Decent weather is not a mini heatwave, it's normal July-August weather for the south east where the mean maximum is 23 degrees C and more sunshine than cloud or rain.


Nothing is verified until it's happened and anyway, the BBC Met Office forecasters were saying a week ago that things would stay mostly settled and fairly warm down in the south into mid August.


It was supposed to be "another mini heatwave". Have we already forgotten that what we had last month in the south east was widespread temperatures exceeding 28 deg C for several days? Heathrow for example had 31.4, 33.2, 29.4 on consecutive days Now that's a proper mini heatwave (albeit less than a full heatwave as it was less then 5 days of 28C or more, in the south east).


I'm sorry but you are just ramping again. There was no 'another mini heatwave into August" and what happens later this month is just another medium term forecast, which should be taken with the usual caveats that beyond 5 days, it should not be relied on. The Met Office current forecast for the period is pretty well what you'd expect from the normal August climatology (i.e. mostly within +/- 3 degrees C of the mean maximum).

If beyond 5 days you'd stick to the general patterns and not get too specific with comments like "mini heatwave" or "best for 13 years" I wouldn't grumble, but you don't.

Thanks. Another super day today - the last of the two day mini heatwave. Enjoying it.

Me too - beautiful day.

There's a proper storm right now in NI.

Agreed, blowing a gale and lashing down.

The weather has a real mid October autumnal feel to it here, wet and windy. I pity anyone going to watch the Edinburgh tattoo this evening.

LOL they aren't blessed in the good weather department on the whole are they

Really nice day here in the West Midlands, sun shining but quite a strong wind and noticed when I getting my washing in and playing with the dog, when the sun went in it went quite chilly.

We've had nice weather since the Test Match started, so if they could stay another few days, it would be nice!

Nice and warm, agreed. Mini heatwave? 23.5 here S Hants, 27.8 at Weybourne... so near (albeit a week late) yet so far!

They can be, but in the type of situation we have prevailing this Summer, it's likely that they will end up with a predominantly worse deal than further South and East, where the influence of the Azores high, is strongest. Pressure will be lowest in the North West as depressions are diverted that way. The current low is an unusually deep one for early August, hence the strong winds.

115 mph gust on Cairngorm, 100 mph at Cairnwell!

August records for the sites, I heard.

You mean the Daily Express surely?

Maybe not the Daily Express after all then.

Warmest night of the year at my location early on Sunday. The overnight minimum was 18.1c.

Beautiful day here in East Yorkshire. 25 degrees and virtually wall-to-wall sunshine with a pleasant cooling breeze on the coast.

Turned ugly very quickly though - as I type the rain is lashing down and the trees are bending horizontal.

August's a funny month. I always associate it with pretty dismal weather and Sept/Oct with dry, warm, settled weather.

I'm always surprised to get a proper summer's day in August nowadays.

well you can bicker over what you think the definition of a 'mini heatwave' is if you want. i qualified what i mean by it.

ramping or speculation?... maybe it didnt turn out to be as big an event as the models had earlier suggested, but even within YOUR 5 day timeframe the ecm and gfs had suggested we would get high temps for 3 days with the 15c isotherm 'upper' over the southern uk.

the point is that the noaa anomaly charts when consistent over several runs do get the general pattern right c 80% of the time. they accurately predicted the synoptic pattern that has lead to this pleasant very warm/hot weekend.

they predicted many days ago that this high to our south would collapse and a large mid atlantic ridge would build with low pressure over scandinavia giving us a cool northwesterly.

they now suggest that from friday for 8 days, possibly longer, that same high will drift in over the uk and gradually drift to our near east. high pressure in august = heat. we ARE in for some very warm/hot weather and 'heatwave' is very likely (by the official definition). edit.... even carole kirkwood has just said itll get hot later in the week!

now im saying we will be warm/hot, sunny and dry, a typical anticyclonic summer spell, in OVER 5 days time, because i believe the noaa anomaly charts ARE as accurate as was identified by a very experienced meteorologist on netweather.

and saying itll be the 'best for 13 years' is no exageration! we havnt had a long decent dry warm/hot sunny august since 2003... (ok some locations in the southeast might disagree - but im talking generally for the bulk of the country).

now that really isnt a hard target to beat.... augusts have been dire, even when they might be warm, theyve been wet or/and overcast. we are long overdue for a predominantly dry, sunny, warm august and when this forthcoming spell arrives, records will show this to be true.

now you can disagree or argue your 5 day rule as much as you want to... ive proven that predicting the general synoptic pattern CAN be accurately achieved and from that seasoned weather watches can put reasonably local interpretations on whats likely.

so its not a guess, as you suggested anything beyond 5 days is... its a prediction made on what pretty accurate data for the 6-14 day period is telling us.

Well, Peter Gibbs said earlier that by the weekend and into next week, high pressure will be initially drifting over us, and then to the East, allowing Sunny and very warm or hot conditions to spread in from the South. Thereafter, a relatively short spell of hot and humid weather seems likely until the inevitable thundery breakdown mid week. Although I'd like to share Rob's optimism that it will last longer, I don't at this stage.

