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Weather Watching - Enthusiasts Thread
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blueblade
16-04-2016
Shower of soft hail or "graupel" here recently.
mushymanrob
16-04-2016
after a fairly pleasant week coming up, its looking likely that winter might return next weekend with another potent arctic blast which looks longer then todays blip.
Rich Tea.
16-04-2016
Originally Posted by TOTP_81:
“Right now it's snowing here in south of Scotland, not bad for 15th April 2016, but we have to beat 2nd June 1975 for a rather late fall.”

Check this out then - widespread snowfalls and coverage across England in mid May in 1955.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/n/May1955.pdf
d'@ve
16-04-2016
Originally Posted by Rich Tea.:
“Check this out then - widespread snowfalls and coverage across England in mid May in 1955.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/n/May1955.pdf”

Yes, cold May with snow, cool June but then... July, August and September were mainly dry, sunny and warm or hot (albeit with the odd spell of thunderstorms).

So whatever happens this month and next, it will have no bearing on the summer weather to follow, which could be anything.
5hane
16-04-2016
I knew it would be wet where I live this morning because the BBC weather forecast said it would be dry.
Rich Tea.
17-04-2016
Originally Posted by d'@ve:
“Yes, cold May with snow, cool June but then... July, August and September were mainly dry, sunny and warm or hot (albeit with the odd spell of thunderstorms).

So whatever happens this month and next, it will have no bearing on the summer weather to follow, which could be anything.”

Do you, or anyone else, fancy giving a prediction on what you think the summer of 2016 is going to be like?

I'll post a prediction, but not until I've consulted Jeremy Corbyn's brother first!

The temperature is bang on 0.0c as I write very early this Sunday morning. I had thought it might even get colder than that. I've recorded 36mm of rain halfway through April but the coming week looks dry in my area.
blueblade
17-04-2016
Originally Posted by Rich Tea.:
“Do you, or anyone else, fancy giving a prediction on what you think the summer of 2016 is going to be like?

I'll post a prediction, but not until I've consulted Jeremy Corbyn's brother first!

The temperature is bang on 0.0c as I write very early this Sunday morning. I had thought it might even get colder than that. I've recorded 36mm of rain halfway through April but the coming week looks dry in my area.”

lol

If I was to take a guess based on not very much in particular, I'd say this Summer will be more a more thundery one than for some time past. Probably wet at times, humid and warm, but not exceptionally hot - although that doesn't preclude some hot days. All guesswork and you might just as well consult the Daily Express

Summer meaning June to August, of course.
mushymanrob
17-04-2016
if the experts cant predict what this summer will be like with any degree of certainty.... im sure amateurs cant! lol

meanwhile - dont be fooled by this weeks increasingly pleasant weather... WINTER RETURNS next weekend with a lengthy period of very cold northerlies - and there will be snow somewhere (ok northern high ground most likely).
blueblade
17-04-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“if the experts cant predict what this summer will be like with any degree of certainty.... im sure amateurs cant! lol

meanwhile - dont be fooled by this weeks increasingly pleasant weather... WINTER RETURNS next weekend with a lengthy period of very cold northerlies - and there will be snow somewhere (ok northern high ground most likely).”

Northerlies and North Easterlies are not at all unusual in April, and often well into May as well.

Meanwhile it's a glorious day here in Essex with gin clear blue sky and a powerful Sun, albeit with chilly air. Probably the same over a huge swathe of England and Wales right now.

As you say this week looks likely to be dry with high pressure sitting on top of us, but it might not be clear skies all the time. When it is, it will feel very pleasant in the Sun, the strength of which will offset the not terribly high temperatures.
mushymanrob
17-04-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Northerlies and North Easterlies are not at all unusual in April, and often well into May as well.

.”

true.... but whats currently expected is deep sourced cold polar air, and more then just a 48 hour blast. whats currently expected is something as bad as spring 1975, which could last for a while, currently a week at least. of course this could change but models are pretty strong on this.

the anomaly charts (noaa charts) have the upper air flow sourced from north greenland. i think thats the most northerly track ive ever seen them predict.

so whats caught my eye, is the length and severity currently expected. i will be delighted if the current expectations are wrong!
TOTP_81
17-04-2016
The way the weather pattern is running currently, it suggests to me we could be in for a very long dry summer with high temperatures during the day
Big brother tv
17-04-2016
I think it might snow here next weekend which will be interesting just for the location. I've seen snow in Northern Ireland in May so it's not that big of a deal there.
Big brother tv
17-04-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Northerlies and North Easterlies are not at all unusual in April, and often well into May as well.

Meanwhile it's a glorious day here in Essex with gin clear blue sky and a powerful Sun, albeit with chilly air. Probably the same over a huge swathe of England and Wales right now.

As you say this week looks likely to be dry with high pressure sitting on top of us, but it might not be clear skies all the time. When it is, it will feel very pleasant in the Sun, the strength of which will offset the not terribly high temperatures.”

Yeah but ones that produce snow in England are extremely rare. Snow in April in Northern Ireland and Scotland aren't so rare in even May.
Rich Tea.
17-04-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Shower of soft hail or "graupel" here recently.”

