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Weather Watching - Enthusiasts Thread
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Rich Tea.
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“true the summers of 90 and 76 both had cooler cloudier spells mid june... but neither had the torrential rains, both summers were extremely dry (the great drought of 76) and 90 was bone dry too.

of course trying to guess the weather for a month or two haed is foolish, and despite being 'like' another, theres no certainty that it will follow suit.

imho we are long overdue for a long hot dry summer.... 2013?.. yeah in the southeast, and it was the 'best' summer since 06, but it wasnt an 06, 03, 95, 91, 90, 83, 76, 75... i cut grass for a living, in 'good' summers i lose work as the grass browns off. its ten years now since i lost work through drought stress, the longest period since i started work back in '73. hence we are overdue... and this year since early may we have been dallying with a possible great heatwave, the synoptics have almost been right but have not quite hit the nail on the head.

so im rather optimistic, looking ahead into the turning point of summer (late june early july - long hot summers have usually shown their hand by about july 10th at the latest) as we are close to getting something hot. theres a lot of high pressure around in the outlook... it would only take a small nudge to produce something spectacular!

on the other hand, this summer might be the 'nearly' summer, when the right synoptics just refuse to fall into place despite them being nearly there.”

Your list of summers I almost agree with except you put 1991 which was not a great summer. Not sure why you put it. But 1989 was a very good one and should have been in that list. So should 1984 and 1994. It did seem that great summers were coming along in pairs until recently, with 1975/76, 1983/84, 1989/90 and 1994/95. Some of these summers got off to slow starts but then became magnificent. The summer of 1997 sticks in my mind for an atrocious wet and dull June but the summer ended up quite decent with an absolutely scorching hot and dry August, not too unlike just two years earlier in 1995 infact. The summer of '95 was almost the equal of '76. It was magnificent.

It's a rule of thumb that the weather needs to change by the final week of June or the pattern tends to set for the remainder of summer, so if it has been wet and thundery like this year and continues into early July then it's likely to remain similar and be a poor summer. But if it changes around this time, as looks possible currently then the summer could come good.

You mention grass cutting and I've noticed so far this spring and summer that the grass seems to be growing extremely fast. Is that your perception as an expert in these things?
blueblade
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by Rich Tea.:
“Before the latest round of storms hit the south east of England (maybe Blueblade will get lucky this time) I should report that last Friday night between 8.30pm and 9pm we had an almighty torrential downpour which dumped another massive amount of rain in a short time, this time 20mm in half an hour. That sent my monthly rainfall through the 100mm mark up to 112mm. Then on Monday there was another 11mm so with only two thirds of the month gone I am on 123mm of rain for June.

So June 2016 has been damned wet! But I only have to go back to June 2012 when that month in my area had 143mm. Some may remember that day after day the Olympic torch was being run around the country in sopping wet and dull conditions. I also recorded my wettest ever month of June in 1987 with 147mm of rain when I first began collecting data as a teenager. One more heavy cloudburst and it could be beaten this year.

"Blazing June" has actually proved a significantly wet month down the years.”

Fingers crossed !!!

Considering there are still 9 days of this month left, that 1987 record is looking distinctly precarious
Marksw76
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by Rich Tea.:
“Your list of summers I almost agree with except you put 1991 which was not a great summer. Not sure why you put it. But 1989 was a very good one and should have been in that list. So should 1984 and 1994. It did seem that great summers were coming along in pairs until recently, with 1975/76, 1983/84, 1989/90 and 1994/95. Some of these summers got off to slow starts but then became magnificent. The summer of 1997 sticks in my mind for an atrocious wet and dull June but the summer ended up quite decent with an absolutely scorching hot and dry August, not too unlike just two years earlier in 1995 infact. The summer of '95 was almost the equal of '76. It was magnificent.

It's a rule of thumb that the weather needs to change by the final week of June or the pattern tends to set for the remainder of summer, so if it has been wet and thundery like this year and continues into early July then it's likely to remain similar and be a poor summer. But if it changes around this time, as looks possible currently then the summer could come good.

You mention grass cutting and I've noticed so far this spring and summer that the grass seems to be growing extremely fast. Is that your perception as an expert in these things?”

1995 started really badly I remember, May was terrible but it was the same pattern as 76, it suddenly got hot around midsummer and stayed that way for weeks.

The pairs thing is interesting although the pattern seems to have finshed 20 odd years ago. 2003 was an incredible August (didnt last as long as 95 though) but 2002/2004 were pretty grim from what I remember. 1999 was good but 1998/2000 were pretty grim also...
blueblade
25-06-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Fingers crossed !!!

