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Weather Watching - Enthusiasts Thread
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d'@ve
04-08-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“i use the 'uppers' as a guide, if we get under the +10 isotherm then itll be very warm at least, hot in any sun.. it does look like cloud will spoil the 'heatwave' for most though, the southeast will fare best until tuesday.

anomaly charts though have called the general synoptic pattern spot on for upto 2 weeks in advance ”

But most folks prefer to know what the actual weather will do and to date, no mini-heatwave. Let's face it, 25 C is no heatwave, not even a mini one, not in England anyway.

Of course, if you keep on predicting it, it will eventually happen, but in weather forecasting, the timing is everything.
blueblade
04-08-2016
Originally Posted by d'@ve:
“But most folks prefer to know what the actual weather will do and to date, no mini-heatwave. Let's face it, 25 C is no heatwave, not even a mini one, not in England anyway.

Of course, if you keep on predicting it, it will eventually happen, but in weather forecasting, the timing is everything.”

Still very pleasant and comfortable though
d'@ve
05-08-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Still very pleasant and comfortable though ”

But so is 21 degrees C, today's maximum here. Neither is a mini heatwave.
Rich Tea.
05-08-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Now if you'd said November, I would have agreed with you

I think you're being a tad pessimistic, to be honest. It's still perfectly possible to have hot Sunny weather, well into September, and we're only at early August. Yes the Sun is that bit weaker in a few weeks, but it's still essentially Summer like.”

From my own perspective I consider it to be autumn only from October 1st.

Although in 1985 it felt like high summer on that date. In some parts of the UK on 1st October 1985 it was the hottest day of the year, with temperatures in my area just about hitting 30c. The last ten days of September that year were exceptionally good after a poor summer too.

Infact I'd forgotten something far more recent from just 5 years ago;

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/...d-temperatures
mushymanrob
05-08-2016
Originally Posted by d'@ve:
“But so is 21 degrees C, today's maximum here. Neither is a mini heatwave. ”

..... but its friday, the mini heatwave isnt due until tomorrow! and those in the southeast will get temps 25c+ .

mind you its true to say it wont be as widespread as i had suggested, that deep low tracking across northern areas sat night has prevented the northward progress of the hot air..

anomaly charts are spot on though, looking at this mornings synoptic chart and its pretty much bang on what the anomaly charts predicted 10 days or more ago.

interestingly, after predicting the atlantic ridge/scandinavian low for next week which is as good as certain.... this mornings charts suggest the ridge becoming closer to the uk by later next week/next weekend.

could this be the first step towards a lengthy settled anticyclonic spell which could dominate mid-late august?... its two weeks away so lets see if the anomaly charts firm up on this possible evolution , possible heatwave?..
mushymanrob
05-08-2016
'summer' to me though is about more then heat/sun... sunny hot spells from mid august onwards are like a posh meal with only the meat - no veg, no wine. no roasties.
blueblade
05-08-2016
Originally Posted by Rich Tea.:
“From my own perspective I consider it to be autumn only from October 1st.

Although in 1985 it felt like high summer on that date. In some parts of the UK on 1st October 1985 it was the hottest day of the year, with temperatures in my area just about hitting 30c. The last ten days of September that year were exceptionally good after a poor summer too.

Infact I'd forgotten something far more recent from just 5 years ago;

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/...d-temperatures”

I agree with you about October 1st.

Both 1985 and 2011 were highly memorable. If I recall correctly, pretty much all of September 1985, after the first few days, was warm, dry and Sunny, whereas in 2011, it was just the last week which was spectacular.

I'm looking forward to the September when we again get a 32C somewhere in England. Be the first time since 1949, climate change or no.
bri160356
05-08-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“..... but its friday, the mini heatwave isnt due until tomorrow! and those in the southeast will get temps 25c+ .

mind you its true to say it wont be as widespread as i had suggested, that deep low tracking across northern areas sat night has prevented the northward progress of the hot air..

anomaly charts are spot on though, looking at this mornings synoptic chart and its pretty much bang on what the anomaly charts predicted 10 days or more ago.

interestingly, after predicting the atlantic ridge/scandinavian low for next week which is as good as certain.... this mornings charts suggest the ridge becoming closer to the uk by later next week/next weekend.

could this be the first step towards a lengthy settled anticyclonic spell which could dominate mid-late august?... its two weeks away so lets see if the anomaly charts firm up on this possible evolution , possible heatwave?..”

