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How much weight to put on the polls? And which ones do you trust?
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hownwbrowncow
18-12-2015
I'm surprised to see that in the Telegraph vote, Katie is leading - she has the most plus votes: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/t...ie-bright.html

Jay however is leading the Tellymix and DS polls. Why is Katie randomly doing so well in the Telegraph one when she's last on the other ones?

Who do we trust?!
Domestos
18-12-2015
I was hoping to have a poll.
Tall Paul
18-12-2015
I'd say tellymix.co.uk and here are the ones which are the nearest to the truth.
Monkseal
18-12-2015
It's obvious that Telegraph poll has been gamed - you can see from the number of people who have given their opinion of Georgia and Kellie (approx 900-1000) the baseline interest in the poll, and then you can extrapolate from the much larger number of people who have voted their opinion on Jay and Katie (2,500-2,800) that two fanbases have got involved in a multivote war to try to propel their fave to the top. As such the entire poll is useless, except possibly to determine that Georgia looks to be more popular than Kellie.
Jim Kowalski
18-12-2015
The Telegraph poll will reflect the tastes of Telegraph readers,presumably.
hownwbrowncow
18-12-2015
Originally Posted by Monkseal:
“It's obvious that Telegraph poll has been gamed - you can see from the number of people who have given their opinion of Georgia and Kellie (approx 900-1000) the baseline interest in the poll, and then you can extrapolate from the much larger number of people who have voted their opinion on Jay and Katie (2,500-2,800) that two fanbases have got involved in a multivote war to try to propel their fave to the top. As such the entire poll is useless, except possibly to determine that Georgia looks to be more popular than Kellie.”

But you can just as easy mutlivote on the Tellymix poll

I don't really understand your point to be honest; why couldn't this logic be applied to any other polls?
fridgesoup
18-12-2015
The Telegraph poll was hacked last week. Until then Jay lead it every week and Katie was fairly low. Suddenly, when last week's poll launched, Katie was plus 800 and Jay minus 800 and Katie's vote kept leaping up in exactly the same number of hundreds as Jays went down
Gill P
18-12-2015
Originally Posted by fridgesoup:
“The Telegraph poll was hacked last week. Until then Jay lead it every week and Katie was fairly low. Suddenly, when last week's poll launched, Katie was plus 800 and Jay minus 800 and Katie's vote kept leaping up in exactly the same number of hundreds as Jays went down ”

Katie is a Telegraph columnist! Any connection? And you could only vote once each week on that poll so multivoting didn't come into it.
hownwbrowncow
18-12-2015
Originally Posted by fridgesoup:
“The Telegraph poll was hacked last week. Until then Jay lead it every week and Katie was fairly low. Suddenly, when last week's poll launched, Katie was plus 800 and Jay minus 800 and Katie's vote kept leaping up in exactly the same number of hundreds as Jays went down ”

Oh I see
Monkseal
18-12-2015
Originally Posted by hownwbrowncow:
“But you can just as easy mutlivote on the Tellymix poll

I don't really understand your point to be honest; why couldn't this logic be applied to any other polls?”

Because the way the figures are laid out in the Telegraph poll make it obvious it's been subject to tampering (particularly if, as fridgesoup says, the numbers have been jumping up by 100s in a short time space, suggesting a mechanised voting systems or a hack), meaning it's useless. If the vote was running fairly the total number of opinions offered for the four celebs would be the same, because whoever voted would click once (either positively or negatively) for all of them. Instead people have clearly been multivoting on only two of the four options. It's different to the telemix poll, which is just raw "positive" numbers, so it's impossible to tell if it's been significantly tampered with/multivoted on.
Gwaed Waedlyd
18-12-2015
Didn't the telegraph poll have Jay way in front one night and then suddenly over night he went down a few places. Think either on individual voted like mad to insure he went down and Katie went up or the poll screwed up overnight,
SKID1
18-12-2015
Originally Posted by hownwbrowncow:
“I'm surprised to see that in the Telegraph vote, Katie is leading - she has the most plus votes: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/t...ie-bright.html

Jay however is leading the Tellymix and DS polls. Why is Katie randomly doing so well in the Telegraph one when she's last on the other ones?

Who do we trust?!”

Question 1. About 10 stone
Question 2. Don't trust the polls
BMLisa
18-12-2015
Originally Posted by Monkseal:
“It's obvious that Telegraph poll has been gamed - you can see from the number of people who have given their opinion of Georgia and Kellie (approx 900-1000) the baseline interest in the poll, and then you can extrapolate from the much larger number of people who have voted their opinion on Jay and Katie (2,500-2,800) that two fanbases have got involved in a multivote war to try to propel their fave to the top. As such the entire poll is useless, except possibly to determine that Georgia looks to be more popular than Kellie.”