Considering there are still 9 days of this month left, that 1987 record is looking distinctly precarious ”

Finally, we did get a cracker of a thunderstorm. But more notable for the intense rainfall over several hours. Fortunately quite high ground where I am, so no flooding issues. But many low lying properties flooded.
Andrue
25-06-2016
I'm slightly disconcerted at the way the dark grey clouds over my house seem to be moving in one direction to the east and the opposite direction to the west :-/

's been a funny old day weather-wise here in the south midlands.
blueblade
28-06-2016
Fairly dismal outlook for the next week or so. With the jet stream so far South, it looks like a succession of depressions crossing the UK West To East, with consequent unsettled, cool, wet weather. Windy at times too, especially around coasts.

Very unseasonal.

...now what about that fortnight in Madeira I promised myself?...
mushymanrob
28-06-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Fairly dismal outlook for the next week or so. With the jet stream so far South, it looks like a succession of depressions crossing the UK West To East, with consequent unsettled, cool, wet weather. Windy at times too, especially around coasts.

Very unseasonal.

...now what about that fortnight in Madeira I promised myself?...”

indeed.... i cant believe its gone so tits up after seemingly being on the cusp of a decent prolonged anticyclonic spell since early may.

this pattern could well last a long time, and i wouldnt be surprised if it lasts through july.
Marksw76
28-06-2016
So then weather enthuisiasts...

Are we getting to the point of the year where it's time to write the summer of 2016 off as another badun'??

Just when I thought 2013/2014/15 were starting to buck the trend we've gone back to the 2007/2008/2009/2011/2012 dreadful summers again....

Still, I need a cheap barbeque so I should be seeing some bargains soon I reckon!
blueblade
28-06-2016
Originally Posted by Marksw76:
“So then weather enthuisiasts...

Are we getting to the point of the year where it's time to write the summer of 2016 off as another badun'??

Just when I thought 2013/2014/15 were starting to buck the trend we've gone back to the 2007/2008/2009/2011/2012 dreadful summers again....

Still, I need a cheap barbeque so I should be seeing some bargains soon I reckon!”

Not necessarily - there's still time yet for a decent Summer, or at any rate several decent spells within it. Let's not forget that even in the poor Summer of 2012, late July and August were warm - very warm at times, with some dry Sunny hot days. Even 32C was reached on 18th August.

Don't write off 2016 just yet. Still early days.
mushymanrob
29-06-2016
depends what you mean by 'write off'....

the chances of a classic long hot summer 76, 83, 95, 03, have all but gone. i cannot see the pattern switching so markedly as to allow one.

so an average summer might be all we can hope for, it would be unusual to get NO shorter lives sunny/hot spells, but 85 did just that.

im sure we will get shorter spells of warm summery weather, we might even get an odd week, (dont hold your breath for that though), but we wont be getting a classic hot one thats pretty certain (but nothings 100%) .
Marksw76
29-06-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Not necessarily - there's still time yet for a decent Summer, or at any rate several decent spells within it. Let's not forget that even in the poor Summer of 2012, late July and August were warm - very warm at times, with some dry Sunny hot days. Even 32C was reached on 18th August.

Don't write off 2016 just yet. Still early days.”

I missed the 'heatwave' of 2012, I think that might have been a south east thing only. All I remember is watching Olympic torch ceremonies in the pouring rain and floods. Nasty!

Quote:
“depends what you mean by 'write off'....

the chances of a classic long hot summer 76, 83, 95, 03, have all but gone. i cannot see the pattern switching so markedly as to allow one.

so an average summer might be all we can hope for, it would be unusual to get NO shorter lives sunny/hot spells, but 85 did just that.

im sure we will get shorter spells of warm summery weather, we might even get an odd week, (dont hold your breath for that though), but we wont be getting a classic hot one thats pretty certain (but nothings 100%) .”

I kind of always hope for one of those but alas never seems to work out nowadays!

I tend to forget August as it's usually grim, maybe see what July brings, but not looking go so far!!
mushymanrob
29-06-2016
Originally Posted by Marksw76:
“
I tend to forget August as it's usually grim, maybe see what July brings, but not looking go so far!!”

i write august off by mid month...

by then most of the summer flowers are over , nights are drawing in, the swifts have gone (sign of summer swifts screeching overhead) the sun is much lower in the sky..

true we can get nice days into september, but its not true summer imho
Marksw76
29-06-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“i write august off by mid month...

by then most of the summer flowers are over , nights are drawing in, the swifts have gone (sign of summer swifts screeching overhead) the sun is much lower in the sky..

true we can get nice days into september, but its not true summer imho”

Its kind of nice though isnt it?

