DS Forums

 
 

Weather Watching - Enthusiasts Thread


Reply
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 12-06-2016, 08:10
blueblade
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Southern East Anglia
Posts: 75,216
Is it my imagination or have the forecasters at the BBC made a rather big error with this weekend's weather? Last week and right up until Thursday we kept being told that it would become far fresher on Friday with a noticeable difference. Except it hasn't. Early Sunday morning and it is as clammy as ever, with 86% humidity and a temperature of 16.1c currently at 3am. Some areas on both Friday and Saturday have continued to have very heavy rainfall and thunderstorms - not my area this time thankfully, after our Tuesday deluge. But a very large area of southern and eastern England is under a yellow weather warning during Sunday for further storms and torrential downpours.

The fresher conditions taking the storms away have simply not arrived as indicated on Friday. It seems like a noticeably significant forecast error to me.
Yes, I agree. They have referred to a "cooling trend", but the high humidity has meant that slightly lower temperatures still feel very warm. Also, the nights are just as warm. Friday evening, for example, I felt more warm and uncomfortable than at any time during the really warm sunny days.

One thing is for sure, with a large, slack and slow moving low pressure system taking up residence right over the UK during the coming week, we can expect more thunderstorms, especially if the Sun comes out for any length of time, pushing temperatures up.
blueblade is offline   Reply With Quote
Please sign in or register to remove this advertisement.
Old 12-06-2016, 09:31
mushymanrob
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: derby
Posts: 14,740
it will become fresher though later in the week as this low departs and we pick up a bit of a northerly.

do i spy the first sign of the building blocks appearing for a heatwave in about 12 days time?... looks like the azores high might displace towards us and the good news is that theres no large strong greenland high and southerly tracking jet...

so endure this weeks rather overcast showery weather, towards late june we could be on the brink of a real decent hot spell!


itll all go tits up now
mushymanrob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2016, 09:45
blueblade
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Southern East Anglia
Posts: 75,216
it will become fresher though later in the week as this low departs and we pick up a bit of a northerly.

do i spy the first sign of the building blocks appearing for a heatwave in about 12 days time?... looks like the azores high might displace towards us and the good news is that theres no large strong greenland high and southerly tracking jet...

so endure this weeks rather overcast showery weather, towards late june we could be on the brink of a real decent hot spell!


itll all go tits up now
It may all go tits up, but I thought exactly the same as you.
blueblade is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2016, 11:43
mushymanrob
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: derby
Posts: 14,740
It may all go tits up, but I thought exactly the same as you.
noaa anomaly charts support a rise in pressure though , over scandinavia and to our near southwest. over the last 3 days the 8-14 day chart has displaced the azores high and is sending it our way.

if we are lucky, and have correctly spotted the evolution, over the next 3 days or so id expect these charts to build high pressure over us or even to our near east. ill be watching that run of charts very closely.
mushymanrob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2016, 17:14
Rich Tea.
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,352
Yet another big thunderstorm with torrential rain is bearing down on me in Newport Pagnell right at this moment!

Unlike last Tuesday at least I'm staying dry this time.
Rich Tea. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2016, 17:43
Rich Tea.
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,352
Absolutely staggered.

In less than half an hour since 5.15pm we've just had 25mm of rainfall.
Rich Tea. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2016, 21:04
blueblade
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Southern East Anglia
Posts: 75,216
Absolutely staggered.

In less than half an hour since 5.15pm we've just had 25mm of rainfall.
The UK 30 minute record, which surprised me as I didn't think it was that high, was set on 26th June 1953 at Eskdalemuir, with 80 mm.

Even so, 25mm in 28 minutes, is still pretty impressive.
blueblade is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13-06-2016, 12:07
bri160356
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Made it Ma, Top of the World!
Posts: 3,999
noaa anomaly charts support a rise in pressure though , over scandinavia and to our near southwest. over the last 3 days the 8-14 day chart has displaced the azores high and is sending it our way.

if we are lucky, and have correctly spotted the evolution, over the next 3 days or so id expect these charts to build high pressure over us or even to our near east. ill be watching that run of charts very closely.
They’ve just had an amateur climatologist on ITV’s ‘This Morning’ and he has forecast almost cataclysmic weather for the rest of the summer,… based on his various observations of plants, shrubs and assorted wild-life.

This amateur climatologist (with the emphasis on ‘amateur’) is obviously a complete lunatic because he never even mentioned the Seagulls or the Salmon;

…two creatures that I consult on a regular basis for my predictions.
bri160356 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14-06-2016, 03:31
Rich Tea.
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,352
The UK 30 minute record, which surprised me as I didn't think it was that high, was set on 26th June 1953 at Eskdalemuir, with 80 mm.

Even so, 25mm in 28 minutes, is still pretty impressive.
It ended up as 31mm in about an hour. That means in two separate late afternoons just 5 days apart there have been daily rainfall amounts over 30mm, totalling 65mm all of which effectively fell in an aggregate time of barely much more than a couple of hours.

