The Chase (ITV) (Part 4)

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able1

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by Sarahsaurus:
“That doesn't sound to me like a very good tactic, if it was deliberate. If she knows it's fifties or sixties she should guess one of them. OK, if she gets it wrong, then the team pick the other one and get the pushback. Her chance of winning the point is fifty percent, and so is the team's.

But if she passes it, they might know the answer anyway without having to guess, in which case you've just handed them a pushback without a fight. Even if there's only a twenty percent chance they know the answer, and they guess the other eighty percent, their overall chance of getting the question right is sixty percent. Thus passing makes the team favourite for the point because there will be some chance, however small, that one of them knows the answer. By guessing first you effectively nullify this advantage. Even if they don't know the answer, and have to guess themselves, they have the same fifty percent chance of guessing right that the Chaser had, assuming they also know that it's either the fifties or the sixties. So passing the question really offers no advantage, even if they don't know it.

Thus in a situation like this you are much better off taking a guess at it yourself rather than pass it.”

Well that is her MO as used by her before and as stated by Bradley, and in this case it worked.

She did tarry suspiciously a little too long on some of ` the others. and it cost her.

Francis_Chu

01-12-2016

Is it just me but whenever Jenny loses there is a lot of vitriol on her but whenever someone else loses there is no hate on them?
Give her a break, everyone.

MikeCB

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by ArtistBaptista:
“She had a shocker there. Weak team.”

yep godd sum up

lots of easy Q's missed on both sides ...

Have been doing some analysis on results for the past couple of months for Chasers:

Code:

	Final Chase			Head-to-Heads		
Chaser	Count	Wins	Success %	Count	Catches	Success %
-----------------------------------------------------------------
AH	 13	 9	 69.2		 52	 21	40.4
JR	 13	 10	 76.9		 52	 26	50.0
ML	 14	 12	 85.7		 56	 19	33.9
PS	 13	 10	 76.9		 52	 20	38.5
SW	 13	 9	 69.2		 52	 25	48.1

interesting to note that Mark has lowest Catch % in Head-to-heads, but is best in Final Chase
Jenny best at knocking out contestants

johnny_t

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by MikeCB:
“
Have been doing some analysis on results for the past couple of months for Chasers:

Code:

Final Chase Head-to-Heads Chaser Count Wins Success % Count Catches Success % ----------------------------------------------------------------- AH 13 9 69.2 52 21 40.4 JR 13 10 76.9 52 26 50.0 ML 14 12 85.7 56 19 33.9 PS 13 10 76.9 52 20 38.5 SW 13 9 69.2 52 25 48.1

interesting to note that Mark has lowest Catch % in Head-to-heads, but is best in Final Chase
Jenny best at knocking out contestants”

Some interesting stats there, but they don't correlate to how it 'feels'. For example, Anne 'feels' like a much better chaser than Shaun, to me.

Do you have stats on:

Average cashbuilder round scores per chaser (obviously that isn't in the chaser's control, but would give an indication of the calibre of contestants they are facing)

Average final chase target per chaser (as above)

In a world of random selection, I guess those answers should be about the same across the chasers, so it would be interesting to see if there are any skews...

Again, it is all about 'feels', but it seems to me that you need about 20 to be in with a good chance against Anne, Mark or Paul, but 16 puts you in with a good chance against Jenny or Shaun.

CanonMan75

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by Francis_Chu:
“Is it just me but whenever Jenny loses there is a lot of vitriol on her but whenever someone else loses there is no hate on them?
Give her a break, everyone.”

Agree entirely.

Sarahsaurus

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by johnny_t:
“
Average cashbuilder round scores per chaser (obviously that isn't in the chaser's control, but would give an indication of the calibre of contestants they are facing)”

This is one of the key Chase statistics, because it indicates how strong (or not so strong) the teams are that the individual Chasers are pitched against.

The average score in the Cashbuilder per player in series 10, according to One Question Shootout, is £5,000. It has been around the five thousand mark for the last four or five years. So that makes an average score of twenty thousand for the team of four.

