Weather Watching - Enthusiasts Thread
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First named Storm of the year then perhaps..?
It looks like it will be different from the ones we had last year though as it's coming from the Arctic rather than the Atlantic, so instead of getting battered by wind and rain we could be getting a snow blizzard and be knee-deep in snow by Sunday.
it will get noticably cold over the next 24 hours.... as expected.
a lot of northern blocking showing up on the anomaly charts, an easterly is very likely , although southerly sourced air at first, so not too cold, its only a question of time before a proper bitterly cold easterly arrives. are the 'building blocks' getting in place for the first 'big freeze' of the season?..
a lot of northern blocking showing up on the anomaly charts, an easterly is very likely , although southerly sourced air at first, so not too cold, its only a question of time before a proper bitterly cold easterly arrives. are the 'building blocks' getting in place for the first 'big freeze' of the season?..
Originally Posted by Steffan_Leach:
“ it's coming from the Arctic rather than the Atlantic, so instead of getting battered by wind and rain we could be getting a snow blizzard and be knee-deep in snow by Sunday.”
“ it's coming from the Arctic rather than the Atlantic, so instead of getting battered by wind and rain we could be getting a snow blizzard and be knee-deep in snow by Sunday.”
Cold rain or nasty sleety stuff for a while on Monday-Tuesday in some places maybe, snow on northern hills of course. But hey it's mid November so any lying snow (if there's any, big if) won't stick around for long even in your neck of the woods. We'll have to wait for later in the week to get a firm handle on it though.
Personally, I am much more interested in the potential for gales from a nasty looking Low ~980 hPa moving up the Channel and/or in southern England on Saturday night/Sunday morning and perhaps another one on Monday night. Far more interested, but again, it will be later in the week before we get any kind of a firm handle on that one but if we get a named storm, that's where it's likely to come from.
So despite the wind blowing in from the Southwest, the temperature is forecast to get much colder over the next few days. We are forecast to get a mixture of rain, sleet and snow from Friday. Usually at this time of year your choices are either mild and wet or cold and dry. However, with this set up we get the worst of Both Worlds - very cold and wet, Ugh.. 
At least last November was mild despite the horrific rainfall.
At least last November was mild despite the horrific rainfall.
Originally Posted by Steffan_Leach:
“So despite the wind blowing in from the Southwest, the temperature is forecast to get much colder over the next few days. We are forecast to get a mixture of rain, sleet and snow from Friday. Usually at this time of year your choices are either mild and wet or cold and dry. However, with this set up we get the worst of Both Worlds - very cold and wet, Ugh..
At least last November was mild despite the horrific rainfall.”
“So despite the wind blowing in from the Southwest, the temperature is forecast to get much colder over the next few days. We are forecast to get a mixture of rain, sleet and snow from Friday. Usually at this time of year your choices are either mild and wet or cold and dry. However, with this set up we get the worst of Both Worlds - very cold and wet, Ugh..
At least last November was mild despite the horrific rainfall.”
Why do you prefer mild wet winters?
Originally Posted by Steffan_Leach:
“Just shows that our weather has been getting more extreme in recent years. All the time now we're breaking new records. Warmest day, wettest month etc.”
“Just shows that our weather has been getting more extreme in recent years. All the time now we're breaking new records. Warmest day, wettest month etc.”
Here's a point worth considering which has crossed my mind when some parts of the country received their first snowfall briefly early last week. We have had an extremely late very hot spell this year when the heat went well into the 30's Celsius and 90's Fahrenheit with a maximum of 34.4c on 13th September and then went into a very early first snowfall event, however brief, overnight into the 9th November. A very short period of just 8 weeks (57days) separated 90f widely across England to lying snow. This is quite remarkable and must be something of a British or English record in itself.
In an earlier post you mentioned January and February 2007 as being very mild. Well I have many pictures on my laptop from both those months as I had a new digital camera at the time and was snapping away. In January my area had significant flooding and pictures from 11th January 2007 show this in a way it has not flooded since that date as badly here. However I'm not so sure I'd call February 2007 a very mild month as on 8th February 2007 there was widespread and very significant snowfall lying across England and it was quite considerable at my North Bucks location which can often miss out on decent accumulations much of the time. It was the most significant snowfall in very many years here that month.
