Here are some Strictly stats, which may give some clues as to who may eventually win the show this year.

1) After combining the judges scores from week 1 & 2, the eventual series winner has always been in the top five of the leaderboard.

2) With the exception of Darren Gough (who only scored 49 points) the eventual series winner scored a total of at least 55 points from their first two dances.

3) The person with the highest combined point total at the end of week 2 has only won the series twice in 12 years (Natasha in 2004 and Louis, who was joint top in 2012)

The top five at the end of week 2 this year were Peter (1st), Jay (=2nd), Helen (=2nd), Kellie (=4th), Anita (=4th) & Katie (=4th)

The only celebrities to score at least 55 points in their first two dances this year were Peter (60), Jay (58) & Helen (58)

Given that the early leader has a poor record of eventually going on to win the show, history would tend to suggest Peter will not win, and the 2015 champion will either be Jay or Helen.

Could have told you that Jay is winning without all have that,lol. But it does make it even more obvious. Helen has no chance of winning (unless she goes on about her nerves and wins over a key voting group).

Aliona (lol) is going to be the first pro to win the series two times. Lazarus indeed!

Good research ☺.

I wouldn't rule out Katie. Her combined score of 54 is close enough to 55 to count, and the public's enthusiasm for Anton could well be enough to;

1. Get them to the final (Anton's first)
2. Win.

I really like Jay and Peter but right now would like to see Katie and Anton do it, hopefully they'll build on their brilliant start.

Fingers crossed you're right. I really, really want them to win and Aliona to be the first pro to win twice

I think you may be right. I really think Katie and Anton could win it, popular pro who has never won, a perfectly elegant middle class (not pejorative) beautiful dancer, in her forties, and a Bbc employee to boot? She is going to be a force!

It will be hard to beat her. Pete and Jay split a similar demographic, so if those three are in the final, I think Katie has it.

I saw a post a few days ago in which someone (probably Monkseal) had crunched the numbers and these showed that the judges average scores for the early weeks has declined steadily over the years. It seemed to be reducing by about .5 of a mark every other year or so. I can't remember the actual numbers but the average scores in the first series were in the ballpark of 26 and in more recent years this has fallen to 23 approx.

If the judges are marking less generously across the board that benchmark of 55 may now be lower.

I would also like to see Katie as the winner (partly as I put a bet on her to win at odds of 40/1)

I think both her and Anita were under-marked last week, so are arguably deserving of being in the 55+ point club.

Given Kevin's history (never in the dance off, and finishing twice in the top 3) and Kellie's top five placing after week 2, it seems odd that hardly anyone is predicting Kellie to make the final.

Here are the week 1 & 2 combined point totals for the series winners

Natasha 58
Jill 59
Darren 49
Mark 59
Alesha 67
Tom 61
Chris 56
Kara 62
Harry 55
Louis 57
Abbey 62
Caroline 56

Average for the 12 winners = 58.4 points

Surprisingly, Alesha is not the celebrity with the highest point total after two dances. Colin Jackson, Kelly Brook & Cherie Lunghi all scored 68 points!

Almost getting an illegal high here from the combination of dancing and statistics. Love it.

Not too surprising regarding alesha because she was undermarked multiple times during her series. Well imo anyways. She judges were too harsh on her; especially Craig.
A lot of the dances she produced would have received full marks today; it could also be the fact that series 5 was arguably the MOST competitive season.

This should tip you over the edge then.

I think there is a way to quote from other threads but I don't know how so the thread link http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=2109478

and the post cut and pasted from Monkseal's original post

Average scores after 2 dances :

Series 5 - 26.1
Series 6 - 25.4
Series 4 - 25
Series 8 - 25
Series 11 - 24.5
Series 7 - 24.3
Series 9 - 24.1
Series 12 - 24.1
Series 3 - 23.5
Series 2 - 23
Series 10 - 22.7

ETA Bugger I didn't realise until now that they weren't listed in year order. Its late I am sleepy - scrap the whole idea.

I love these stats, thank you to all for crunching the numbers, much appeciated

early opinions looking like the winner will be between Katie/Jay/Helen

I'd be happy with any of them. Even though I don't like Anton.

would prefer Helen or Jay to win - someone dancing Antons level of latin would be so wrong as a winner

As usual the running order will be crucial this week. With the show starting at 18:20, the first four dancers will be on before 19:00, (when the viewing audience is at its lowest) putting them at a disadvantage.

My guess is that Jeremy will definitely get an early slot, and it wouldn't surprise me if Anthony & Carol also are in the first four.

In week 3 last year the bottom two were Jennifer Gibney (3rd in the running order) and Simon Webbe (4th in the running order).

Quote the post you want, copy and paste into the box of the thread you want to quote the post in.