I think Jay and Anita are the most likely candidates to stand a chance of winning IF they made the final at the moment. I don't see Helen winning but I could easily see her in the final.

I think Kellie, Peter, Katie and maybe Georgia could all be in the final too but I feel to actually win it that Jay and Anita are the strongest candidates at this stage. I think Anita has more of a fight on her hands to make the final, but if she can get there then I'd say she stands a strong chance of winning. Whereas I'd be surprised if Jay isn't as good as guaranteed a place in the final already

But there's still weeks to go so the others I listed could all come up on the outside.

As much as she was my favourite last year from the start, I didn't think for a moment that Caroline would end up winning when we were at this stage of the series last year, so I think it depends who gets the "wow" moments and who gets the "tits up" moments over the next few weeks

I like how this series is so wide open. Makes it more exciting and unpredictable

FWIW - it was *alleged* that Denise was second to Kimberley, I read that Natalie was "a distant third" but can't remember where and we've never heard anything about who was second of Frankie and Simon (although given how persistently unpopular Simon was I *think* it was Frankie.)

Now I've come to my sense, I seem to recall that the bookies have paid out on both of the two non-winners as "runners up" since the Beeb doesn't announce who was actually second.

And the first year this happened, wasn;t the suggestion that it was because the celeb who was actually third was the one who was willing to go on tour - so they didn't want them NOT to have been "runner up"?

I'd be happy with Jay and Anita in the final with Anita winning. Though if Jay won I wouldn't be upset either. Helen's ballroom is good but she is pants at latin.

If we look at www.oddschecker.com there's nothing it it in the margin of odds. It depends also who trends best on FB and twitter as well. There all components of whom is the most likely to clinch SCD.

Exactly. It's clear that Carol, Jeremy, Ainsley, Kirsty and Jamelia are unlikely candidates but it really could be anyone else of the rest of them

I think the final three will be Anita, Helen and Jay.

The changes to the 2012 final were fudged at the last minute - it had originally been intended for there to be a double elimination in the semis with no dance-off and a three-couple final. This was then changed to a dance-off in the semis with one elimination. It's never been stated definitively but the suspicion was that this was done to ensure that they could both get rid of Lisa and ensure Denise was in the final.

I think there's easily 7 people in with a chance of being in the final 3, but if I had to pick (at this stage) they're the 3 I could imagine being top 3 too.

But my opinion will probably change multiple times from that pool of 7 lol

Let me guess, your favourite word is........................... 'Ringer'

I am only telling the truth.

Wonder if carol and Jeremy have nonsensical twitter campaigns to keep em in? These twitter campaigns make me raging to be honest.

Of the twelve contestants remaining, I presume we're ruling out Carol and Jeremy unless something really goes wrong, plus the slightly more able Ainsley. For all the hype about this being "Anton's year" last night was the second time he's been brought back to earth, and once the remaining dross has gone and they draw another latin they won't be long for this show. Unless Jamelia's popularity and Tristan's choreography take a turn for the better likewise. Kirsty upped her game in the ballroom this week but I don't see her managing to do the same in the latin, so much like Katie she'll probably be in danger next time she draws one of those.

That leaves us with Helen, Jay, Peter, Kellie, Anita and Georgia; I would say the first two are nailed on for the final (although I wouldn't rule out the judges attempting to pull an Austin on Jay), but I actually think it's possible Peter won't make it there and I still think Kevin is heading for a major backlash.

They have done well to have not even been in the dance off yet but then the ones who have gone haven't exactly been amazing either. There's always going to be at least one that lasts way longer than they probably should based on dance ability alone. My guess is Jeremy will be the last duffer standing this year. Ainsley, Kirsty and Jamelia have already been in the dance off after all.

That said, Ainsley, Kirsty and Jamelia are probably better than Carol and Jeremy but not by much

I do hope so, they are my top two favourites.

I remember all this 'ringer' controversy from last year (and possibly every other year?). Wouldn't it be impossible to select a bunch of celebs without at least a couple of them having danced before in some form or another? And I'm not speaking for anyone except myself here, but if it bothered me, even marginally, I wouldn't watch Strictly. You can keep bringing it up, and you are perfectly entitled to do so, but i doubt if it will change anything. All you can do is not vote for these 'ringers'. I can't see that you have any other option apart from the obvious one.

That's why I think Anita, Helen and Jay are looking strongest for top 3 so far. I think Katie & Anton have been hyped a lot so have a lot of backing to stay for a good while. But like you said, they've had a couple of mishaps now so I think that's probably stopped their chances of actually being real contenders to win. And I think too that it's probably going to happen again at some point too. Kellie is doing really well and whilst I'd love her to go all the way I think overboard Kevin is going to inevitably spoil their chances. Georgia could also do well still but she seems to get a bit forgotten among the other "good ones" at the moment. And with Peter, I think he's good, but I think the judges try to make out he's better than he is. I think that will go against him eventually. I wouldn't completely rule him out but at this point he gives me vibes of going in the semi's or even quarter finals. This years "Pixie" or "Jake" elimination if you like?

I don't vote at all so it doesn't bother me just as long as everyone knows who the ringers are It's only fair to keep reminding people as they did with Natalie

I've no problem with that. It would seem by this Forum, however, that most people just pick someone for their personalities, or because they like them in their favour soap, or whatever. Their dancing skills (ringers or not) appear to have very little to do with their voting choice, so you're probably not getting through to anyone.

You couldn't have been a fan of Natalie!?!

I was, I wanted her to win. She didn't win because she was marked as a ringer.

I loved her as a dancer, but I didn't vote for her because her and Artem just didn't have an engaging partnership.

At the end of the day that's the biggest part of what most people are voting for.

She would probably have won last year. Flackers was also pegged as a ringer, but then so was just about everyone.

Still a lomng way to go, only needs a wobble one week and someone can be out. Look what happened with Pixie, she could have won if everything had worked out better for her.

That was one of the contributor factors but not the only reason. I like ringers but though I started supporting them but somehow lost the emotional connection.

In my opinion, the best two couples in performing terms are Jay and Aliona and Anita and Gleb by far.