I think ITV should keep The Voice in Q1 with pretty much an almost identical structure to what the BBC currently has. The problem with moving it to Q4 is that I don't think it is quite strong enough to be able to cope with the (part) SCD clashes and also the gap between the BBC's final series in Q1 2016 and then a potential series in Q4 2017 would be way too long. I doubt it could air in Q4 next year as X Factor is contracted to air a series next year and it's quite unlikely ITV would move XF from Q4, given BGT's scheduling is pretty much set in stone, unlikely to air XF in summer etc.
Looking at the numbers, The Voice averaged 7.4m in the overnights this year over about 20 hours. On ITV it would average lower as it would face tougher BBC competition (even if it's Pointless Celebs) than the ITV competition it has faced (Stars In Their Eyes/Take Me Out) and also there is a general dip moving from BBC1 to ITV anyway. If we take into account an assumed 20% drop, it should be able to average about 6m which although not juggernaut SCD/GBBO/BGT/IAC levels, would be a big boost to ITV in Q1, given that in recent years they've struggled to get over 4m in that slot prior to SNT returning. I'd probably keep it around the 20-25 hour mark for the whole series with 8 audition shows, 2 battle shows, 2 knockouts, 3 live shows - keeping the live week count the same as it was on BBC1. And leaving it on just Saturdays (7pm for the auditions, 8pm for the other episodes in a post-SNT slot which will help reduce the dip post-auditions).
As for what happens to The X Factor, there's three options really following next year's series: 1. cancel it completely, 2. continue the show with the same number of hours and presence in the schedule, 3. somewhere in the middle of those two.
I think the sensible thing would be option 3 and for ITV to renew it on a rolling year-on-year (or 2 year at a push) basis but with far fewer hours than the 45 or so it currently airs for, and not being placed so central in the schedules. This series of TXF will end up with an overnight average of about 7m by the end of the run. It's been trending down about 10% per year recently, so next year's probably might be in the low 6's range. If it came back in 2017 and dropped another 10%, it'd be around 5.5m. Don't get me wrong, that'd be low for TXF but I don't think it's quite low enough for it to be cancelled completely because the demos are still good and with a 25% 16-34 skew, they're still looking at 1.4m 16-34s, which generates £1.4m in ad revenue per hour. Obviously ITV would need to negotiate a far lower cost per hour with Syco than they are paying now to take on board the fallen ratings and perhaps there would have to be on-screen changes to reflect that (no Cowell, fewer live shows, no glamorous judges houses etc).
Replacing 45 hours of even dire-by-XF-standards c5.5m figures would be a very difficult situation, given that there's a general struggle at the channel launching new shows to 4m. We've seen what a mess they made of replacing DOI. Of course it'd be subject to negotiations with Syco/Thames, but if possible, I think perhaps they ought to cut TXF from 45 to about 25 hours for 2017 (6x1hr auditions, 2x1hr bootcamp, 4x1hr 6CC, 6x2hr lives per weekend). Air it in Q4 in the 7pm Sat/Sun slot, accepting the fact that SCD is just way ahead of it right now and that SCD will beat it by 4m viewers head to head but at least providing an alternative audience to ITV to start off their night at a solid level. This would gift the superior 8pm Sat/Sun slot to test out c25 hours of new ambitious shows, with perhaps one or two of those shows becoming hits to bring back for extended runs in 2018 (and thus cutting back the XF hours in 2018 a little bit further too or cancelling altogether if genuinely no longer required).
With the above, it would mean about 45 hours of major singing shows in the year split between TVUK and TXF, which is no more than what ITV currently airs now for TXF alone, to try and prevent obvious singing show overload. But it would help solve the Q1 problem, keep TXF in the schedules in some kind of diminished non event-tv (but useful from a ratings POV) utility-player type of way and give new shows an opportunity to have a prime Autumn slot away from SCD. I think a gradual 2-3 year phase out of TXF would be better than a straight cancellation from a strategic point of view.