1021mb, light NW breeze here in Cheshire; 17c at 10.00am but the NW breeze is taking the edge off it a tad; part sun, part cloud. No signs of rain,… so the mowers will be out later.
Rich Tea.
06-08-2016
We are due an unusually intense low pressure storm to come across the UK this weekend and I was wondering what chance it will end up a named storm? We haven't had a named storm since way back at Easter in late March. The next one is due to be Lawrence, although I am also wondering if and when they reset the names back to the letter A.
mushymanrob
06-08-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“.

interestingly, after predicting the atlantic ridge/scandinavian low for next week which is as good as certain.... this mornings charts suggest the ridge becoming closer to the uk by later next week/next weekend.

could this be the first step towards a lengthy settled anticyclonic spell which could dominate mid-late august?... its two weeks away so lets see if the anomaly charts firm up on this possible evolution , possible heatwave?..”

YES !

anomaly charts have shifted the atlantic ridge later next week and now follow through the evolution of a LONG SETTLED SUNNY WARM/HOT spell

this starts building on thursday, and we are now looking at a lengthy settled spell as high pressure takes residence over the uk in about a weeks time.

this high looks like dominating our weather for a week or longer. so a very nice warm dry sunny spell is likely for the uk.

will it get HOT?.. (25c+ ) ... likely, very likely but it might take a while for the heat to build and it will depend upon the exact position and orientation of the high. we need it to be just to our east to suck up hot continental air.

but at long last, strong indications would suggest a long settled spell with a lot of dry, sunny/bright warm, very warm, hot weather starting late next week
bri160356
06-08-2016
Originally Posted by Rich Tea.:
“We are due an unusually intense low pressure storm to come across the UK this weekend and I was wondering what chance it will end up a named storm? We haven't had a named storm since way back at Easter in late March. The next one is due to be Lawrence, although I am also wondering if and when they reset the names back to the letter A.”

The Met Office work through the 21 UK names alphabetically then start the cycle again; Abigail, Barney, Clodagh, Desmond, Eva, Frank, Gertrude, Henry, Imogen, Jake, Katie, Lawrence, Mary, Nigel, Oral, Phil, Rhonda, Steve, Tegan, Vernon, Wendy.

If there are more than 21 potential severe weather events (very unlikely) in any one year they would not use the same name twice.

Any storm/hurricane that’s already been named on the other side of the pond will retain its original name.

To qualify for a UK ‘name’ the storm/weather event must reach the ‘Yellow’ weather warning criteria i.e. potentially severe weather in the coming days;…I don’t know how the Met Office categorise the trigger point for ‘severe’ weather.

Yellow warning = Be Aware
Amber Warning = Be Prepared
Red Warning = Take Action
blueblade
06-08-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“YES !

anomaly charts have shifted the atlantic ridge later next week and now follow through the evolution of a LONG SETTLED SUNNY WARM/HOT spell

this starts building on thursday, and we are now looking at a lengthy settled spell as high pressure takes residence over the uk in about a weeks time.

this high looks like dominating our weather for a week or longer. so a very nice warm dry sunny spell is likely for the uk.

will it get HOT?.. (25c+ ) ... likely, very likely but it might take a while for the heat to build and it will depend upon the exact position and orientation of the high. we need it to be just to our east to suck up hot continental air.

but at long last, strong indications would suggest a long settled spell with a lot of dry, sunny/bright warm, very warm, hot weather starting late next week ”

Indeed - great news !!!
bri160356
06-08-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Indeed - great news !!! ”

‘mushymanrob’ should apply for a job with the BBC;

….with forecasts like that he’d be an instant hit!
blueblade
06-08-2016
Originally Posted by bri160356:
“‘mushymanrob’ should apply for a job with the BBC;

….with forecasts like that he’d be an instant hit! ”

I checked out what he said though, and it appears largely correct. Indeed, here is ther latest Met Office forecast:-

Quote:
“UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Aug 2016 to Friday 19 Aug 2016:
Cool conditions with sunshine and scattered showers are expected on Wednesday 10th, with the most frequent showers likely in the east where it may also be windy. The west should be drier overall.Then on Thursday 11th most places are likely to become dry and bright. Thereafter the current indications are that there will be a change to warmer conditions, with a north south split probably becoming established. The weather in northern areas is likely to be more changeable and occasionally breezy with a mixture of bands of cloud and rain interspersed by drier, brighter spells. On the other hand southern parts should have more in the way of dry, bright weather, although even here weak weather fronts may bring cloud and a little patchy rain at times.

