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Weather Watching - Enthusiasts Thread |
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#851 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: derby
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looking promising for you in the southeast later next week, as pressures set to build over france, along with heat, so you buggers could get some of that later next week.
uncertain how far north itll get though - still. |
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#852 |
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Southern East Anglia
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Quote:
looking promising for you in the southeast later next week, as pressures set to build over france, along with heat, so you buggers could get some of that later next week.
uncertain how far north itll get though - still. As you say though, even if it does happen, there is no indication of just how far North and West it will get. |
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#853 |
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John Hammond said last night that the chances of a hot spell arising next week had gone from "small" to "very small", but he couldn't discount it altogether as it was still showing up on some computer models.
As you say though, even if it does happen, there is no indication of just how far North and West it will get. i think the operational runs have dropped an early pressure rise as the ridge expected by tues/weds now look like collapsing as another low tracks across our northwest next thursday, but pressure is set to rise again behind that so by next friday the southeast at least should get something hot. tbh its looking like a rerun of the last heatwave, which was expected firstly late week 2 of july, but a low formed and crossed the northwest delaying pressure build until week 3 july. so as things stand, we should be looking for heat at the end of next week after thursdays low departs. i reckon this will be our last hope of the summer proper (after mid august for me its autumn! lol) |
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#854 |
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tbh its looking like a rerun of the last heatwave, which was expected firstly late week 2 of july, but a low formed and crossed the northwest delaying pressure build until week 3 july. so as things stand, we should be looking for heat at the end of next week after thursdays low departs. i reckon this will be our last hope of the summer proper (after mid august for me its autumn! lol) |
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#855 |
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As I said earlier, looking for anything in particular 8 to 10 days away (or even less) is no more than guesswork or wishful thinking - except in a few particular circumstances of which now IMO isn't one. Spin your coins and take your pick because the one certainty is that the models will change a lot before then.
from that you can deduce the flow will be southwesterly, so its more likely to be muggy with cloud especially in the northwest, with rain too. warm in the southeast even hot.. the anomaly charts predicted the up coming cool spell with northwesterlies, again they were right. so it isnt guesswork, although the detail cannot be predicted, the general pattern can. |
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#856 |
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A heatwave is always possible as forecasts beyond 5 days are *still* unreliable. Heck you've already changed your tone only a day after your doom and gloom post - don't believe all that you see in the computer forecast models, they are usually no'but a rough guide beyond 5 days and sometimes less than that!
The temperature forecasts are normally inaccuate apart from the next 12 to 24 hours. |
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#857 |
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but it isnt.... thats the point... the noaa anomaly charts are very good at predicting the mean upper flow for upto 2 weeks ahead. they are predicting pressure to rise over france and southern europe with low pressure to our near northwest.
from that you can deduce the flow will be southwesterly, so its more likely to be muggy with cloud especially in the northwest, with rain too. warm in the southeast even hot.. the anomaly charts predicted the up coming cool spell with northwesterlies, again they were right. so it isnt guesswork, although the detail cannot be predicted, the general pattern can. Sometimes, of course, guesswork guesses right (even Piers Corbyn!) but even then it's often for the "wrong" part of the country... which doesn't help Joe Bloggs much at all. I tend to think of the huge number of times that e.g. winter model runs suggest an incursion of bitterly cold air... and the almost equal number of times it remains a week away or fails to cross the Channel or North Sea. Translating an approximate general pattern (approximate is what we tend to get) into a useful weather forecast for the man in the street, well that's what we can't do very well beyond 5 days, sometimes less. Not even the experts can do it reliably and I noticed that tonight's BBC 1 forecast "for the week ahead" pointedly stopped at Monday... which is only 4 or 5 days away. Two nights ago, Rob McElwee was talking about a "small chance of a shot of heat from the south" next week, which was a pointless comment if it was only a small chance. Last night he downgraded it to "a very small chance" and tonight, it wasn't even mentioned! |
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#858 |
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Predicting the general pattern does sometimes work beyond 5 days though it doesn't allow for reliable weather forecasts, for the man in the street, the devil is in the detail. Comments like "looking like a rerun of the last heatwave" at 7 to 10 days range are little more than guesswork - we can't usually be that precise at that range.
Sometimes, of course, guesswork guesses right (even Piers Corbyn!) but even then it's often for the "wrong" part of the country... which doesn't help Joe Bloggs much at all. I tend to think of the huge number of times that e.g. winter model runs suggest an incursion of bitterly cold air... and the almost equal number of times it remains a week away or fails to cross the Channel or North Sea. Translating an approximate general pattern (approximate is what we tend to get) into a useful weather forecast for the man in the street, well that's what we can't do very well beyond 5 days, sometimes less. Not even the experts can do it reliably and I noticed that tonight's BBC 1 forecast "for the week ahead" pointedly stopped at Monday... which is only 4 or 5 days away. Two nights ago, Rob McElwee was talking about a "small chance of a shot of heat from the south" next week, which was a pointless comment if it was only a small chance. Last night he downgraded it to "a very small chance" and tonight, it wasn't even mentioned! the anomaly charts still suggest the azores high displacing eastwards, france looks like it will bake later next week. this is not yet being shown, or is only begining to, in the opperational runs. the anomaly charts are pretty good. see...what i call a 'guess' is just that, an opinion based on nothing. what im suggesting is that the anomaly charts narrow down the options and point you in the right direction - an educated guess i suppose
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#859 |
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well i disagree, the general pattern can be predicted pretty accurately beyond 5 days. but i did say you cant put the detail on it, what you can do is predict what weather type is likely from the said pattern.