Rainfall in October 2016 at my location was a mere 19mm but that fails to tell a very odd story because 12mm of that monthly total fell inside just 10 minutes on a Sunday night on 16th October during a very freak and unexpected thundery squall that hit. For such a dry month to have such an isolated sudden almost monsoon like downpour was very notable. Without that it would have been just 7mm making October one of the driest months I have ever recorded at any time of year.
Snow where? 30s where? Are you comparing trends in chalk and cheese?
Haven't seen this in the South West.
Particular days' UK weather maps would be handy, or further explanation, if if you think you are onto something.
Haven't seen this in the South West.
Particular days' UK weather maps would be handy, or further explanation, if if you think you are onto something.
Originally Posted by Steffan_Leach:
“So despite the wind blowing in from the Southwest, the temperature is forecast to get much colder over the next few days. .”
“So despite the wind blowing in from the Southwest, the temperature is forecast to get much colder over the next few days. .”
the air is sourced from the polar region, despite it being west or southwest, its not a straight southwesterly.
We are still on for possible storms in the south on Saturday night and Monday but the models are all over the place. We may not know where when and how bad until 12 to 24 hours beforehand! Might even happen over northern France instead. Far too early for any warnings at this stage, for obvious reasons!
Originally Posted by Rich Tea.:
“Here's a point worth considering which has crossed my mind when some parts of the country received their first snowfall briefly early last week. We have had an extremely late very hot spell this year when the heat went well into the 30's Celsius and 90's Fahrenheit with a maximum of 34.4c on 13th September and then went into a very early first snowfall event, however brief, overnight into the 9th November. A very short period of just 8 weeks (57days) separated 90f widely across England to lying snow. This is quite remarkable and must be something of a British or English record in itself.”
“Here's a point worth considering which has crossed my mind when some parts of the country received their first snowfall briefly early last week. We have had an extremely late very hot spell this year when the heat went well into the 30's Celsius and 90's Fahrenheit with a maximum of 34.4c on 13th September and then went into a very early first snowfall event, however brief, overnight into the 9th November. A very short period of just 8 weeks (57days) separated 90f widely across England to lying snow. This is quite remarkable and must be something of a British or English record in itself.”
<snipped for brevity>
Actually, believe it or not, this scenario isn't unprecedented. On 19th September 1926, the temperature reached 32.2C in a late heatwave. Yet October soon became cold, and later snowy - 5cm in London on 28th, for example.
link
Quote:
“September 1926. A warm month. 27C as reported on the 10th. Then there was a remarkable late heatwave. North London (Camden) reached 32.2C on the 19th - the latest date on which the magical 90F has been recorded, the latest date in the twentieth century when 30C has been reached, and also the latest date in the twentieth century in the year when that year's highest temperature was attained.
October 1926. A cold month overall (CET 8.1C). The month started off nice and warm (23.5C at Worksop on the 4th), with a thundery breakdown on the 5-6th. It was then wet and windy. The month turned much colder from the 14th with frosts, and snow fell almost daily from the 19th. There was sleet on the 21st as far south as the Isle of Wight. Gales and heavy ran on the 24-25th; about 125 mm of rain near Keswick. Further snow on the 28th gave 5cm in London (Hampstead). At Harrogate there was morning snow cover for three consecutive days. Snow was a foot deep at Dalnaspidal near Perth on the 28th. It was -10.5C at Braemar on the 27th, and snow eventually reached a depth of 30 cm over the Perthshire hills. Apparently the severe weather was blamed on the sun: either on the auroral display of the 14-15th, or on sunspot activity.”
“September 1926. A warm month. 27C as reported on the 10th. Then there was a remarkable late heatwave. North London (Camden) reached 32.2C on the 19th - the latest date on which the magical 90F has been recorded, the latest date in the twentieth century when 30C has been reached, and also the latest date in the twentieth century in the year when that year's highest temperature was attained.