Updated at: 1220 on Fri 5 Aug 2016”

So it does appear that decent weather is on the cards at least for the Southern half of the UK.
1manonthebog
06-08-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“I checked out what he said though, and it appears largely correct. Indeed, here is ther latest Met Office forecast:-



So it does appear that decent weather is on the cards at least for the Southern half of the UK.”

I got a bit excited and then got the usual middle finger of "Southern Half" Should of know really as when the north is in for a warm spell you never hear about it, not that it happens very often.
blueblade
06-08-2016
Originally Posted by 1manonthebog:
“I got a bit excited and then got the usual middle finger of "Southern Half" Should of know really as when the north is in for a warm spell you never hear about it, not that it happens very often.”

Often the way it pans out.

Just been out in the garden for a time, and whilst there are some fair weather cumulus drifting about, unlike recent slightly hazy days, the sky is otherwise gin clear. Therefore UV levels will be high. Don't sit in the direct Sun for prolonged periods.
d'@ve
06-08-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“I checked out what he said though, and it appears largely correct.”

Let's see what he actually said then - back when I first took issue with him about weather forecasts beyond 5 days:

July 24th
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“low pressure is set to become dominant again as the azores high draws back thus relinquishing its influence on the uk. a strong high over newfoundland/greenland diverts the jet stream on a more southerly track - right across the uk.

so after a pleasant summery week, we are set to return to the preceeding dull rather wet conditions we endured since the end of the first week in june.”

July 25th
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“might get another mini heatwave into august.... looks like pressure might build over france and with that there and the uk under a mean upper flow from the southwest a transitory heatwave is possible.”

Two totally different predictions on successive days, the 2nd being for "another mini heatwave into August". Well "into August" was last weekend and it didn't happen. Note the 'another', implying it would be similar to the mid July weather which widely exceeded 28 degrees C for several days.

Well it could yet happen of course but repeatedly predicting the same thing week after week usually does eventually come right, doesn't it... but that isn't making a "largely correct" forecast. In weather forecasting, timing is everything.
blueblade
06-08-2016
Originally Posted by d'@ve:
“Let's see what he actually said then - back when I first took issue with him about weather forecasts beyond 5 days:

July 24th


July 25th


Two totally different predictions on successive days, the 2nd being for "another mini heatwave into August". Well "into August" was last weekend and it didn't happen. Note the 'another', implying it would be similar to the mid July weather which widely exceeded 28 degrees C for several days.

Well it could yet happen of course but repeatedly predicting the same thing week after week usually does eventually come right, doesn't it... but that isn't making a "largely correct" forecast. In weather forecasting, timing is everything.”

I was referring to what he said at 8:09am today, not over a week ago.

As far as I'm concerned it's more probable than not, that he's correct on this occasion, as verified by the Met Office.
blueblade
06-08-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“MINI HEATWAVE back on for next weekend for southern areas , which is quite gratifying seeing as the anomaly charts have got the synoptic pattern spot on 10-12 days out.”

Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Indeed, let's hope it materialises ”

I think it has. Gorgeous classical Summers day today, strong Sun and widely 24 to 26 degrees at 3pm. Likely to get a bit higher. Currently 25.0 degrees, here in Chelmsford.

