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Weather Watching - Enthusiasts Thread
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Steffan_Leach
18-11-2016
Originally Posted by RobinOfLoxley:
“Snow where? 30s where? Are you comparing trends in chalk and cheese?

Haven't seen this in the South West.

Particular days' UK weather maps would be handy, or further explanation, if if you think you are onto something.”

It's because the South West of England rarely sees extremes in temperature. Devon and Cornwall are mostly surrounded by water which helps moderate the temperature.

They are also the first to benefit from the warmth of the gulf stream which keeps them much milder in Winter than most other parts of the country.
Steffan_Leach
18-11-2016
Wow it's really coming down in Cumbria now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weatherwatcher...-ed6448d51166/


Also Bacup, Lancashire

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weatherwatcher...-dec2e681e5a6/
RobinOfLoxley
18-11-2016
Originally Posted by Steffan_Leach:
“It's because the South West of England rarely sees extremes in temperature. Devon and Cornwall are mostly surrounded by water which helps moderate the temperature.

They are also the first to benefit from the warmth of the gulf stream which keeps them much milder in Winter than most other parts of the country.”

We have Palm Trees and everything. Ayrshire Coast does too, little known trivia.

The Gulf Stream is amazing.


Thanks for reply
d'@ve
18-11-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“Some interesting temperature contrasts, from 11C at Heathrow at midday, to 3C at Yeovilton.

link”

That turned out to be bad data from Heathrow, from the METARs it was in fact 6 deg C there at midday today and similar at all surrounding stations. It got me looking at my setup though as I was showing 4.1 deg C and when I checked, my Cumulus data log program had partially locked up at 6 am! I was able to recover all my lost data by copying the midnight backup and forcing it to re-download. Phew!

I see Sunday morning's predicted Channel/S England low has led to a yellow warning of rain and gales for the south eastern corner, with the exact track still being uncertain though so we'll have to see what's forecast tonight and tomorrow to be sure of the 'where' and "how bad".
blueblade
18-11-2016
Originally Posted by d'@ve:
“That turned out to be bad data from Heathrow, from the METARs it was in fact 6 deg C there at midday today and similar at all surrounding stations. It got me looking at my setup though as I was showing 4.1 deg C and when I checked, my Cumulus data log program had partially locked up at 6 am! I was able to recover all my lost data by copying the midnight backup and forcing it to re-download. Phew!

I see Sunday morning's predicted Channel/S England low has led to a yellow warning of rain and gales for the south eastern corner, with the exact track still being uncertain though so we'll have to see what's forecast tonight and tomorrow to be sure of the 'where' and "how bad".”

That doesn't surprise me in the slightest.

As for the track of the low, well it's still uncertain. We will see. If it follows the currently expected track, we might get a bit of a battering round here.
Ben_Copland
18-11-2016
It's just hailed so persistently here that it looked like snow. I always assume it's too cold for snow if it hails, because it is biting out there! (Here is the north west)
Kevin Smear
18-11-2016
Originally Posted by Ben_Copland:
“It's just hailed so persistently here that it looked like snow. I always assume it's too cold for snow if it hails, because it is biting out there! (Here is the north west)”

Too cold for snow? Is that a joke?
mushymanrob
18-11-2016
Originally Posted by Kevin Smear:
“Too cold for snow? Is that a joke?”

lol... another one who hates that ridiculous saying eh?
mushymanrob
18-11-2016
we are still in line for easterlies later next week, interestingly has anyone noticed the russian high? 1061 mb !! ( for monday) , thats intense and has drawn some rather warm air up and into central europe. will it get here?... dunno but i reckon itll be cloudy..
blueblade
18-11-2016
Originally Posted by Kevin Smear:
“Too cold for snow? Is that a joke?”

It is, actually.
Steffan_Leach
18-11-2016
A fun weather game to play if anyone's interested: https://ocarson.itch.io/and-now-the-weather?ac=jXdAbFQF
Steffan_Leach
18-11-2016
Weather forecasting site if anyone's interested.

http://www.weathergame.co.uk/weather...s-of-the-game/
Rich Tea.
19-11-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“I was only 8 at the time, and to be honest, I don't remember it, although I have read about it since. From the dots on that map, it looks as though your area was particularly badly affected.

Of course, none of us will remember the October 1913 tornado - that was truly a belter - link”

I was just 12 and although those dots appear to be all around my location (same now as it was in 1981) I have absolutely no memory of it either. The first time I recall reading about this event was in one of my 1980's Guinness Book Of Records that it appeared in. But then some of these British tornado's can be highly localised individual events. Meanwhile we brace ourselves for severe gales in southern and eastern England this weekend. Goodbye any remaining leaves!
mushymanrob
19-11-2016
BIG FREEZE?...

anomaly charts (8-14 dayer) have taken a significant step towards a bitterly cold pattern. ok, more runs needed so confidence is low - but there.

this chart replaces the russian high with a scandinavian/russian low... it also suggests next weeks high to our north retrogresses westwards and joins with a huge upper high newfoundland/greenland.

this would, IF it becomes reality, put the uk in significant risk of a big freeze by the end of the month.

