That just makes him a crowd pleaser though , not the best dancer .It's supposed to be a dance comp , not a bonny baby competition to choose who can bat their baby blues and make you go all squidgy inside .

But in answer to the op , he will win, it has been decreed . Hardly seems fair to include such an intensely dance trained man in the competition, and no matter how much the other contestants give fluffy interviews about how they love each other there is sure to be an undercurrent of resentment that genuine newbies or those with just a dollop of stage school street dance or ballet are expected to pit their limited skills against such intense dance training .
When he takes the trophy there will always be a cloud over his win , in the same way other trained/highly experienced past winners get dishonourable mentions occasionally . Just my opinion .

It's his to lose, I think. But, as long as the dance off is there, nothing is certain. If he messes up again in the later weeks of the show and lands bottom of the leaderboard, it will be almost impossible to avoid the dance off, I think. Even with topping the public vote, doesn't it get to a point where only a complete reversal of the judges scoreboard can save the person at the bottom? Then if he messes up the dance off, the judges would have to vote him out, I guess.
I'm totally convinced though he's topping the public vote. So if he makes the final, he will win, no doubt.

What were your thoughts last year Ann? I don't think it was as clear-cut who'd win then, certainly not at the beginning when it looked like Jake would be the one to beat. Certainly towards the end the momentum was with Caroline and Pasha, and I had a strong feeling they'd win the week they performed their Charleston. But it wasn't obvious all the way through - especially after their trip to the bottom two.

Both Kristina and Ola have said he's the best dancer - but that doesn't mean he'll win as we know from the past.

On ITT or outside the main show, he has an endearing personality and cares about things - he can be funny, doesn't make a fuss, is a veggie, he tweeted with compassion about the terrible events in Paris. But that doesn't mean he will win as many people only look at the main show.

His 'training' may put people off - though to be fair Helen and Kellie have more and better training, Georgia perhaps doesn't have quite as much. Though Peter isn't trained he has years of singing and dancing (to his songs)

Think of the semi-final with just 5 good dancers left in. Say the other 4 do very well, but Jay could go wrong so bottom of the judges' leaderboard. If his public support isn't as high as we all think, he could be in the dance-off.

Personally, I'm a Jay fan but also like Anita, liked Jeremy and Georgia makes me smile. Really hope he gets to the final 3 as I love to see him dance and would like to see all his dances.

But from his point of view he's done enough already to kick start any new career, as has been said.

Does he want to win? His Mum has said he's so laid back he's nearly horizontal. But he loves dancing, would want carry on dancing with his new group of friends and he'd probably like to win for Aliona.

If the winner is chosen based only in public vote - he will. But that is not the case is it?

As the judges' record shows he could easily go down on the leaderboard and once he is in tne dance off, it's not sure how tne judges will vote. Because other contestants have been scoring much better than him in the past weeks, thry may want to boost them. And the dance off is a live performance - you can never tell especially with him.

However let's assume he gets to the final three. They dance and they are scored by the judges. Does this score have any effect in the final result and to what extent? I thought it was a combination of the highest score by judges but maybe I'm wrong?

To be honest I think it depends on how he dances. It's entirely up to him. He has the public vote, but not the judges vote so far.
So don't panic other contestants' supporters, your favourites have a perfect chance especially because they are consistent and in the judges' good books.
Nothing is decided yet. Stay calm.

FYI I support Jay and Aliona and hope they get to the final so they can dance the most dances they can.

This is where I am totally out of touch with the happening crowd. I know Wanted were much more successful in the US than here but I got the impression it was pretty much flash in the pan even there, and they were left scrabbling round to pay their tax bills (I know that can happen with poor management even to the 'greats' but it doesn't smack of long-term fan bases). Are we saying American girlies are getting up in their thousands in the middle of the night to get their IP blocked three votes in the 120 mins voting slot?

I think Jay has been in the lead from week 1, but Georgia is on a trajectory and Jay is flatlining. Depends what happens next really, Jay needs a second wow dance soon (a real one, not one engineered by producers and played out by the judges) or he'll be in Sophie Ellis Bextor territory.

Making a sweeping generalisation here but in recent years, I think male top contenders have attracted supporters immediately, and female ones tend to build their support slowly, as viewers get to know them and the partnership.

(Maybe this is because the "boys" tend to be popstars and sports people and the "girls" actresses and models, so we start out feeling we don't know the girls, because the are playing roles? Not that I've crunched the numbers of male/female contenders from each career path, just thinking purely in terms of who stands out from the last 4 or 5 series)

That is precisely what I mean . It's been set up panto style .
First he does a nervous nelly dance first week .
Then he does a good jive and gets the first 10 .
Then he messes up his next routines or they are just meh .
Then it's "OH MY GOD ! He has danced perfection . Where did that come from after so much rubbish routines from him ?" . Causing craig to implode and wave his 10 paddle excitedly .Predictable and terribly in the x factor 'against all odds' mode of controlling the outcome .
Part of the plan really , which will be disappointing as I thought craig to be the most honest judge .

