It seems to be taken as almost Holy Writ that Jay is a dead cert to win by a majority of active posters but is there any solid basis for this theory? Sure, it's time for a male winner and he's a very good, probably the best, dancer (like that counts on this show!) but is there actually any evidence he's consistently winning the public vote?
I'm no statistician, but my feeling is that being the DS poll favourite, and indeed, bookies favourite, is no guarantee of a win in past years? I wouldn't pin a scruffy looking boy band member with a pleasant but unassuming personality as having particularly broad appeal to SCD viewing demographic, even accepting the latter appears to have become younger and more 'X Factorish' in recent years. He's done one outstanding dance (jive) that generated enormous social media traction and is probably the dance of the series - but that wasn't enough for Jake (salsa), Sophie (Charleston) etc, etc. Equally, the best dancer has rarely won (Jill and probably Kara). We actually 'know' less about how the public are voting given the lack of shocks than in previous years - Jamelia is consistently not getting votes and Kellie must have polled dismally two weeks ago is pretty much all we can say. The only 'leak' I am aware of suggested, rightly or wrongly, that he polled top in Jive week but otherwise Katie topped the first 5 weeks. So why do the Sages of DS think (as opposed to simply want) a Jay walk-over is inevitable?

It's not certain - online polls aren't necessarily indicative of wider public opinion. However, when Jay seems to top EVERY internet poll and seemingly cheered the loudest on the live shows it does suggest that he is very popular. Victory is not a certainty for Jay, but highly likely especially if he starts smashing his dances again.

Congratulations missfrankiecat, you opened a real can of worms here!

Let's see what comes up.

(I like your blog, btw )

My Advice

1. Just listen to the cheers when he walks down the steps with Aliona tonight and compare them with the other celebrities.

2. Watch the crowd after his performance tonight compared to everyone else

Then you will understand

I don't think a Jay walkover is inevitable. I think he has a strong core of fans which is by no means a guarantee to win.

I Think he's done the best Waltz, Foxtrot (even with the mistake) Jive, and Paso Doble so far so he's cemented as a deserving front runner.

I don't agree with some that he's done one outstanding and the rest mediocre dances. I think he's a victim of his own success in that his Jive is an iconic Strictly dance, but he's far better thanJake or Sophie in terms of other dances.

I think he's had a bad run of dances and songs and scores and comments,which have damaged his chances With his last 4 performances all being internal/moody themed.

I think this Salsa will be the turning point as to whether more people decide he's a one trick pony who can't perform or whether he'll turn it around on this dance and get back in favour with the masses.

I'm a Jay fan and I don't assume he'll win. I just want him to get to Final and do all the dances he can.

Well for me Georgia and Helen and even Anita are in with a good chance
From what I can see Jay did a terrific jive , the rest was ok and at best good . Nothing he has done since has excited me really

I think the final 4 will be georgia helen anita and jay, but i think georgia or helen should win theyre the ones who have improved the most. .. Love jay hes very talented but his face does not keep up with his fantastic moves its blank and at first thought it was just nerves but a few weeks in its just making him appear boring now and flat.

I wouldn't go on DS polls - they are often wrong. But in social media (all aspects) hes not just ahead, but ahead by huge margins. His tweets alone get retweeted thousands of times. I wouldn't say this alone means he will win it, but it is a good indication of how popular he is.

Outside of social media, he gets the loudest cheers every single week by far on the show (and thats different audiences every week)

Hes bookies favourite.

And my 'real life' experiences (although small) have so many not just liking him the best, but really invested in him as a person. I've read similar stories on here saying the same thing with people they know in real life. This is what makes me think he has it in the bag....not just the amount of support, but the strength of his support (its not just 'that was a good dance, I think I'll start voting for him now') ...hes got people from the early stages really backing him because they really like him as a person as well as his dancing. IMO that kind of dedicated suport doesn't change from week to week.

Of course nothing is absolutely sure, and that is just my opinion. But I'm as sure hes going to win it this year as I was with Louis Smith and Harry Judd. Last years show and the year before was a bit less certain.

Yes he is. Just as night follows day.

How boring

Nobody's a shoo in for the win .. lots of things could happen.
I think it's obvious he's popular but so are a lot of the others.
He had quite a low position on the leaderboard last week so, to some extent, especially with so few left, his vote has been tested.

I definitely don't agree that he's only had one outstanding dance. He's had a lot of more sombre dances since his Paso .. whilst others have had Charlestons and party Latins. Anyway, he's always, no matter what, so watchable. Beautiful dancer.

Nah, Helen did the best foxtrot, with the added bonus that it also looked like a foxtrot.

I think people are really neglecting the online angle to voting if they think anyone else is in with a chance of winning. Jay has a highly mobile and organised online fanbase willing to vote multiple times, and with the voting now being free there's absolutely no impediment. Throw in an international Wanted fanbase with IP blockers and an organised voting campaign and it's game over. Katie may be more popular (and that's highly arguable) with the show's core demo but they're the type to vote once or twice and have done.

There's a way to go yet. I've never seen it as inevitable, although he is my favourite.

