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The Chase (ITV) (Part 4)
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Chief_Wiggum
02-05-2016
Originally Posted by Sarahsaurus:
“Your odds are extremely generous on the chaser. You would lose a lot of money laying four to one the chaser before the Final Chase started in these sort of situations.

I believe a team of four wins about half the time. Even though there were four reasonable players and no obvious passengers, this very often isn't reflected in their final total. In the end two of them hardly contributed and they ended up with just an average score, no better than two or three players often get.

For the Chaser to be as big as 4/1 to win the team would probably need to get about 22. And few teams achieve that sort of total, even with four players.”


I totally agree with and accept all of your points but I posted those odds before the team had set their target. I believed that the team would score 19 which I thought would be enough to overcome Anne.

Had I have posted the odds after the team had set their score of 17, then I would have probably had evens on Anne and the team at 3/1.
Groundhogal
02-05-2016
Originally Posted by Virgin Queen:
“Anne is looking very stern today.”

I love it when she scares the bejesus out of them. I'd like to see more of them going home in tears.
Sarahsaurus
02-05-2016
Originally Posted by Chief_Wiggum:
“I totally agree with and accept all of your points but I posted those odds before the team had set their target. I believed that the team would score 19 which I thought would be enough to overcome Anne.

Had I have posted the odds after the team had set their score of 17, then I would have probably had evens on Anne and the team at 3/1.”

Evens on Anne and 3/1 for the team? In a two horse race, one is even money and the other is three to one against?

I could bet both of them with you and be guaranteed a profit whichever won.

Eg £500 on Anne at Evens, £250 on the team at 3/1, returns a profit of £250 whoever wins.
Chief_Wiggum
02-05-2016
Originally Posted by Sarahsaurus:
“Evens on Anne and 3/1 for the team? In a two horse race, one is even money and the other is three to one against?

I could bet both of them with you and be guaranteed a profit whichever won.

Eg £500 on Anne at Evens, £250 on the team at 3/1, returns a profit of £250 whoever wins.”

Clearly I'm not destined for a job at William Hill

I'll try and do the odds on another episode this week and hopefully get it right next time!
Sarahsaurus
02-05-2016
Originally Posted by Chief_Wiggum:
“Clearly I'm not destined for a job at William Hill

I'll try and do the odds on another episode this week and hopefully get it right next time! ”

You're not the first to make this sort of mistake, and you won't be the last, so don't worry, as long as you're not setting up in business as a bookie, that is.

in the film Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, the bookies set the odds for the triwizard tournament before it started, and there's a shot of the odds they're offering. I can't remember exactly what they were, but they were something like this-

Cedric Diggory 2/1
Victor Krum 6/1
Fleur Delacourt 10/1
Harry Potter 30/1.

There were only four runners in the tournament, so you could have bet all four of them and been guaranteed a profit whoever won. The specific odds aren't actually mentioned in the original book, so it's either the screenwriters, or the props department that made the odds board (or both) that don't know much about bookmaking odds.

The real odds should have been something like this:

Cedric Diggory 5/4
Victor Krum 2/1
Fleur Delacourt 4/1
Harry Potter 10/1.
Groundhogal
02-05-2016
Originally Posted by GoCompareThis:
“"Who was pregnant first in the Bible?"
"Mary"

Well she clearly failed RE! ”

The most popular girls, always do. Especially on the practical.
Chief_Wiggum
02-05-2016
Originally Posted by Sarahsaurus:
“You're not the first to make this sort of mistake, and you won't be the last, so don't worry, as long as you're not setting up in business as a bookie, that is.

in the film Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, the bookies set the odds for the triwizard tournament before it started, and there's a shot of the odds they're offering. I can't remember exactly what they were, but they were something like this-

Cedric Diggory 2/1
Victor Krum 6/1
Fleur Delacourt 10/1
Harry Potter 30/1.

There were only four runners in the tournament, so you could have bet all four of them and been guaranteed a profit whoever won. The specific odds aren't actually mentioned in the original book, so it's either the screenwriters, or the props department that made the odds board (or both) that don't know much about bookmaking odds.

The real odds should have been something like this:

Cedric Diggory 5/4
Victor Krum 2/1
Fleur Delacourt 4/1
Harry Potter 10/1.”

So for future reference, does that mean that in a Final Chase, either the Chaser or the team has to be an odds-on favourite for a bookie to make any money?
Sarahsaurus
03-05-2016
Originally Posted by Chief_Wiggum:
“So for future reference, does that mean that in a Final Chase, either the Chaser or the team has to be an odds-on favourite for a bookie to make any money?”

Well, think about it.

In any competition/sporting event/ whatever, in which there are only two possible outcomes, unless they are exactly evenly matched, one of the outcomes must be more likely to happen than the other, ie a greater than 50% chance.

If it's a tennis match and one player has a 45% chance of winning, then his opponent has a 55% chance. There are only two possible outcomes, either one or the other has to win. They cannot both be odds against, it's impossible.

So in any event involving two outcomes, unless, as I said, in the unlikely circumstance where the outcomes are evenly matched, one of the two must be odds-on (ie a greater than 50% chance) to win. If the bookies regard the match as an even game, and they cannot split them, then both of them will be odds on, 5/6, or 10/11 if they're feeling generous.

Any bookie laying Evens or bigger about both outcomes in a two horse race is not going to survive for very long.
Justonecornetto
03-05-2016
Jenny is doing another Q&A on twitter for the next hour

http://twitter.com/jenlion
Skoorl
03-05-2016
I see you've managed to get another question answered by The Vixen. Good job.
Justonecornetto
03-05-2016
Originally Posted by Skoorl:
“I see you've managed to get another question answered by The Vixen. Good job.”

Yes I was firing a few questions in, think I got 4 replies
Skoorl
03-05-2016
I wondered what she meant by stay tuned on the book.
StanTheOstrich
03-05-2016
This team looks awful. Not sure about their general knowledge though.
Skoorl
03-05-2016
YESSS its Jenny! High five Cornetto
Justonecornetto
03-05-2016
Hellooooooooooooo Jenny
doctorwhofancal
03-05-2016
Jenny tweeted me earlier, she did a Q+A.

Hoping for a good final chase score and a good win for Jenny, she needs to be respected more
richie4eva
03-05-2016
Jenny
StanTheOstrich
03-05-2016
Apparently not drinking prevents you from listening to music that mentions alcohol!
Scrumper
03-05-2016
Cannon fodder this lot.
richie4eva
03-05-2016
Originally Posted by doctorwhofancal:
“Jenny tweeted me earlier, she did a Q+A.

Hoping for a good final chase score and a good win for Jenny, she needs to be respected more”

13-8 for Jenny so far, hopefully 14-8 after today
Justonecornetto
03-05-2016
Is the beehive back in fashion?
Welsh-lad
03-05-2016
I love the Chase
Welsh-lad
03-05-2016
Body warmer
StanTheOstrich
03-05-2016
Originally Posted by Justonecornetto:
“Is the beehive back in fashion?”

Please don't pose rhetorical questions.
Welsh-lad
03-05-2016
String
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