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Weather Watching - Enthusiasts Thread
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mushymanrob
18-08-2016
Originally Posted by d'@ve:
“I've heard it too! For Scotland (mean August max. 19.1, Edinburgh) and much of northern England (mean August max ~20.0), even Plymouth and the south west... 25 C is definitely hot there, not really in the south east though where 25C is pretty common, 2 or 3 above average. I'll go for 'very warm' as my description of 25C in the south east and the midlands.”

but it doesnt matter what the average is or how common its achieved... what you demonstrate is that the southeast is hotter then the northwest, which is bloody obvious!

cant agree at all with different temps equalling hot for different areas of the country, and youll not find a met office definition to support that either...

ill take you back to death valley or any hot place.... by your logic if the average is 30c, 35c, 40c, then thats not 'hot'?...
Rich_L
18-08-2016
I am personally looking forward to the Daily Express / Star impending

'Winter Set to Last For Three Months!!!'

headlines warning us of 2 feet of snow, Siberian temperatures and old people dying in their thousands...

I mean, they got '4 months of summer to start in May' spot on didn't they?
blueblade
18-08-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“depends what the met o definition is of a 'scorcher'! ”

If the met office set a scorcher definition, then it's-now joke
mushymanrob
18-08-2016
HEATWAVE?.....

interestingly the current ecm and gfs suggest a transient hot blast later next week with the 20c upper isotherm across much of southern/central uk... if this happens, it will be extremely humid and hot (by any miserable definition! lol) temps well into the 30's c .

this is in line with what the anomaly charts allow for in their mean prediction, BUT any such hot blast will be transitory, and this one could well end in some very violent storms to start bank holiday weekend.

tbh i would love to see one last hot blast, but im not expecting the current charts to verify, but maybe something less extreme heat wise might be on the cards.
d'@ve
18-08-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“but it doesnt matter what the average is or how common its achieved... what you demonstrate is that the southeast is hotter then the northwest, which is bloody obvious!

cant agree at all with different temps equalling hot for different areas of the country, and youll not find a met office definition to support that either...

ill take you back to death valley or any hot place.... by your logic if the average is 30c, 35c, 40c, then thats not 'hot'?... ”

Only in comparison with what *we* are used to. Not for them, it's normal there in the summer. Anyway you started all this off with your 'another mini heatwave" thing, and heatwave is defined (by WMO and used by Met Office) and is relative to average summer temperatures.

Hopefully we've covered everything now, you have your hot and I'll have mine.
mushymanrob
18-08-2016
Originally Posted by d'@ve:
“Only in comparison with what *we* are used to. Not for them, it's normal there in the summer. .”

but thats the point, it being 'normal' doesnt mean its not hot!
mushymanrob
19-08-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“HEATWAVE?.....

interestingly the current ecm and gfs suggest a transient hot blast later next week with the 20c upper isotherm across much of southern/central uk... if this happens, it will be extremely humid and hot (by any miserable definition! lol) temps well into the 30's c .

this is in line with what the anomaly charts allow for in their mean prediction, BUT any such hot blast will be transitory, and this one could well end in some very violent storms to start bank holiday weekend.

tbh i would love to see one last hot blast, but im not expecting the current charts to verify, but maybe something less extreme heat wise might be on the cards.”

evidence is growing for this.... we could bake or/and sweat ...

but the evolution of it looks a bit dodgy to me, so whilst all models including the 6-10 day anomaly chart all support some kind of heatwave, im not so sure the evolution to get to that position is sound.
blueblade
19-08-2016
Yep, another "temporary" waft of heat looks likely next week.

Although whether it will end in thunderstorms is moot. It was forecasted that this last spell would, but nothing happened.
mushymanrob
19-08-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Yep, another "temporary" waft of heat looks likely next week.

Although whether it will end in thunderstorms is moot. It was forecasted that this last spell would, but nothing happened.”


true ... but this breakdown always had too much southwesterly in it for me, i always reckon proper storms come off france and spain. thats exactly what the next breakdown is currently expected to bring, as i see it, as long as we get that southerly flow, we will get thunderstorms somewhere.
mushymanrob
20-08-2016
looking like a rather messy pattern over the bank holiday, humidity and heat but muggy bright/cloudy skies as opposed to clear blue/sun.. heavy thundery rain/ showers mixed with brighter sunnier spells.
blueblade
20-08-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“looking like a rather messy pattern over the bank holiday, humidity and heat but muggy bright/cloudy skies as opposed to clear blue/sun.. heavy thundery rain/ showers mixed with brighter sunnier spells.”

Although quite a bit of Sun to start with, prior to the weekend. The much vaunted 30 degrees is being touted again for mid - late week.
mushymanrob
20-08-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Although quite a bit of Sun to start with, prior to the weekend. The much vaunted 30 degrees is being touted again for mid - late week.”

indeed, tues/weds look increasingly good and sunny.. but theres a lot of uncertainty as we dont seem to be able to hang on to a high in the right place for long.
blueblade
20-08-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“indeed, tues/weds look increasingly good and sunny.. but theres a lot of uncertainty as we dont seem to be able to hang on to a high in the right place for long.”

