great outlook, with doubt about the 'thundery breakdown' midweek.

the anomaly charts arent currently easy to read, or im not experienced enough... but theres going to be high pressure over scandinavia, a large one at that by midweek.. (this weekends uk high).

this suggests to me an easterly component is likely, and northwestern scotland MIGHT be in for a local heatwave - but that depends upon how far west the scandinavian high reaches.

but theres a lot of mainly dry, warm/hot, sunny/bright very pleasant summer weather on offer.

1020mb, 15c and quite breezy ,..westerly;…part sun, part cloud here in Cheshire at the moment and no rain since yesterday afternoon.

One thing that’s very noticeable is the speed of the high cloud,…it’s motoring eastwards at some pace!

glorious day here in derby, strong breeze though which will help peg back the temps and give some relief from what would be a hot rather humid day.

Yep, gorgeous day today, and again, very strong Sun, so watch those UV levels, people. Don't sit in it too long.

I'm wondering if next week's forecasted thundery breakdown after the expected heat of Monday and especially Tuesday, will be a messy and erratic one, with a continuation of warm air from the South, intermingled with higher humidity and continuing thunderstorms.

Quite possible that approaching troughs will stall and become slow moving/quasi stationary, as they approach from the West.

yes.... exactly, this much vaunted 'breakdown' might be little more then a warm, muggy, humid, stalemate with patchy showery rain, thundery in places, but a lot of dry warm sunny/bright weather.

i do think the humidity will be noticeable though.

but even after the early week heat, the outlook possibly for the rest of the meteorological summer (end of august) is pretty good, looking like higher pressure in control rather then lower pressure so largely dry, sunny/bright (bright as in overcast but thin high cloud) warm possibly hot at times.

Tbe Faversham temperature record that year really was a freak one.

It's amazing our Met office don't ever issue at heat warning at all when temperatures in places in the UK hit 31 C plus, yet the Canadian, Russian and USA Met offices e.g to name but 3 at the same time automatically do if temperatures there are the same.

Who on earth in the right mind wants to see temperatures such as 37 degrees C or more anywhere in the UK? That 38.5 degrees C must have been unbearable in Faversham that very day.

ME! ..... why not?... but i like heat.

support is growing now for something warm/hot in the northwest as the operational runs are now suggesting high pressure holding on longer over scotland - so the anomaly charts suggesting an easterly component look like being correct, yet again. not that itll last long, but as the midweek breakdown has been all but cancelled away from the southwest, this unsettled weather was supposed to track northwards across the northwest. thats what the gfs and ecm suggested whilst the anomaly charts said no.

the lastest gfs and ecm both have the uk under a large low just to our north in around 8-10 days time. that would produce cool unsettled showery weather with longer spells of rain for some.

the anomaly charts currently dont agree and have been consistent in keeping the mean upper trough out to our west, with high pressure over the continent from spain round to scandinavia - with a lower area of high to our east.

that puts the uk under a southwesterly upper flow, so mainly dry warm sunny in the southeast, cooler more unsettled/wetter in the northwest .

itll be interesting to see which model suits prove correct in the run up to bank holiday.

We need some rain in the East Anglia - garden is wilting

Durham

16, overcast, grey, miserable, cold, fine drizzle of and on

more like autum

and did I say it was bloody miserable

summer WHAT SUMMER

sorry rant over

Overall, here in the far southwest, I'd say it's been a good summer this year compared to last.

End of May had a nice spell, first couple of weeks of June likewise. Had that really hot spell last week of July and August is looking warm and sunny. Plus there were other sunny afternoons sprinkled inbetween the cloudy spells.

Last year was cool and overcast almost all the way through June, July and August in comparison.

ok.... 'heatwave' predictions look like being wrong. dunno why, we are getting high 'upper' air temps which should transfer to surface temps of 25c+ ... tellymen say temps below 25c generally,

not sure why this is..... but we ARE getting at least 3 days of sun and warmth.

I wondered that too. Not that it will make a massive difference either way. Weather will still be pretty good.

38 degrees is above the normal body temp of 37 degrees . It is bad for circulation etc as the body is over heated and trying to compensate . The Greeks would know that and stay in the shade when possible . Its quite uncomfortable

the humidity is making it feel hot though, and i did say i thought it would be humid, so im wrong by a couple of degrees...lol..

or the tellymen have underestimated the heat?..

maybe theres an inversion? the warmer uppers are riding up over cooler surface? but that would produce cloud... or maybe its getting too late for home grown heat and we need a deeper southerly draw?



but keeping cool in heat is the fun part,.. the relief...

The reason is that the surface air is being advected primarily from the SE and E instead of the hotter southern Europe. It will be warm or very warm tomorrow and similar or perhaps slightly warmer on Wednesday before the anticipated breakdown from the west arrives.

Whatever the reasons, it's a dodgy business predicting extreme or unusual weather of any kind more than 4 or 5 days in advance... sometimes less that that! But we've already done that particular discussion!

but we have the high 'uppers' dont we? 10c + , so temps in any sun should easily reach 25c +...


with any precision, true, even the ops were suggesting a hotter spell only a few days ago (under 5) .

but the anomaly charts have got it basically right yet again, pressure has built over us, and it will shift to our northeast. so we know we will not be getting fresh, cool, wet, atlantic air which is our default. we did know it will be dry and settled, and at least warm if not hot.

this is what i posted 9 days ago, got to say, it was pretty much spot on!

now im not trying to point score, or big myself up.... this is what the anomaly charts suggested would happen, im merely reading them, im not skilled enough to go into much possible detail. its evidence of the accuracy of these charts for the 6-14 days timeframe.

YES

24c here now, 3c warmer then they predicted and only 1c off 'my' definition of heat (25c)

reckon we might just get it!

25-26C max. is warm to very warm, depending on location, it's a mere 2-3C above average for much of the SE of England. Widespread 27+ is hot, IMO but if you want to make up your own definitions, you can obviously prove whatever you like.


Which just reinforces my point.

........... and post 969 reinforces mine!

I don't really class 27 as very hot tbh. It's only 81f. Hottest I can remember was 2003, a Sunday, when it was boiling outside, high 90's I believe. Our Tesco completely sold out of bottled water, all bottled and canned drinks and beers and it's not happened since so far. Can't see it getting like that this summer despite one paper last week saying it will.

thats unfair, as im constant about 25c being 'hot' regardless of locational average, average can be 'hot' you know! i mean whats the average in death valley? 36c? 40c? if it was only 33c would that be 'cool'?

But we are posting in a Weather Enthusiasts thread, I think we should at least stick to the definitions as used in broadcast official forecasts, which are mostly relative to average conditions, otherwise we end up talking at cross purposes.

I mean to say, if I go out into my back garden right now and sit in the sun, it feels hot (grass temperature maximum today was 44 deg C) and I won't stay there for long... but the maximum air temperature this afternoon was 23.3 deg C, one degree above average. It's really just another average day down here but very pleasant with it, just as I like it.