October 1926. A cold month overall (CET 8.1C). The month started off nice and warm (23.5C at Worksop on the 4th), with a thundery breakdown on the 5-6th. It was then wet and windy. The month turned much colder from the 14th with frosts, and snow fell almost daily from the 19th. There was sleet on the 21st as far south as the Isle of Wight. Gales and heavy ran on the 24-25th; about 125 mm of rain near Keswick. Further snow on the 28th gave 5cm in London (Hampstead). At Harrogate there was morning snow cover for three consecutive days. Snow was a foot deep at Dalnaspidal near Perth on the 28th. It was -10.5C at Braemar on the 27th, and snow eventually reached a depth of 30 cm over the Perthshire hills. Apparently the severe weather was blamed on the sun: either on the auroral display of the 14-15th, or on sunspot activity.”
So just a few weeks separated 32 degrees, with frost and snow, in that year.
Originally Posted by d'@ve:
“We are still on for possible storms in the south on Saturday night and Monday but the models are all over the place. We may not know where when and how bad until 12 to 24 hours beforehand! Might even happen over northern France instead. Far too early for any warnings at this stage, for obvious reasons!”
“We are still on for possible storms in the south on Saturday night and Monday but the models are all over the place. We may not know where when and how bad until 12 to 24 hours beforehand! Might even happen over northern France instead. Far too early for any warnings at this stage, for obvious reasons!”
With regard to the winds, everything depends on the track of the low centre. As we all know, the strongest winds are generally to the South of the centre of low pressure. So if, as is eminently possible, the low tracks across Southern England, the strongest winds will be over Northern France. If a little further North over the Midlands, then Southern coastal counties will be worst affected. We shall see.
Worst case scenario sees the low pressure crossing over Northern England, deepening as it does so.
The Met Office forecast synoptic charts have the centre moving up the English channel, with a small centre lying over Kent at midday on Sunday.
Tornadoes hit Wales and Midlands
Full details not yet known, but one to watch. Probably only mini ones though.
Full details not yet known, but one to watch. Probably only mini ones though.
On/Off rain and a bit blustery here. Typical November weather. Temperature only 5/6c but it doesn't feel too bad. I do have my big hoodie on though.
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Tornadoes hit Wales and Midlands
Full details not yet known, but one to watch. Probably only mini ones though.”
“Tornadoes hit Wales and Midlands
Full details not yet known, but one to watch. Probably only mini ones though.”
Remember this from this week 35 years back in '81 across England and Wales;
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...883.x/abstract
About half an hour ago we had one almighty crack of thunder, completely out of the blue. Frightened the life out of me as it wasn't even raining then!
ETA North Somerset.
ETA North Somerset.
Originally Posted by Rich Tea.:
“Remember this from this week 35 years back in '81 across England and Wales;
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...883.x/abstract”
“Remember this from this week 35 years back in '81 across England and Wales;
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...883.x/abstract”
I was only 8 at the time, and to be honest, I don't remember it, although I have read about it since. From the dots on that map, it looks as though your area was particularly badly affected.
Of course, none of us will remember the October 1913 tornado - that was truly a belter - link
Originally Posted by Terry N:
“Snow in NI. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38018168
Freezing here.
”
“Snow in NI. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38018168
Freezing here.
”
Yep, not a surprise.
Rain here last night turning into sleety snow through the night. Woke up to a light dusting this morning.
Grey, wet and sleety today, it's very wet and slushy underfoot. Not quite cold enough for proper snow but it sort of looks like it's snowing then a minute later it's sleet again. Roads a.t.m. are quite busy for the time of day.
Grey, wet and sleety today, it's very wet and slushy underfoot. Not quite cold enough for proper snow but it sort of looks like it's snowing then a minute later it's sleet again. Roads a.t.m. are quite busy for the time of day.
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Some interesting temperature contrasts, from 11C at Heathrow at midday, to 3C at Yeovilton.
link”
“Some interesting temperature contrasts, from 11C at Heathrow at midday, to 3C at Yeovilton.
link”
1c at Bingley now.
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