Yes, mini heatwave by any other name
1manonthebog
07-08-2016
Extremely muggy last night. Coming home at midnight the temp was 18c but very blustery. The wind seems to have settled a bit now though.
mushymanrob
07-08-2016
Originally Posted by bri160356:
“‘mushymanrob’ should apply for a job with the BBC;

….with forecasts like that he’d be an instant hit! ”

lol.. im doing what hundreds are doing...looking at the predictive charts and making predictions for upto 2 weeks ahead. i use the noaa anomaly charts because the work of a very experienced weatherman on netweather (john holmes) had studdied these charts and he found them to be very accurate in predicting the upper air pattern for 6-14 days ahead. but they are only 'very accurate' when they are consistent (see my reply to d@ve below).

the bbc have these tools and many more, but are scared to make long term predictions because they might be wrong. im not scared of being wrong, im just me not a pro whos reputation relies on it.

Originally Posted by blueblade:
“I checked out what he said though, and it appears largely correct. Indeed, here is ther latest Met Office forecast:-



So it does appear that decent weather is on the cards at least for the Southern half of the UK.”

yep, thats whats happening in that timeframe... but beyond that HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE UK .... and if or where can dodge the cloud it WILL become HOT in the sun.

at worst itll be cloudy and muggy but dry, at best itll be HOT dry and sunny, i expect a mix of these conditions and who gets what will depend upon the exact position and orientation of the high.

in short..... we are likely to get the best august weather for many years, 13 to be exact!

Originally Posted by d'@ve:
“Let's see what he actually said then - back when I first took issue with him about weather forecasts beyond 5 days:

July 24th


July 25th


Two totally different predictions on successive days, the 2nd being for "another mini heatwave into August". Well "into August" was last weekend and it didn't happen. Note the 'another', implying it would be similar to the mid July weather which widely exceeded 28 degrees C for several days.

Well it could yet happen of course but repeatedly predicting the same thing week after week usually does eventually come right, doesn't it... but that isn't making a "largely correct" forecast. In weather forecasting, timing is everything.”

yep.... what i did there was wrong.... thats because i broke the golden rule of using the anomaly charts and that is - they are only accurate when they are consistent over several runs.

when i said itll be wet, that was wrong because i based that on 1 anomaly chart run... i jumped the gun and got it spectacularly wrong.

but dont take 1 error ... i used the amonaly charts to suggest there would be a 'mini heatwave' (at least for the south) this weekend.... and we have more or less and more importantly the general synoptic pattern the anomaly charts said would happen - HAS.

i also said, using the anomaly charts, that after this weekend pressure would rise to our west, low to our northeast leaving us in a fresh, cool, northerly sourced airflow... THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENING!.

now the anomaly charts are consistently predicting the high to our west will drift over the uk later this week, so by next weekend and into the following week we will be dominated by a high pressure sitting right on top or very near, the uk.

im proving that the anomaly charts CAN with great accuracy predict, when consistent, the general upper air pattern for upto 2 weeks ahead. of course putting the detail on whats likely isnt as straight foreward and local knowledge of what these conditions usually bring is needed to get a better idea.

Originally Posted by blueblade:
“I think it has. Gorgeous classical Summers day today, strong Sun and widely 24 to 26 degrees at 3pm. Likely to get a bit higher. Currently 25.0 degrees, here in Chelmsford.

Yes, mini heatwave by any other name ”

cheers , yep im happy with the anomaly charts have predicted.

link to the charts
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...0day/500mb.php

click the 8-14 day link on the left to see the likely upper air pattern for that timescale.
blueblade
07-08-2016
Originally Posted by 1manonthebog:
“Extremely muggy last night. Coming home at midnight the temp was 18c but very blustery. The wind seems to have settled a bit now though.”

I recorded an overnight low of 17.3C, so yes, very muggy. Some places never got lower than 19 degrees.

Breezy and a bit cloudy here this morning, albeit quite pleasant overall.
blueblade
07-08-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“

cheers , yep im happy with the anomaly charts have predicted.

link to the charts
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...0day/500mb.php

click the 8-14 day link on the left to see the likely upper air pattern for that timescale.”

Thanks for the useful link
mushymanrob
07-08-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Thanks for the useful link ”

im sure youll understand them soon enough... its the green lines that are the important ones.
Ads
07-08-2016
Perfect English summers day for many of us yesterday - I think mid 20s and sunny is as good as it gets for me in the UK, as its sunny, but not so hot that using public transport and going into buildings with lack of aircon becomes horrible.
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