By 9pm on Sunday night the water was a couple of inches deep around the house and driveway, not having seeped away very much, so I put on my waterproof winter snowboots and went out and opened the manhole on the driveway to allow some of the sitting rainwater to flow away into it, then spent a while sweeping as much down it as I could.
Rich Tea. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14-06-2016, 06:55
1manonthebog
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 2,324
Well we seem to have jumped straight into Autumn this past few days here in N.I, wet and windy and temps noticeably down.
1manonthebog is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 14-06-2016, 11:46
mintbro
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,227
Here in London it's wet but very warm. Not a fan of days like this, I've got a light summer jacket on because of the rain but it's too warm to be wearing it.
mintbro is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 14-06-2016, 16:33
Rich Tea.
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,352
Here we go again - storm time!

Exceptionally dark and threatening black clouds have slowly come along in the past half hour and now the torrential rain has hit just this moment and some thunder and lightning has begun to sound off.
Rich Tea. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14-06-2016, 16:45
muggins14
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: The Pit of Despair
Posts: 50,183
Well we seem to have jumped straight into Autumn this past few days here in N.I, wet and windy and temps noticeably down.
Timed perfectly - just ordered lots of nice summer clothes for my daughter.
muggins14 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14-06-2016, 18:33
blueblade
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Southern East Anglia
Posts: 75,216
Here we go again - storm time!

Exceptionally dark and threatening black clouds have slowly come along in the past half hour and now the torrential rain has hit just this moment and some thunder and lightning has begun to sound off.
You're getting all the storms. We've hardly had any.
blueblade is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14-06-2016, 19:43
Rich Tea.
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,352
You're getting all the storms. We've hardly had any.
It threatened more than it delivered in the end, with only a modest few strikes of thunder and lightning, but it became dark enough to put a few street lights on for a while, and dumped 8mm of rain in about 15 to 20 minutes, still a decent rain rate.

You say you're in "Southern East Anglia" Blueblade, does that mean Essex then? That area seems to have missed much of it today but "Northern East Anglia" has been getting it. Sunday night I did notice our big storm cross slowly eastwards over the south of the region into Essex and reach areas like Clacton and Felixstowe on the coast a few hours later still looking potent.

That Azores high that has been mentioned looks like proving a disappointment at this stage, only having a brief influence over the UK in about 4 or 5 days over this weekend before being pushed south into the continent and allowing a renewed low pressure pattern from the Atlantic to resume.
Rich Tea. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14-06-2016, 20:02
blueblade
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Southern East Anglia
Posts: 75,216
It threatened more than it delivered in the end, with only a modest few strikes of thunder and lightning, but it became dark enough to put a few street lights on for a while, and dumped 8mm of rain in about 15 to 20 minutes, still a decent rain rate.

You say you're in "Southern East Anglia" Blueblade, does that mean Essex then? That area seems to have missed much of it today but "Northern East Anglia" has been getting it. Sunday night I did notice our big storm cross slowly eastwards over the south of the region into Essex and reach areas like Clacton and Felixstowe on the coast a few hours later still looking potent.

That Azores high that has been mentioned looks like proving a disappointment at this stage, only having a brief influence over the UK in about 4 or 5 days over this weekend before being pushed south into the continent and allowing a renewed low pressure pattern from the Atlantic to resume.
Yes, Essex, Chelmsford to be precise. They seem to pass all sides of this area, but not the city itself. Never mind - our day will come !!!

Unfortunately, as you say, the Azores ridge looks very temporary.
blueblade is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15-06-2016, 12:33
mushymanrob
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: derby
Posts: 14,740
They’ve just had an amateur climatologist on ITV’s ‘This Morning’ and he has forecast almost cataclysmic weather for the rest of the summer,… based on his various observations of plants, shrubs and assorted wild-life.

This amateur climatologist (with the emphasis on ‘amateur’) is obviously a complete lunatic because he never even mentioned the Seagulls or the Salmon;

…two creatures that I consult on a regular basis for my predictions.
lol.. nature is responsive not predictive, if it was as simple as that we would have sussed that eons ago, especially as our ancestors worked very closely with nature.


meanwhile - it doesnt now look like we will get a heatwave next week, although a return to dry (or drier) average summery weather will be very pleasant, and warm, especially in any sun.
mushymanrob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15-06-2016, 12:36
francie
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 20,674
Thunder rumblings and rain lashing down in my part of Somerset.
francie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15-06-2016, 12:38
1fab
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 13,311
Thunder rumblings and rain lashing down in my part of Somerset.
Same here (also in Somerset).
1fab is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15-06-2016, 12:40
francie
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 20,674
Same here (also in Somerset).
Bummer as we have had some glorious weather
francie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15-06-2016, 12:46
1fab
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 13,311
Bummer as we have had some glorious weather
Should be better by the weekend, supposedly...
1fab is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15-06-2016, 13:08
d'@ve
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Darn Sarf
Posts: 28,729
Total rainfall yesterday and today so far here in S Hants... 1 mm.

Long may that continue.
d'@ve is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15-06-2016, 13:11
bri160356
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Made it Ma, Top of the World!
Posts: 3,999
Total rainfall yesterday and today so far here in S Hants... 1 mm.

Long may that continue.
...water shortage and a stand-pipe in the street beckons d'@ve.
bri160356 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15-06-2016, 13:39
blueblade
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Southern East Anglia
Posts: 75,216
Should be better by the weekend, supposedly...
Temporarily
blueblade is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15-06-2016, 13:42
1fab
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 13,311
I suppose all weather's temporary.
1fab is offline   Reply With Quote
 
Reply




 
Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 03:28.