nice to see the tellymen catching up with old mushy! lol.... they too now say heat next week, rather oppressive humidity too. pity this southeasterly draw didnt come in june or july, we would really have baked!

overall outlook by the anomaly charts suggest the controling high to our east (by tuesday) will be the major influence for some time, so even a breakdown thus/fri wont be a decisive one and more warm dry southerlies should return . pattern likely to last upto 2 weeks. but with subtle changes in the exact position and orientation of the high means we might not get it as warm and humid as itll be tues-thurs.

Yes, you were pretty much spot on. I have to say I'm really looking forward to this warm spell, not the least as I've now been transferred from team leading to some project work two days a week, from home, Thursdays and Fridays. This means I can get up very early and have most of my work done by 10am - leaving the rest of the day free. So hopefully be able to take advantage of what should be decent days. Even though I have to have my phone beside me in case of new e mails requiring immediate action.

Regarding today's rain. It appears to be moving in a sort of East North Easterly direction, from Ireland, so is rather further North than the Met Office anticipated a couple of days ago.

Yep, on Wednesday they told us we would miss it in Northern Ireland, it now gives rain all day, hasn't started yet though.

You may yet miss most of it. I note that the back edge of the rain band has already reached the West coast of the Irish Republic.

latest rainfall radar

To be fair to the presenters, Tomasz Schafernaker said it in the "Weather for the Week Ahead" at 1:20 am on September 1st.

The days when a high pressure moving up from the south or south east sat over the UK (with the centre just to the east of the UK) for 2 months plus at the height of summer is a thing of the past.

We see more high pressure over Greenland and Scandinavia than we see high pressure over the uk in the summer months nowadays.

then he could, in theory, have read my post reagarding this mini heatwave as i posted that half an hour before he broadcast it! (post 1098)

i also made reference to the anomaly charts accurately predicting this mean upper pattern, which allows for this short lives blast.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


On 28th August

Oh come on, his broadcast at 1:20 am is nearly 12 hours before you mentioned this so-called mini heatwave and your 28th. August reference (if that's the one) was pretty non-specific. I wouldn't have even mentioned it though if you hadn't claimed what you did.

Incidentally, so far this month here in S Hants it's been poor for the location, with a mean maximum for the 4 days of 19.8 deg C, hardly any sight of the sun and with 15mm of rain or drizzle at times. Need a few warmer dry and sunny days to even make the early September average.

oh i see my error

however as i didnt see his forecast as im asleep by 1.20 am...

of course a suggestion 6 days ahead is non specific.... but i did say there where hints of a heatwave. i didnt say theres hints of a cold northerly, showery northwesterly, low pressure dominated wet few days or a long hot dry sunny spell... you might like to be pedantic over some of the detail, but the anomaly charts have got this mid range spell spot on, yet again...

and guess what?.... theres little change over the next 2 weeks.... they predict high pressure over europe, the mean upper trough sat southwest of iceland. that puts the uk under a southsouthwest upper air flow.

what does that mean?.... it means there is likely to be a lot of warm dry sunny weather especially in the southeast but effecting most of southern uk. wettest cloudiest in the northwest.

but its not looking settled for longer then 3 days tops... so a couple or so of nice dry warm sunny days followed by a short lived unsettled wetter cooler spells before drier warmer sunnier ones return.

but please... if you dont agree, ignore my posts

Another very warm start to the day, with the 6am temperatures around 18, 19, or 20 degrees, very widely.

next week now looks like having a more westerly componant in the upper airflow, still more high pressure dominance then low but the high looks like being close to our southeast, not east, so less chance of heat as such, and more of a westerly flow. still mainly dry, sunny/bright and warmer then average.

I couldn't believe it when I stepped into our back garden this morning. It was still, as still as I have ever seen it. Not one leaf was moving ... and I found it hard to breathe. Horrible. I can't remember struggling to breathe outside before, and I'm asthmatic.

When is this stifling heat going to end, we're in bloody Autumn for Gods sake!

Going to end? It's been bloody miserable for months!! We have barely had a summer

Yes, it was like that a few days ago as well, 30th August. I commented on it at post No 1091.

Fairly still again this morning, although there is some slight movement.

I know asthmatics are suffering at present. But it won't be too long before cooler, fresher air arrives. Tomorrow should be better from your point of view.

indeed, theres now looking like a gradual slide away from this very warm/hot humid weather as the high to our east declines, but never goes, not yet anyway.

anomaly charts suggest a more westerly component to our mean upper flow by later next week but with high to our near southeast. temps should be down towards average but remaining just above? but fresher less humid air and it must be said that we are unlikely to get temps as high as todays max again this year. (thats unlikely but not impossible!)

this mornings operational runs show another heatwave later next week as another hot humid plume heads our way.... southern areas most at risk..

but the anomaly charts are suggesting a more average regime from about 9 days time..

It's kind of ironic, as I personally find the still warmth very pleasant. But I would sooner have a cooler breeze if it meant asthmatics getting some relief. My sister suffers from asthma, and she's certainly had a particularly bad Summer this year.


The current synoptics - and I think you would probably agree with me on this - suggest that it's certainly not going to be below average, temperature wise, anytime soon. We will most likely vary between near or slightly above normal to warm or very warm (hot?) for the next couple of weeks.

Whilst I don't think it will happen this year, I'd love to see a UK 32.3C (90F) September temperature. Not had one since 1949, climate change or no. We almost did it in 2005, with 32.1C on 31st August.


Source: Prof Trevor Harley

actually my morning post was wrong.... it was the overnight charts that suggested another hot humid spell later next week, this mornings suggest itll be tuesday, maybe wednesday for the southeast.

i had a link once to a site that had the max/min daily records... lost it now but that would have been interesting as daily records could be broken more easily then monthly ones.

What a pity. Such a site would have been invaluable as a reference.

http://www.torro.org.uk/hightempsyear.php

Not sure how up to date it's kept, though there are one or two 2016 entries.

cheers, appreciate that

NP, and what always stands out for me when I look at that table is that for 10 of the 15 days commencing June 23rd, 1976 has the record or equals the record for highest maximum temperature. This is one of those occasions when the statistics fully support those of us who can remember it, what an astonishing fortnight of record breaking hot weather, not least for starting so early in the season.

I hate this recent horrid tropical moist feeling weather where temperatures have been 22 or 23 degrees C while it's pouring with rain.