the anomaly charts still suggest the azores high displacing eastwards, france looks like it will bake later next week. this is not yet being shown, or is only begining to, in the opperational runs. the anomaly charts are pretty good. see...what i call a 'guess' is just that, an opinion based on nothing. what im suggesting is that the anomaly charts narrow down the options and point you in the right direction - an educated guess i suppose ![]()
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#860 |
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Well your "looking like a rerun of the last heatwave" seems to have gone west, it was not even mentioned on tonight's weather for the week ahead. That kind of statement - and even its mention by the BBC weather guy as "a slight possibility", is the kind of thing I get irritated about as it just makes more people think the Met Office are always wrong when, as often happens, it fails to materialise. It reminds me of that non-existent Barbecue Summer!
![]() but the current synoptic pattern we have was accurately predicted by the anomaly charts nearly 2 weeks ago, and they are consistent in predicting pressure rise over southern europe/france by later next week. they dont currently suggest we will get a settled hot spell, they might not, but with that much heat so close to our south a transitory heatwave is still possible. |
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#861 |
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true but dont forget the last heatwave was a 24-48 hour affair and thats all that has been on offer.
but the current synoptic pattern we have was accurately predicted by the anomaly charts nearly 2 weeks ago, and they are consistent in predicting pressure rise over southern europe/france by later next week. they dont currently suggest we will get a settled hot spell, they might not, but with that much heat so close to our south a transitory heatwave is still possible. |
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#862 |
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looking improbable now away from the southeast. pressure to our south later in the week just doesnt look like pushing far enough north now. so what looked like a hopeful evolution bringing settled heat isnt going to happen and the chances of transitory heat even look less likely now.
the anomaly charts dont build the pressure over france for long, and suggest a slackening whilst pressure rises through the mid atlantic. so around aug 10th, we are looking at low pressure to our northeast, high to our west and south, the uk under a cool, fresh, northerly sourced airflow. very much like todays weather. |
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#863 |
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Not exactly surprising though, is it. "slight chance" rapidly became "very slight chance" before disappearing altogether a few days ago (on the BBC1 Weather for a week ahead). That was my point in the first place, that beyond 5 days and sometimes less, weather forecasts by anyone including the professionals are unreliable, irrespective of the accuracy of forecast broad synoptic patterns.
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#864 |
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Not exactly surprising though, is it. "slight chance" rapidly became "very slight chance" before disappearing altogether a few days ago (on the BBC1 Weather for a week ahead). That was my point in the first place, that beyond 5 days and sometimes less, weather forecasts by anyone including the professionals are unreliable, irrespective of the accuracy of forecast broad synoptic patterns.
what the operational runs are now begining to show synoptically is exactly what the anomaly charts were suggesting. i dont know what the bbc said, i just watch the charts for myself, the synoptic pattern for later next week looks very much to be going as the anomaly charts suggested. |
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#865 |
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yeah... the operational runs are now supporting what the anomaly charts predicted several days ago.
the anomaly charts are suggesting for week 2 august low pressure to our northeast, high pressure to our west as a large ridge builds in the atlantic. i would add however, that whilst i believe these charts to be accurate out to 14 days, MY interpretation of what weather we are likely to get might well be inaccurate. i do tend to read it for my locale, and not as a countrywide thing, plus im not yet skilled enough at picking up on the detail, like systems, from viewing the mean upper flow. |
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#866 |
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The Greenland high on the BBC Weather forecast is looking glorious.
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#867 |
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MINI HEATWAVE back on for next weekend for southern areas , which is quite gratifying seeing as the anomaly charts have got the synoptic pattern spot on 10-12 days out.
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#868 |
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MINI HEATWAVE back on for next weekend for southern areas , which is quite gratifying seeing as the anomaly charts have got the synoptic pattern spot on 10-12 days out.
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#869 |
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Indeed, let's hope it materialises
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#870 |
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Meanwhile, back in the real weather world
the 19 mm of rainfall I recorded on August 1st (read at midnight) has already exceeded the total that fell in the whole of July (15.1mm). St. Catherines Point on the Isle of Wight recorded only 1.6 mm of rainfall in July! ![]() Don't you just love it, the weather always evens itself out in the end! |
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#871 |
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Don't you just love it, the weather always evens itself out in the end!
looking even hotter for sunday now as the +15c isotherm crosses most of england according to the ecm (12z) temps into the low 30's again, for one day only though?... operational runs now backing the anomaly charts, with atlantic ridging after the predicted displaced azores high for the weekend to our south retrogresses back. love the anomaly charts!
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#872 |
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MINI HEATWAVE back on for next weekend for southern areas , which is quite gratifying seeing as the anomaly charts have got the synoptic pattern spot on 10-12 days out.
Southern France?? |
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#873 |
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How far south are we talking? Plymouth / Weymouth / Jersey southwards?
Southern France?? |
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#874 |
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if that were true thered by no global warming...?....
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#875 |
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southern uk... but it might be cloudier midlands northwards.
I would say it was a certainty for the south and a certainty that it will be cold and chucking down anywhere north of Birmingham (as it has been most of the summer) |
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All times are GMT. The time now is 03:28.




the 19 mm of rainfall I recorded on August 1st (read at midnight) has already exceeded the total that fell in the whole of July (15.1mm). St. Catherines Point on the Isle of Wight recorded only 1.6 mm of rainfall in July!