I kind of like that autumn 'back to school' air that we used to get. Don't know if it's related to good/bad summer weather but I dont feel it quite as much nowadays which is a shame.
blueblade
29-06-2016
Originally Posted by Marksw76:
“I missed the 'heatwave' of 2012, I think that might have been a south east thing only. All I remember is watching Olympic torch ceremonies in the pouring rain and floods. Nasty!



I kind of always hope for one of those but alas never seems to work out nowadays!

I tend to forget August as it's usually grim, maybe see what July brings, but not looking go so far!!”

It was mainly a South East thing to be fair. Nonetheless, August 2012 was a little warmer than average generally
Rich Tea.
09-07-2016
This thread has gone very quiet in July - boring month so far is it?

I ended up falling just short of both my monthly 1987 (147mm) and 2012 (143mm) rainfall records in June 2016, which ended up with a still very impressive 141mm. Infact the 3 wettest months I've recorded are the month of June now.

This poor summer seems set in its ways with no significant change having occurred by late June/early July.
blueblade
09-07-2016
Originally Posted by Rich Tea.:
“This thread has gone very quiet in July - boring month so far is it?

I ended up falling just short of both my monthly 1987 (147mm) and 2012 (143mm) rainfall records in June 2016, which ended up with a still very impressive 141mm. Infact the 3 wettest months I've recorded are the month of June now.

This poor summer seems set in its ways with no significant change having occurred by late June/early July.”

At least it's tending to be warm-ish at times. We should be grateful for small mercies.
1manonthebog
09-07-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“At least it's tending to be warm-ish at times. We should be grateful for small mercies.”

Yes the rain has gotten warmer here in Northern Ireland.

It has been a boring month thus far. I can't recall the last time we had a day of unbroken sunshine, it must have been early June, every day has been cloudy with the occasional glimpse of sunshine which doesn't last very long and at least one shower of rain every day. But as you say it has at least warmed up a bit in this past week or so with temps in high teens to low 20's.
blueblade
09-07-2016
Originally Posted by 1manonthebog:
“Yes the rain has gotten warmer here in Northern Ireland.

It has been a boring month thus far. I can't recall the last time we had a day of unbroken sunshine, it must have been early June, every day has been cloudy with the occasional glimpse of sunshine which doesn't last very long and at least one shower of rain every day. But as you say it has at least warmed up a bit in this past week or so with temps in high teens to low 20's.”

That's a very good point. To be honest, I can't recall any day, so far this Summer, when we've had a day of unbroken sun round here.
mushymanrob
09-07-2016
SUMMERS COMING!.....

next weekend only though, as a ridge looks like building across the country after a cool, fresh showery sun-weds.

we look like getting a warm blast for 2 days, but the mean upper flow is still westerly so little sign of a lengthy hot spell.
Launderman
09-07-2016
Does that mean it will be dank
blueblade
09-07-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“SUMMERS COMING!.....

next weekend only though, as a ridge looks like building across the country after a cool, fresh showery sun-weds.

we look like getting a warm blast for 2 days, but the mean upper flow is still westerly so little sign of a lengthy hot spell.”

Let's hope it does indeed co-incide vwith the weekend.
Rich Tea.
10-07-2016
I don't know about others but one thing I feel I am noticing more this summer than in recent ones is the humidity.

I've felt sticky, quite sweaty and generally uncomfortable on many days even when not exerting much or very little, even when temperatures have not been especially high.
d'@ve
10-07-2016
Originally Posted by Rich Tea.:
“This thread has gone very quiet in July - boring month so far is it?

I ended up falling just short of both my monthly 1987 (147mm) and 2012 (143mm) rainfall records in June 2016, which ended up with a still very impressive 141mm. Infact the 3 wettest months I've recorded are the month of June now.

This poor summer seems set in its ways with no significant change having occurred by late June/early July.”

What about my last 7 consecutive days of no measurable rainfall, sunny intervals or periods on all but one day, and a mean max. of 21.2 deg C? S. Hants has seen a marked change from the 124mm rain in June!
mushymanrob
10-07-2016
Originally Posted by Rich Tea.:
“I don't know about others but one thing I feel I am noticing more this summer than in recent ones is the humidity.

I've felt sticky, quite sweaty and generally uncomfortable on many days even when not exerting much or very little, even when temperatures have not been especially high.”

ive not noticed much tbh.... there have been some spells but nothing more then usual, in fact possibly less so because of the below average daytime max's.
blueblade
10-07-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“ive not noticed much tbh.... there have been some spells but nothing more then usual, in fact possibly less so because of the below average daytime max's.”

The air is currently warm both by day and night, but without being desperately uncomfortable. Last night the minimum round here was about 17 degrees, and the likely maximum today, about 21 - 22 degrees. Just pleasant, although I appreciate it might feel muggy and close to many.
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