Unfortunately the otherwise excellent One Question Shootout site does not give average Cashbuilders for each Chaser. But recently it seems Jenny usually faces teams that score lower than twenty thousand. and sometimes much lower. Twice I think (including yesterday) she's faced teams that scored only nine thousand between them in their Cashbuilders. in fact I can't remember the last time I saw a Jenny team that scored more than twenty thousand. She seems to get players that score zero on their Cashbuilder more often than the others.

Make of all that what you will.

johnny_t

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by Sarahsaurus:
“This is one of the key Chase statistics, because it indicates how strong (or not so strong) the teams are that the individual Chasers are pitched against.

The average score in the Cashbuilder per player in series 10, according to One Question Shootout, is £5,000. It has been around the five thousand mark for the last four or five years. So that makes an average score of twenty thousand for the team of four.

Unfortunately the otherwise excellent One Question Shootout site does not give average Cashbuilders for each Chaser. But recently it seems Jenny usually faces teams that score lower than twenty thousand. and sometimes much lower. Twice I think (including yesterday) she's faced teams that scored only nine thousand between them in their Cashbuilders. in fact I can't remember the last time I saw a Jenny team that scored more than twenty thousand. She seems to get players that score zero on their Cashbuilder more often than the others.

Make of all that what you will.”

That's pretty much what I was getting at. Just to put this into context for the people that will inevitably say 'Why don't you have a go then, I bet you can't beat her':

I once beat Mark 10-8 in a head-to-head 'Beat the Beast' challenge (and was the first person to do so in 9 months of him doing it fairly regularly, so he wasn't going easy on me).

I once went on The Chase and won £8,000 against Paul (8 in the Cashbuilder, Team score of 20 in the FC)

I would quite like to pit myself against Anne, for the challenge. Whilst I'd happily go for a drink down the pub with Shaun or Jenny, I'm not that interested in them as a quiz challenge, except for 'getting the whole set'...

Benjamin Sisko

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by Francis_Chu:
“Is it just me but whenever Jenny loses there is a lot of vitriol on her but whenever someone else loses there is no hate on them?
Give her a break, everyone.”

People have been having the same attitude and vitriol towards Shaun for much longer, so it's not just Jenny.

iaindb

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by MikeCB:
“yep godd sum up

lots of easy Q's missed on both sides ...

Have been doing some analysis on results for the past couple of months for Chasers:

Code:

Final Chase Head-to-Heads Chaser Count Wins Success % Count Catches Success % ----------------------------------------------------------------- AH 13 9 69.2 52 21 40.4 JR 13 10 76.9 52 26 50.0 ML 14 12 85.7 56 19 33.9 PS 13 10 76.9 52 20 38.5 SW 13 9 69.2 52 25 48.1

interesting to note that Mark has lowest Catch % in Head-to-heads, but is best in Final Chase
Jenny best at knocking out contestants”

I don't understand this. These stats say 16 team wins in 66 programmes which is 13 weeks and 1 day. So that means we should have seen 2 team wins in, what, 2 weeks in that period. So how come I see exactly one team win EVERY SINGLE WIN. I haven't seen 2 teams wins in 1 week since about 1957. Am I being dumb here? Please tell me when in the last 3 months we've seen 2 team wins in the one week. I need dates.

......Thank you.

clever3000

01-12-2016

How Quizzing got cool: TV's Brains of Britain was on BBC4 last night and featured Shaun, Paul and Mark from the Chase as well as Kevin, Judith and Lisa from Eggheads. A really interesting documentary about TV Quizzes with some interesting flashbacks to the Chasers in their early appearances. If your a fan of TV Quiz shows it is really worth a look.

MikeCB

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by iaindb:
“I don't understand this.
<snip>
......Thank you.”

I knew I shouldn't have done this

Had a re-check and SW was showing AH's numbers

Also fixed some others

corrected figures (well, for now anyway!)