No, it's not certain. I think a lot of the people who say it is are fans of other celebs and like feeling their celebs are underdogs despite high scores and previous training, so there has to be someone who has it 'in the bag' to sustain that feeling.

Polls on here are often misleading and going on the votes we know, like Jungle and XF, the real votes change hugely from week to week. People on here tend to talk about 'fanbases' and as if the voting is very consistent, which I'm not sure it is. There is a lot of anecdotal evidence that a solid body of the vote only vote in the final, often without having necessarily watched the whole series.

I think that Jay and Peter are both quite marmite contestants, Jay because of his much-hyped 'training' and the difficulties of following such a great dance in week 3, and Peter because all the baggage he brings from previous things he's done, and that it's more likely one of the women - I would have said Anita 2 weeks ago but now I'd say Georgia - will slip in between them and take it. But a lot depends on how they all dance, of course.

What I would say is that I think that the people who like Jay LOVE him. I don't even like saying that because I know it will stir up the usual suspect haters, but I think that the support he has so far, however big it is, is noticeably intense and heartfelt and will carry on with him to whatever he does next. While I doubt he can win - because generally the person who does the wow dance in week three doesn't win - I think Strictly has been a great way for him to start building his career as an individual separate from the band and really hope it will be a great start for him. I love the way Strictly gives people a chance to find a new audience and I don't think who wins mattes as much. In the same way, I also think Strictly will be wonderful for Georgia giving her the chance to shine and opening new doors for her and Anita, showing her fearlessness and spirit and will get her all kinds of presenting jobs, whether they win or not.

(eta: Jeremy had big cheers and standing ovations and lots of social media support...)

I don't see him as a shoo in at all though I think his chances are excellent because he does seem to have grabbed the public's affection and it certainly helps that he is a fantastic dancer too.

As for only having one exceptional dance well I have to disagree.......most of his dances are fabulous even with the little errors (maybe we can discount his QS in that as it went very wrong) Imo I wish he had not yet had his Jive because it seems to have hampered him a little in so much as he probably feels the pressure of trying to live up to it and his confidence has been battered by the nonsense the judges keep spouting about his facial expression (very ironic seeing as the judges praised Peter for his during his Charleston which really only consisted of looking like a goldfish drowning).

So really anything can happen at this stage and as the scoring seems to be designed to manipulate the leaderboard then it really is possible that Jay could end up in the DO and I do not think it at all all impossible that the judges may send him home.

And the converse is true - a lot of people saying Jay doesn't have it in the bag are Jay fans trying to convince themselves that he's still got to work for it and that he's somehow an underdog.

You might find it boring but you have to ask yourself why is Jay so popular. As a previous poster has said it is not just on forums that he is popular it is throughout social media and in all age groups. I think he has an endearing quality and is not shouty or desperate like some of them who I wont mention.

If he wins, it will be the voters choice but lets wait and see as there are a few weeks to go.

Ok, fair point - I really wasn't trying to say Jay was an underdog. I was saying I don't think anyone has it in the bag yet.

Never been so sure of anything in my life.

I think the only couple that could have realistically challenged him are Katie and Anton (also very popular and Anton lifting the GB would be a big Strictly moment etc). Alas, I don't think they're quite good enough - even with dances left that should suit them.

I'm a Georgia supporter - I know its unlikely tonight will be her best dance, but I'm still confident she'll get through as I think she has garnered enough support to avoid the dance off. I'm not going to pretend shes an underdog for whatever reason you think I should, I only state what I think based on what I've seen. I do think she has a good chance of being a runner-up as she seems to be getting more popular as time goes on.

I believe Jay will win for a few reasons - and I've listed the reasons why I believe that. I'm not making it up because I support someone else. If you want to assign other motives as to why I'm saying it, thats up to you. I won't be able to change your mind.

Hi Sid I wish I could be as sure as you as I would Love for him to win although I would not mind any of the others winning apart from Peter. But I would be devastated should Jay not make the final.

If we are to believe the judges scores last week then other than Jamelia Jay appears to be at the bottom of the pile (which is remarkable and ridiculous imo) so I do not see it as impossible at this stage for him to be in the DO.....................and considering how the judges see him I really do not see how they could possibly keep him in against any other than Jamelia. It would seem rather odd for them to be scoring and praising the others much higher and then vote to keep Jay in above them.

The problem I can see that Jay has it that everyone thinks he is going to win and therefore doesn't need their votes. He does need your votes. This has happened to favourites before and they have ended up in the dance off purely because people are just assuming they will get through. I will be voting for Jay tonight whether he tops the leader board or not.

The main opposition I think Jay has is Katie and Anton as voters will be voting for Anton not necessarily for Katie.

Hey Pices

Fret not, he'll be fine! Craig's doing the deliberately outrageous under-marking thing to set up the breathrough-week-story where he lifts up a 9 or 10 paddle and the audience goes wild. If anything, he's strengthening Jay's support as existing fans rally round their man and new fans join the Jay campaign 'cause he's been hard done by.

Trust me

I tend to agree with this.

But then I got it wrong last year....

OK .................I hope they do not leave it too late because once he is in the DO he will be a gonner.