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Old 27-12-2015, 19:48
Big brother tv
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Well the models are starting to line up now for a fair chance of at least a short spell of proper winter cold from the east next week, with GEM, GFS and ECMWF all showing a cold outbreak from the Siberian High getting as far as at least the North Sea and Low Countries, with Eastern England at most risk.

Anyway, summat's up, and we should see an end to the incessant boring and squelchy westerlies at least temporarily - though any snow may be on a knife edge. If it comes off, the Canadian GEM saw it first, 5 days ago (though the ECMWF doesn't run far enough ahead to have seen it back then).
They'll probably have a coronary considering they had scarves on when it was 8c. Then when I was coming in from Stansted and flying over the snow the other week the woman behind me couldn't believe her eyes, it was like she'd never seen snow.
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Old 27-12-2015, 21:22
Terry N
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61 mph gusts forecast on Tuesday night in NI. Not looking forward to that.
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Old 28-12-2015, 14:35
d'@ve
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Starting to look like if the cold from the east reaches us next week, which it may, it will soon get pushed back east again by the incessant and very annoying south westerlies who may just be taking a short breather.
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Old 28-12-2015, 14:46
Rich Tea.
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A couple of days respite from rain and wind, although still very mild. Then a bit more interesting as we get to mid week, stormy again, and New Years' Eve. It does now seem, as you say Dave, that something notably colder is being flagged up as coming along into next week to begin January 2016 but considering how mild its been in December 2015 the "cold" will likely be just the normal expected conditions for early January. We wait to see.

I'd sure love to know just what the December rainfall totals are going to end up as in Cumbria. They must be astonishingly high, considering the new UK 24 hour record stands at an astounding 341.4mm at Honister, Cumbria.
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Old 28-12-2015, 15:13
TeeGee
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I'd sure love to know just what the December rainfall totals are going to end up as in Cumbria. They must be astonishingly high, considering the new UK 24 hour record stands at an astounding 341.4mm at Honister, Cumbria.
Shap statistics HERE.
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Old 28-12-2015, 15:58
LakieLady
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Starting to look like if the cold from the east reaches us next week, which it may, it will soon get pushed back east again by the incessant and very annoying south westerlies who may just be taking a short breather.
The wind has changed direction here (Sussex). We now have a south easterly, and it feels much colder.
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Old 28-12-2015, 16:04
kiviraat
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Weather here has been terrible all day. I keep an eye on a couple of the local weather stations at this time of year. Strongest gusts so far have been in the region of 64mph and the 10 min average is 47mph, but even the spray is causing problems. Churchill Barriers have been closed (this is Barrier 2 earlier today) and ferry services are being cancelled or delayed.

Factoring in wind chill, it's still incredibly mild. I'm still wearing a lot of summer clothes - only difference is I've added waterproof jacket and boots.
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Old 28-12-2015, 16:23
Terry N
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Storm Frank is shaping up to be the worst storm of winter so far.
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Old 28-12-2015, 16:51
blueblade
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Storm Frank is shaping up to be the worst storm of winter so far.
As far as I can tell, the worst bit is heading to the North West between Scotland and Iceland. Although it will be stormy everywhere.
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Old 28-12-2015, 16:57
RobinOfLoxley
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My TV Aerial is safe anyway. It blew down last February, so I stuck it in the loft.
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Old 28-12-2015, 17:25
Big brother tv
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Starting to look like if the cold from the east reaches us next week, which it may, it will soon get pushed back east again by the incessant and very annoying south westerlies who may just be taking a short breather.
It's supposed to snow on Thursday.
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Old 28-12-2015, 20:17
Terry N
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They've finally put up wind warnings.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...ime=1451347200

Should be amber if you ask me.
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Old 28-12-2015, 20:21
blueblade
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They've finally put up wind warnings.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...ime=1451347200

Should be amber if you ask me.
It may well change as the storm system gets closer and they can predict its path more accurately.
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Old 28-12-2015, 21:37
Terry N
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It may well change as the storm system gets closer and they can predict its path more accurately.
Well it's gone up to 64mph gusts in Belfast now. That will wreck the place.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...ime=1451347200
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Old 29-12-2015, 04:51
Rich Tea.
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Thanks, and I bet Shap is nothing like the wettest either.

Storm Frank is shaping up to be the worst storm of winter so far.
It seems that naming these storms is getting negative comments now we have reached the 6th in barely 6 weeks or so. I must admit that when I first heard about the naming of UK storms I did think it was rather pointless and almost silly. I'm now coming around to the idea that its nothing more than some kind of dumbed down way of the Met Office interacting with the media, which love nothing more than to tag labels onto things, even a bit of wind and rain. I wonder if they will review doing it at some point? The mass end print media, Express, Mail, Mirror, Star & Sun certainly cannot be trusted to report impending potential weather stories in any kind of responsible and measured manner. It's nearly always 90% fantasy.

Storm Eva on Christmas Eve proved a damp squib that nothing much came of in the end. Of course if this had been one of those cold winters with a blocking high nearby we might have still been a long way off the arrival of the first named storm still.
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Old 29-12-2015, 13:38
Terry N
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Amber warning now in NI for rain. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...ime=1451347200
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Old 29-12-2015, 17:26
Big brother tv
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Sustained winds of 50mph here
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Old 29-12-2015, 17:42
RobinOfLoxley
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The Antarctic Biography of Frank Bickerton is very interesting.

They managed to pick a rocky cliff site that had year round average winds of 70mph (I think)
Only a few days weren't windy and maximums were 200mph

Half the group got stranded for an unplanned second year.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Born-Adventu.../dp/0750940123

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austra...tic_Expedition

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Denison
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Old 29-12-2015, 17:50
Terry N
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Sustained winds of 50mph here
Where are you? I'm only getting 40mph gusts so far.
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Old 29-12-2015, 18:46
Terry N
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Storm Frank has undergone explosive cyclogenesis - BBC Weather.

https://twitter.com/bbcweather/statu...08259020738560
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Old 29-12-2015, 18:54
blueblade
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Storm Frank has undergone explosive cyclogenesis - BBC Weather.

https://twitter.com/bbcweather/statu...08259020738560
That's just the twitter user's name. It's not from the actual BBC weather.
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Old 29-12-2015, 19:02
Terry N
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That's just the twitter user's name. It's not from the actual BBC weather.
Eh? BBC Weather tweeted it. It's from them.
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Old 29-12-2015, 19:15
francie
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Storm Frank has undergone explosive cyclogenesis - BBC Weather.

https://twitter.com/bbcweather/statu...08259020738560
Love this explanation...

Alastair McCulloch ‏@TheForestDeliCo 20m20 minutes ago

@bbcweather @smallholderadve It means an intensification in cyclonic activity. As someone said earlier, it means "chuffing windy & wet".
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Old 29-12-2015, 19:18
blueblade
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Eh? BBC Weather tweeted it. It's from them.
You're right - my bad
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Old 29-12-2015, 20:24
pugamo
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I'm no weather expert, but its pissing it down and freezing here.
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