Code:

		Final Chase				|		Contestants			| 	Head-to-Heads		
Chaser	Count	Avg Target	Wins	Success %	| Ind 4 Avg	In Final Avg	Total Avg	| Count	Catches	Success %
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AH	13	16.6		9	69.2		| 5.1		5.2		12.5		| 52	21	40.4
JR	13	12.8		10	76.9		| 3.9		3.6		7.2		| 52	26	50.0
ML	14	15.9		12	85.7		| 5.8		6.0		15.9		| 56	19	33.9
PS	13	16.6		10	76.9		| 4.8		5.1		12.5		| 52	20	38.5
SW	13	15.5		11	84.6		| 4.8		5.5		11.5		| 52	25	48.1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total	66	16.0		52	24.3

so... just to explain this
for Contestants:
'Ind 4 Avg' is the average Cashbuilder score for All 4 contestants
'In Final Avg' is the average Cashbuilder score for contestants in Final
'Total Avg' is the average total 'Team' score for contestants in Final - effectively the quality of the team the Chaser faces in Final

notables:
Most Chasers knockout the contestants with the lower scores (ie 'In Final Avg' is > All 4 Avg'), with the exception of Jenny
Jenny has by far the lowest Team 'Total Avg'

Now for some analysis of contesants:

Code:

			Cashbuilders	|	Head-to-Heads
Age		Score	Count	Average	| Through	Average %
------------------------------------------------------------------
Under 30	276	67	4.1	| 32		47.8
30 → 39		310	58	5.3	| 32		55.2
40 → 49		248	46	5.4	| 28		60.9
50 → 59		251	47	5.3	| 33		70.2
60 → 69		146	30	4.9	| 19		63.3
70 Plus		80	20	4.0	| 12		60.0
		1311	268	4.89	| 156		58.2

no real surprises here ...

Lenitive

01-12-2016

Wow, loving your data, MikeCB!

david_leeward

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by CanonMan75:
“Agree entirely.”

Me too.

johnny_t

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by johnny_t:
“Some interesting stats there, but they don't correlate to how it 'feels'. For example, Anne 'feels' like a much better chaser than Shaun, to me.”

Originally Posted by MikeCB:
“Had a re-check and SW was showing AH's numbers ”

You can't beat my feels....

Some truly impressive stat-work and analysis there, though. I salute you !!

Verence

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by clever3000:
“How Quizzing got cool: TV's Brains of Britain was on BBC4 last night and featured Shaun, Paul and Mark from the Chase as well as Kevin, Judith and Lisa from Eggheads. A really interesting documentary about TV Quizzes with some interesting flashbacks to the Chasers in their early appearances. If your a fan of TV Quiz shows it is really worth a look.”

It was weird seeing Shaun with some hair

johnny_t

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by MikeCB:
“
notables:
Most Chasers knockout the contestants with the lower scores (ie 'In Final Avg' is > All 4 Avg'), with the exception of Jenny
Jenny has by far the lowest Team 'Total Avg'

”

Just one more thing...

The data does seem to bear out the anecdotal view that Jenny gets given worse contestants than the others. It is easy to envisage the production team matching the contestant's abilities to the chaser's abilities, in order to get a roughly equal hit rate for FC wins.

However, it also implies that Jenny usually knocks out her stronger cashbuilders but either doesn't knock out (or, even, lets through) her weaker cashbuilders, which is interesting.

Now, do you have a similar set of stats for Celebrity Chases ? I bet that would really show some differences

richie4eva

01-12-2016

The Sinnerman today

Loved today's intro for Anne

Virgin Queen

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by Francis_Chu:
“Is it just me but whenever Jenny loses there is a lot of vitriol on her but whenever someone else loses there is no hate on them?
Give her a break, everyone.”

'Vitriol' is a bit strong. I think we're allowed to say what we feel about the Chasers - within bounds.

ArtistBaptista

01-12-2016

The Cuba question cost her.

albion-mad-nick

01-12-2016

Bad miss on the Cuba question, was pretty big news.

Justonecornetto

01-12-2016

Thought it was beehive hairstyle that Dusty was famous for

StanTheOstrich

01-12-2016

Along those lines...
My dad was an award winning scarecrow

mal2pool

01-12-2016

Is this still a new series? surely they must be repeats by now, im sure ive heard the norman wisdom albania questions before.
Brad says they are going to have families taking part so could be fun.

Virgin Queen

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by Justonecornetto:
“Thought it was beehive hairstyle that Dusty was famous for ”

That's exactly what I thought.
I wondered if Brad misheard Richard's answer.

StanTheOstrich

01-12-2016

Originally Posted by Justonecornetto:
“Thought it was beehive hairstyle that Dusty was famous for ”

I think Dusty just had a lid.

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