The very warm/hot spells are mounting up, but none of them are sustained as the Atlantic is too active, and the high pressure areas too weak and transient. Nonetheless, temperatures for the Summer overall are going to be a chunk above average - about 1 degree in all three months - helped by some warm nights.

Ironically enough, though, despite the active Atlantic, we have just come out of quite a prolonged dry spell in the South, with little rain for 3 or 4 weeks in many areas. The grass was turning yellow. Yesterday's and today's rainfall will be useful for the gardens.
mushymanrob
20-08-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“The very warm/hot spells are mounting up, but none of them are sustained as the Atlantic is too active, and the high pressure areas too weak and transient. Nonetheless, temperatures for the Summer overall are going to be a chunk above average - about 1 degree in all three months - helped by some warm nights.

Ironically enough, though, despite the active Atlantic, we have just come out of quite a prolonged dry spell in the South, with little rain for 3 or 4 weeks in many areas. The grass was turning yellow. Yesterday's and today's rainfall will be useful for the gardens.”

just over 5 weeks since we had any meaningful rain here, county showground was flooded late june - show cancelled, heavy showers afterwards kept the ground wet and the grass growing.

only now is the grass beginning to dry off and slow down on well drained soils (clays are still green) .

todays strong wind though is drying things out fast...
mushymanrob
22-08-2016
make the most of this weeks heat, for those who get it, (most will tomorrow), because after a messy few days ahead with some sun/heat and thundery rain possible later, by next monday its going to be low pressure dominance, cooler, fresher, unsettled, normal average early autumnal weather looks most likely and that pattern is likely to last a while.

so this weeks heat is possibly the last of the year.
david16
22-08-2016
Does anyone know when they show temperature values on the BBC weather forecast maps how large an area do the values cover?

People when they go out mid afternoon probably think it's 25 degrees C today because that's what was forecast on the BBC weather map close to where they live, and it feels warm, but the actual highest recorded temperature for their town all day was only actually 21 degrees C.

Are these BBC forecasted temperature values that are on the map truly accurate.
Kat1966
22-08-2016
Originally Posted by david16:
“Does anyone know when they show temperature values on the BBC weather forecast maps how large an area do the values cover?

People when they go out mid afternoon probably think it's 25 degrees C today because that's what was forecast on the BBC weather map close to where they live, and it feels warm, but the actual highest recorded temperature for their town all day was only actually 21 degrees C.

Are these BBC forecasted temperature values that are on the map truly accurate.”

I can only go by their weather app which I have on my phone, I have it set to where I live and it gives me the temperature for my area, which usually corresponds with the temperature for Birmingham shown on Midlands Today and the national weather forecasts. I live around 4 miles from Birmingham city centre.

Its dull but humid here in the West Midlands Today, really would not be surprised at a thunderstorm. My app is showing that tomorrow will be the hottest day for us this week.

I'm sure someone who understands the weather charts will be along and explain it much better than I am!
blueblade
22-08-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“make the most of this weeks heat, for those who get it, (most will tomorrow), because after a messy few days ahead with some sun/heat and thundery rain possible later, by next monday its going to be low pressure dominance, cooler, fresher, unsettled, normal average early autumnal weather looks most likely and that pattern is likely to last a while.

so this weeks heat is possibly the last of the year.”

Potential for violent thunderstorms on Wednesday night/Thursday.
mushymanrob
23-08-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Potential for violent thunderstorms on Wednesday night/Thursday.”

......... in the southeastern quadrant of the uk, more again on saturday? looks like a little feature might invigorate on saturday..
blueblade
23-08-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“......... in the southeastern quadrant of the uk, more again on saturday? looks like a little feature might invigorate on saturday..”

As always with thunderstorms it's very difficult if not impossible to say where exactly will be affected.
mushymanrob
23-08-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“As always with thunderstorms it's very difficult if not impossible to say where exactly will be affected.”

absolutely, ive seen some humdingers appear as if by magic from nowhere, unexpectedly ( theres was 1 in 1986 i think it was, quite early on in may) caused flooding here. july 11th 1981 here in derby, flash flood, we had 3" of rain in an unexpected cloudburst, june 25th 1973 we had one too which wasnt predicted.

other times the conditions seem spot on, but they fail to appear or we only get thundery rain... imho a thunderstorm is just that, a STORM, not a bit of piss weak almost apologetic rumbling..
MR_Pitkin
23-08-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“make the most of this weeks heat, for those who get it, (most will tomorrow), because after a messy few days ahead with some sun/heat and thundery rain possible later, by next monday its going to be low pressure dominance, cooler, fresher, unsettled, normal average early autumnal weather looks most likely and that pattern is likely to last a while.

so this weeks heat is possibly the last of the year.”

I do hope so, roll on Autumn/Winter.
Arcana
23-08-2016
30°C this pm in SE London. 🏝
francie
23-08-2016
Beautiful sunshine in the sw today
Eadfrith
23-08-2016
31c now in East Anglia.
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