I well know that in certain conditions, primarily when pressure is consistently expected to be high over parts of the UK, reasonably accurate weather types can be forecast beyond even a week, and if you stuck to that I wouldn't be grumbling. But weather forecasts for specific places or regions mean getting the timing right to the day, and *that* is what most often goes wrong (e.g. a sunny weekend turning into a rainy weekend and sunny weekdays).

Incidentally, I also check out the accuracy of the BBC forecasts for the week ahead (I record them) and there, too, they struggle with (especially) timing for forecast events beyond 4 or 5 days, though sometimes it comes off well. And if next week's mini-heatwave comes off, I will raise my hat to Tomasz Schafernaker who, exactly one week ago at this hour, stuck his neck out and I quote:

"Now we are relatively confident that from around the middle of August, things are going to be settling down and we'll be seeing some warmer weather coming in from the south as high pressure builds, so it does look like summer's certainly not over yet". His chart showed expected southerly winds originating in southern France or Spain.

That, if it comes off, is good forecasting at that range (10-14 days) but he was careful not to be too specific as to timing or temperatures and that's how I prefer to see it done. Now, at less than a week's range, they are starting to firm up on "hot" so maybe (if the GFS and ECMWF are to be believed) we will get your mini-heatwave after all -- in the end!

yeah.... the latest anomaly charts HAVE shifted from prolonging the high over the uk, it WILL still happen, but it wont ba as settled for as long as the high shifts eastward faster then previously expected.

we WILL still get a HEATWAVE with temps into the low 30's early next week, before a possible breakdown - but even beyond a possible breakdown midweek the pressures still on the high side and theres no current sign of low pressure dominance. so as the anomaly charts suggested days ago, the mid atlantic ridge will build in later this week, it will warm up and become HOT by monday - weds.


i wouldnt be so specific though, i use the anomaly charts to get the main flavour of weather we are likely to get. they are very accurate especially the 6-10 day mean. the 8-14 day mean chart is of course less accurate


hes done well because that now looks highly likely.


but are you not interested on whats on the horizon? i think many are especially when theres a likelyhood of a prefered weather type. and the anomaly charts are great at picking up on the likely pattern. of course detail cannot be decided that far out, but they did pick out the weekends warmth long ahead, and the next hot spell along with this cool spell.

of course if you dont want to hear what might be ahead beyond 5 days, ignore my posts!

Carol Kirkwood on today's Breakfast saying this time next week some places could be in the 30's but question marks over how long it will last. She predicted it would break down into thunderstorms by the middle of next week.

Why are weather forecasters here so obsessed with wanting heat and heatwaves in the UK?

Apart from the fact that high temperatures can be very bad for your health. For instance the 2003 heatwave caused 2,000 deaths alone in the UK, 15,000 in France and Europe wide- the number has been put at 70,000 !!!

thats now pretty much in line with what the predictive charts are saying this morning.

these 'flash' heatwaves seem to be becoming popular, there was one early july last year, there was one here 3 weeks ago, now theres another early next week.

this appears to be caused because the high pressure needed for sun/heat doesnt appear to be able to sit for long over the uk, but builds then shifts eastwards allowing a blast of continental heat before departing.

i wonder if the mobility has something to do with global warming, ie more energy in the atmosphere driving the upper air flow that prevents building and settling highs?


heatwaves dont kill people that are fit and healthy, they only bring on the inevitable sooner. those people would have died anyway.

its summer - we want heat! i love heat, working in it, relaxing in it, sitting out on a warm night and not being clad in many clothes. we dont get much heat in the uk, often under 15 days of 25c+ , so theres 350 days of cooler/colder weather to enjoy/endure.

I'll be keeping my eye very closely on the overnight minimums again, as we came reasonably close to equalling the previous record a few weeks ago, during the last short lived heatwave (not mini heatwave lol, they're something else altogether).


Agreed - I can honestly say I've never once felt ill with the heat. Sweaty yes, very sweaty in fact, but never ill. Quite the reverse in fact. I always feel at my best during hot weather.

i note the daily mail are now saying 'the hottest august for 13 years'... lol... thats just about the only headline with much truth in it though.

i note the express and mirror are saying a 2 week heatwave.... well they are wrong.... or are they?

the much championed (by me) anomaly charts are consistent with shifting the expected high, up to scandinavia where it intensifies.

this would suggest that for the next 2 weeks or so that high will influence our weather. so after a possible breakdown midweek, there should be a lot of dry, sunny/bright warm/hot weather around. possibly quite cloudy though. with high pressure to our northeast and the mean upper flow south/southwest, there is scope for further plumes/heat. so after the heatwave early next week, a possible breakdown midweek, things should return to be a very pleasant pattern with a chance of another short heatwave.

...that'll do nicely.