I've never knowingly heard that word to describe a soft snowy like hail before. Fascinating.

The one really cold May that I can clearly remember was not that long ago historically speaking - May 1996, which if I recall correctly from the time was noted as the coldest May across the country since 1941.
TelevisionUser
17-04-2016
I have some general links to post in case they are of interest:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...4.00&lat=55.01

https://cloudappreciationsociety.org/

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/health/p...ime=1460862000

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_light...aps.php?map=12

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm

http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=ty...HS4jD-cQsAQIIg


One of the things to look out for in the summer months is noctilucent clouds:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noctilucent_cloud

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=no..._AUIBigB&dpr=1
Rich Tea.
18-04-2016
Michael Fish doing his weekly weather forecast which comes out each Friday on Netweather, by the looks of it from his study at home. Here is this weeks current one;

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...yid=7300;sess=
blueblade
18-04-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“true.... but whats currently expected is deep sourced cold polar air, and more then just a 48 hour blast. whats currently expected is something as bad as spring 1975, which could last for a while, currently a week at least. of course this could change but models are pretty strong on this.

the anomaly charts (noaa charts) have the upper air flow sourced from north greenland. i think thats the most northerly track ive ever seen them predict.

so whats caught my eye, is the length and severity currently expected. i will be delighted if the current expectations are wrong! ”

Hmmm.......I'm trying not to think about it just yet. Hopefully this week will give us some decent weather first, even if not spectacularly warm.

Originally Posted by Big brother tv:
“Yeah but ones that produce snow in England are extremely rare. Snow in April in Northern Ireland and Scotland aren't so rare in even May.”

No they aren't extremely rare. Snow over England in April is not unusual and weather history is littered with many examples.

Originally Posted by Rich Tea.:
“I've never knowingly heard that word to describe a soft snowy like hail before. Fascinating.

The one really cold May that I can clearly remember was not that long ago historically speaking - May 1996, which if I recall correctly from the time was noted as the coldest May across the country since 1941.”

I only read about the term for the first time in an old weather book from the 1950's which I've got
Big brother tv
18-04-2016
Yeah but not on the 25th of April. Don't be pedantic!
mushymanrob
18-04-2016
well the predictive models are firming up on a pretty lengthy very cold spell from next weekend onwards, possibly for 2 weeks, maybe longer.

it really is looking like the severest cold spell since 1975.... and there will be snow. (for some)
Rich Tea.
18-04-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“well the predictive models are firming up on a pretty lengthy very cold spell from next weekend onwards, possibly for 2 weeks, maybe longer.

it really is looking like the severest cold spell since 1975.... and there will be snow. (for some)”

I was only thinking over the weekend that the weather doesn't feel any different, infact colder, than it did way back in that remarkable December and a lot of the rest of winter just gone. Yet that was 4 months ago and we are barely 8 or 9 weeks from the longest day, and still talking of wintery conditions and possible snowfall on the cusp of May. Because of the December and Christmas mildness it really doesn't feel like we have made much progress into the seasonal warmth expected yet, indeed even going backwards.

John Hammond did actually mention the snowfall event of late April 1981 before his forecast yesterday.
mushymanrob
20-04-2016
the severity of the cold spell has modified a bit, but from saturday onwards its still bitterly cold / cold for the foreseeable. unsettled too. night frosts will be common.
blueblade
20-04-2016
Originally Posted by Big brother tv:
“Yeah but not on the 25th of April. Don't be pedantic!”

What are you on about?
Big brother tv
20-04-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“the severity of the cold spell has modified a bit, but from saturday onwards its still bitterly cold / cold for the foreseeable. unsettled too. night frosts will be common.”

The GFS has -9c 850pha upper air temperatuers over me on Sunday, I don't see how that is modified given that it is now the end of April.
Big brother tv
24-04-2016
It snowed here in Norwich at 5am.
Rich Tea.
25-04-2016
Originally Posted by Big brother tv:
“It snowed here in Norwich at 5am.”

Yes, they showed that during the Sunday evening weather on Look East.

Like I've said on here already, it feels like we have made no seasonal weather progress since the depths of autumn and winter 4 or 5 months ago, even gone backwards and June is just 5 weeks away now.

I do find the forecasters keeping on about "Arctic blasts" and blue graphics covering the UK quite misleading. Daytime temperatures may be chilly for late April but are not hovering around the freezing point for most of the country. On Sunday I registered 11.6c for instance, following a night minimum of 2.4c and even now the night time is a quite ordinary 5c.

Just looking at my old weather registers from the 1985-87 period and on this day in 1986 when I was still in school the temperature was 17.5c with thunder and heavy rain as I took the readings at 5pm. Next day I recorded 20c.

This day in 1987 is a huge contrast to this year however - 25th April 1987 and I recorded a maximum of 26.5c, so that's hitting 80f, and sunny and dry. There were many similar temperatures that last week of April too. I recorded 7 consecutive days between the 22nd and 28th April with not a cloud in the sky at the time of my afternoon readings. Same location as I still am at today, on the left.
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