Originally Posted by
bri160356:
“‘mushymanrob’ should apply for a job with the BBC;
….with forecasts like that he’d be an instant hit!
”
lol.. im doing what hundreds are doing...looking at the predictive charts and making predictions for upto 2 weeks ahead. i use the noaa anomaly charts because the work of a very experienced weatherman on netweather (john holmes) had studdied these charts and he found them to be very accurate in predicting the upper air pattern for 6-14 days ahead. but they are only 'very accurate' when they are consistent (see my reply to d@ve below).
the bbc have these tools and many more, but are scared to make long term predictions because they might be wrong. im not scared of being wrong, im just me not a pro whos reputation relies on it.
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“I checked out what he said though, and it appears largely correct. Indeed, here is ther latest Met Office forecast:-
So it does appear that decent weather is on the cards at least for the Southern half of the UK.”
yep, thats whats happening in that timeframe... but beyond that HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE UK .... and if or where can dodge the cloud it WILL become HOT in the sun.
at worst itll be cloudy and muggy but dry, at best itll be HOT dry and sunny, i expect a mix of these conditions and who gets what will depend upon the exact position and orientation of the high.
in short..... we are likely to get the best august weather for many years, 13 to be exact!
Originally Posted by d'@ve:
“Let's see what he actually said then - back when I first took issue with him about weather forecasts beyond 5 days:
July 24th
July 25th
Two totally different predictions on successive days, the 2nd being for "another mini heatwave into August". Well "into August" was last weekend and it didn't happen. Note the 'another', implying it would be similar to the mid July weather which widely exceeded 28 degrees C for several days.
Well it could yet happen of course but repeatedly predicting the same thing week after week usually does eventually come right, doesn't it... but that isn't making a "largely correct" forecast. In weather forecasting, timing is everything.”
yep.... what i did there was wrong.... thats because i broke the golden rule of using the anomaly charts and that is - they are only accurate when they are consistent over several runs.
when i said itll be wet, that was wrong because i based that on 1 anomaly chart run... i jumped the gun and got it spectacularly wrong.
but dont take 1 error ... i used the amonaly charts to suggest there would be a 'mini heatwave' (at least for the south) this weekend.... and we have more or less and more importantly the general synoptic pattern the anomaly charts said would happen - HAS.
i also said, using the anomaly charts, that after this weekend pressure would rise to our west, low to our northeast leaving us in a fresh, cool, northerly sourced airflow... THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENING!.
now the anomaly charts are consistently predicting the high to our west will drift over the uk later this week, so by next weekend and into the following week we will be dominated by a high pressure sitting right on top or very near, the uk.
im proving that the anomaly charts CAN with great accuracy predict, when consistent, the general upper air pattern for upto 2 weeks ahead. of course putting the detail on whats likely isnt as straight foreward and local knowledge of what these conditions usually bring is needed to get a better idea.
Originally Posted by
blueblade:
“I think it has. Gorgeous classical Summers day today, strong Sun and widely 24 to 26 degrees at 3pm. Likely to get a bit higher. Currently 25.0 degrees, here in Chelmsford.
Yes, mini heatwave by any other name
”
cheers

, yep im happy with the anomaly charts have predicted.
link to the charts
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...0day/500mb.php
click the 8-14 day link on the left to see the likely upper air pattern for that timescale.