The one thing I'm sure of is that the judges would (rightly) put him through any DO over anyone else regardless of mistakes - it's the assumption he's winning the public vote I'm more questioning.

I know nothing of Jay or much of The Wanted other than having some of their hits on my iPod but I strongly doubt there are fans overseas voting in droves. He posted a pic of Aliona on his Instagram and many of the comments were asking who she was so I can only assume it's not that well known he's doing the show.

I can't see the judges put Jay through no matter what. That would make a total farce of the dance off, and leave a very bad taste if he were to go on to win.

Jay will win, have you seen the polls.

Even the week just gone when his dance wasn't that great his followers still voted him as the best dance...

It may not be a fair finish, but he will win.

Nice to see that you agree that Jay is being undermarked purposely So really Craig is not very honest at all is he? Not only are the judges undermarking Jay but overmarking others for this ridiculous script. I do not really believe that they do this because they have a preferred winner .....I don't think they care, but like all RTV programmes these days they have to interfere with the process and manipulate it instead of letting it evolve organically.

There is nothing unfair about winning the vote it is what the viewers decide, what is unfair is not getting scores that you deserve because of manipulation.

I don't think you are out of touch, I think fanbase size and Twitter follower numbers isn't nearly as important as is given credit on here.

I can't remember any of the "no one else has a chance, look at the size of their fanbase" rumours producing a winner.

Frankie has approx 300,000 MORE than Jay. She didn't win.

I believe the rumours that Louis Smith is the only contender ever to have topped the public vote every single week of a series, but that was probably due to being an (unexpected) successful Olympian, in an Olympic year, when it took place in Britain (and Kimberley Walsh was the one whose fanbase was touted as the unstoppable juggernaught that year).

Ultimately, even a following of a million Twitter users is dwarfed by the 11.5 million or so reported to have watched last years final. A big fanbase might get you to the semi's, or even the final, but when the end-of-season-only voters start dialling in, you're vulnerable to the competitor with the perfect storm on the night.

He is easily the best dancer, but that does not mean he will win.

The best dancers never win SCD. The audience is made of all kinds of people, of all ages and attitudes.

And then there's the Strictly manipulation of votes and crazy marking.

Nothing is for sure and, quite frankly, does it honestly matter?

Exposure is far more valuable for him than some dodgy plastic glitter ball

No, they voted for their favourite, which is what we are told to do! Otherwise they wouldn't even bother assigning the crapola dancers a phone line!

I haven't officially voted at all yet (I don't watch the show live) but I have picked Jay on the online polls on here periodically (I've also picked Anita, Kellie, Georgia and Helen). People pick favourites for a variety of reasons, and even in proper competition there is always an element of judges taste involved when the thing to be judged is artistic in nature.

You dreamed that bit , so the rest of your post makes no sense at all .

Yeah, and being a gracious runner up can actually do more for certain public personas than winning does!
I'll always think fondly of Natalie Gumede, who in my opinion produced the best show dance ever, where if she had actually won, I'd probably feel less protective of her/interested in what she's doing career wise.

I don't think he has a 100% lock on it, because anything can happen. He could do a dodgy dance Week 11, be bottom of the leaderboard, and be up against someone less popular who scored very highly. Georgia's got momentum at the moment, and if all goes well Katie's got the perfect dances left to build momentum. Anita/Helen/Kellie/Peter could do an absolute knockout dance that tops his Jive (unlikely, but possible).

He's favourite to win, but not guaranteed.

The polls and app threads are not a true guideline of anything though . It's just the same people over and over posting endless reams of love for a person in them, or nudging their favourite to the front of the queue . They mean nothing of import . Most of the forum just ignore them after the initial excitement of the first couple of weeks because we become more interested in the dancing with all it's errors and mishaps and dodginess(when that happens) rather than in trying to force our favourites up everyone elses' noses day after day .

I feel the same DiamondB. She was superb - and streets ahead of anyone else. She handled it all so well and people were very nasty about her.

SCD does really bring out the very worst in online posters, trolls and WUMs across all fora and social media.

Almost as bad as the Guardian

Nah, they were a one hit wonder in the States. I was thinking more of the international markets which aren't big money but which nevertheless have big fan numbers. I wasn't aware of any specific ones but it seems that the online sources for his videos that arent geoblocked get massively bigger numbers than the ones that are. It was just a hunch. Even if he's not pulling in a Philippines or Brazil or wherever, I still think the online voting system is in his credit column.

Well you were agreeing with another poster about Craigs undermarking or so it seemed. Mind you I have seen a lot of your posts that seem to be contrary to other posts you make so maybe you just lose track sometimes.

I apologise for any implication that upset you. That wasn't my intention.