I honestly don't think Jay fans have had much to do with it, except to vote in the normal way.

He's had between 1-1.3k of upvotes pretty much every week that the poll has been running. It's only the downvotes that are drastically increased. And likewise Katies upvotes.

Also I'm pretty sure it's one vote (I've only been able to do one vote per poll anyway)

Also earlier in the week they restarted it (Tuesday I think) and at that point Katie was up 1000 and everyone else was down 1000. So someone messing with it clearly. 2.8k interaction for Jay is very high as I said most weeks he gets around 1.3k upvotes and a few hundred down votes which is consistent with Georgia and Kellie. It's only Katies upvotes and Jays down votes that are wildly inconsistent with previous weeks.

ETA- I only ever upvote Jay and don't downvotes anyone, his interaction is always a little higher, but not that much.
jtnorth
18-12-2015
I don't think any of them mean much because most people don't bother to answer polls. Also with a lot of them it's not clear if people are supposed to say who they like or who they think will win, which are completely different questions.
Becky245
18-12-2015
Apart from the telegraph poll Jay has led every single one I have seen. I'll be very surprised if he doesn't win tomorrow because I think he's just too popular for anyone else to catch up.
BeeBumble
18-12-2015
Not much and none of them. The only 'poll' that matters is the one the main vote on the show.
fridgesoup
18-12-2015
Originally Posted by BeeBumble:
“Not much and none of them. The only 'poll' that matters is the one the main vote on the show.”

True.
Elsa
19-12-2015
Originally Posted by Monkseal:
“Because the way the figures are laid out in the Telegraph poll make it obvious it's been subject to tampering (particularly if, as fridgesoup says, the numbers have been jumping up by 100s in a short time space, suggesting a mechanised voting systems or a hack), meaning it's useless. If the vote was running fairly the total number of opinions offered for the four celebs would be the same, because whoever voted would click once (either positively or negatively) for all of them. Instead people have clearly been multivoting on only two of the four options. It's different to the telemix poll, which is just raw "positive" numbers, so it's impossible to tell if it's been significantly tampered with/multivoted on.”

This is probably irrelevant but years ago, I was a fan of a daytime soap opera in America - and was active on a forum that had an insider (we knew she was because she could tell us where the plots were going and which actors were leaving soon etc.) Anyway, she told us that the network (ABC) paid interns to power-vote on magazine polls about which was your favourite actor and even your favourite fictional couple.

I was gobsmacked. But anyway, apparently they believed they could manipulate public opinion on these polls in widely read magazines devoted to soap operas. Well, I think they actually DID succeed (I think) - the actors promoted in these mags had the most staying power.
mystery23
19-12-2015
Don't know how much of a correlation it is but on Big Brother tellymix was always the most reliable and nearly always indicated the correct eviction/winner result.
Cadiva
19-12-2015
Originally Posted by hownwbrowncow:
“I'm surprised to see that in the Telegraph vote, Katie is leading - she has the most plus votes: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/t...ie-bright.html

Jay however is leading the Tellymix and DS polls. Why is Katie randomly doing so well in the Telegraph one when she's last on the other ones?

Who do we trust?!”

None and none to answer the question.
curvybabes
19-12-2015
I watch nearly all reality shows and TellyMix poll is always spot on.
hisdogspot
19-12-2015
Tellymix is almost always the most accurate poll.

Given that Jay has over 60% of a four-way vote on that forum, I would say the glitter- ball is his already.

And quite right too ... he is the best dancer by a country mile
Gill P
19-12-2015
I am glad that the OP started the poll because the manipulation by the Telegraph (or somebody with access to the workings of the poll) is very wrong.
David Waine
19-12-2015
I don't place any trust in polls of any description. They are merely answers given by a limited number of randomly selected people. Nobody even knows whether everybody answered honestly. The only poll that counts is the one that is made over the phone this evening.

As for the winner, I want Georgia to win, but I think that Jay will. I would be happy enough with that. They are comfortably the best dancers in the series, although Kellie's undeniable 'have a go' attitude may make her a dark horse.
CravenHaven
19-12-2015
Georgia is the real winner of Strictly Come Dancing, no matter who wins the glitterball.
She's the one who has got slightly better every week, instead of Jay who was just 'rediscovering' his dance. Plus, he's personally tedious.
There's a big difference between finding someone a nice safe boy to partner your daughter, and them as a showbiz personality.
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