service business with Joseph when he says year after year he's a products man etc etc) and the nitty-gritty detail behind the business plans.

On the first count, who knows? The simple fact is that what one investor considers attractive another might not like. That depends on what industries they know and are comfortable with, their personal attitude to risk, how well they get on with the prospective business partner etc. Joseph undoubtedly scores points in terms of rapport, but overall I would say Vana has the more rounded overall business skills. I do wonder if the fact that Vana's project is technology-based will attract Sugar.

As for the plans themselves, no one really knows. There are a lot of people making assumptions based on this and that which are utterly groundless and based solely on opinion (and who will no doubt vehemently trash his final decision if their favourite doesn't win).

The reality is that in the last few months Sugar's people will have been conducting due diligence on the financial plans, the market potential, legal considerations etc. We will never get to see that, but it's a very important part - THE most important part, really - of his final decision. The final task itself is largely cosmetic - I'm not saying it's 100% irrelevant, but for anyone to think that Sugar would make a decision based solely on task performance is naive in the extreme. It may be a reality show, but it is real money and Sugar will make a real business decision.

I'm not sure who will win, but my head says Vana despite the high probability of failure and the high risk involved. For me, Joseph's idea represents a good business but a poor investment (in terms of recouping investment, that is - I'm sure it can be profitable). Everyone is focussed on the likelihood of Vana's app failing in a crowded market but that is a red herring, in my opinion. Sugar only needs her to get a working concept developed that can then be pitched for venture capital funding to get it launched. If she can achieve that much, there is a natural exit point for Sugar to step out, recover his £250k (with a profitable premium) and leave the risk to the VCs. There are a lot of other reasons why Vana's plan could fail, but the high burn rate isn't the biggest issue by any means.

To put this into perspective, Lord Sugar gets paid £250,000 by the production company for the series, so the investment actually costs nothing apart from his time.

Or, as he's reputedly worth £1 billion, a quarter million investment to him is like Joe Public with £1,000 in his current account popping into the bookies to put a 25p bet on a 20/1 outsider.

I'm also in the minority who thinks Vana will win. Joe's business is safe and secure, and will return a modest profit for the investment. But Vana's project will be spectacular one way or the other - make millions, or crash and burn. Lord Sugar will, I believe, be prepared to gamble to find out.

Heh, I was beginning to think I was ploughing a lone furrow ...

Sorry, I know there's no point in reading into this, but...

3. I think Vana will try to waffle her way out of it, and LS will still have concerns, thus handing Joseph the win.

4. Richard. Always tries to use "smart" words.

5. No idea. Sounds like something Brett would say though.

6. Vana, for sure.

9. Elle or Natalie...

10. Richard or Ruth

11. Vana's team of Ruth and Natalie, I imagine...

12. Me, for one!

10. "It's starting to look like a 1970s porno."

This in the previous. It was Elle.

^^ Ack "previews" sorry bad spelling

According to Gary, they are filming "You're Hired" tonight. We might have legit spoilers soon