itll be interesting to see if this does occur, more runs needed to be more certain, indeed theres more chance of it not happening atm - and we might escape the polar blast even if there is one.

something to watch.
slappers r us
19-11-2016
Had to go out early this morning to a Christmas fair

everything was frozen up and the road was like an ice rink, -3 and really really cold

I dont like it
Rich Tea.
19-11-2016
Originally Posted by mushymanrob:
“BIG FREEZE?...

anomaly charts (8-14 dayer) have taken a significant step towards a bitterly cold pattern. ok, more runs needed so confidence is low - but there.

this chart replaces the russian high with a scandinavian/russian low... it also suggests next weeks high to our north retrogresses westwards and joins with a huge upper high newfoundland/greenland.

this would, IF it becomes reality, put the uk in significant risk of a big freeze by the end of the month.

itll be interesting to see if this does occur, more runs needed to be more certain, indeed theres more chance of it not happening atm - and we might escape the polar blast even if there is one.

something to watch.”

Let's hope so. What can be better than a snowy, frosty and crisp December in the run up to Yuletide.

I hate the term "big freeze" however. It's such an overused cliché that rarely describes the reality.

I notice that yet again earlier this month the Daily Excess got another 120 days of snow headline out;

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weathe...range-forecast

Yet only a 13% to 18% chance of a white Christmas. I'd expect it to be close to 100% based on that headline. The comedian Dave Gorman trashed the Express this week on his Modern Life Is Goodish show. That got plenty of approval from the audience.
d'@ve
19-11-2016
Meanwhile, back in the here and now, storm Angus has been named and is expected to affect south eastern England tomorrow morning, as has been well predicted for several days now. The amber warning area for wind gusts of 60-80 mph covers mainly the coastal areas but there is still uncertainty about the exact track of Angus so that could change - and isolated 70+ mph gusts could occur well inland in squally showers.

There is a much wider yellow warning area for rain and wind, with its northern edge from Devon over north London to southern East Anglia.

Angus is definitely one to watch, och aye!
tenofspades
19-11-2016
rain

need coat
RobinOfLoxley
19-11-2016
grey
.
blueblade
19-11-2016
Originally Posted by Rich Tea.:
“Let's hope so. What can be better than a snowy, frosty and crisp December in the run up to Yuletide.

I hate the term "big freeze" however. It's such an overused cliché that rarely describes the reality.

I notice that yet again earlier this month the Daily Excess got another 120 days of snow headline out;

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weathe...range-forecast

Yet only a 13% to 18% chance of a white Christmas. I'd expect it to be close to 100% based on that headline. The comedian Dave Gorman trashed the Express this week on his Modern Life Is Goodish show. That got plenty of approval from the audience.”

It's snow joke

/- coat>>>>>>>>>
d'@ve
19-11-2016
The calm before the storm. Wind speed here at 3 metres is 0 mph, not a even leaf rustling in between the showers (2.2mm so far) ... which are zipping across the south at 33 mph! It feels odd out there. 6 degrees C. Pressure 1000 hPa, falling since 10 am.
blueblade
19-11-2016
Originally Posted by d'@ve:
“The calm before the storm. Wind speed here at 3 metres is 0 mph, not a even leaf rustling in between the showers (2.2mm so far) ... which are zipping across the south at 33 mph! It feels odd out there. 6 degrees C. Pressure 1000 hPa, falling since 10 am.”

The main rain area looks to be already in the South West approaches, with, as you say, a peppering of substantial looking showers running ahead of it.
nic6
19-11-2016
Storm "Angus"?
How pathetic.
Did a 5 year old come up with the idea of naming every little depression that comes off the Atlantic?
d'@ve
19-11-2016
Originally Posted by blueblade:
“The main rain area looks to be already in the South West approaches, with, as you say, a peppering of substantial looking showers running ahead of it.”

The GFS 12 noon charts are out now and have upped the peak mean wind speeds in mid Channel to force 11 soon after midnight and storm 10 in the Channel Islands before midnight there. Nearer to 6 am in Kent.

The track of the low is critical and they've moved its centre slightly north of Southampton now by 3 am, with the strongest winds on the coast to the south and east of there.

They are showing two wind speed peaks maybe 4 hours apart, with the sting possibly literally being in the tail. If it gets pushed a bit further north, the south coast from Isle of Wight eastwards is in for a real battering tonight - but Sussex and Kent may get that anyway.

I just hope it isn't another October 1987 setup - albeit unlikely - but the thought is always at the back of your mind down here with these deepening Channel storms. I hope it's a bit further south though, NIMBY!
blueblade
19-11-2016
Originally Posted by d'@ve:
“The GFS 12 noon charts are out now and have upped the peak mean wind speeds in mid Channel to force 11 soon after midnight and storm 10 in the Channel Islands before midnight there.

The track of the low is critical and they've moved its centre slightly north of Southampton now by 3 am, with the strongest winds on the coast to the south and east of there. If it gets pushed a bit further north, the south coast from Isle of Wight eastwards is in for a real battering tonight - but Sussex and Kent may get that anyway.

I just hope it isn't another October 1987 setup - albeit unlikely - but the thought is always at the back of your mind down here with these deepening Channel storms.”

Depends how rapidly it deepens. It is always possible and this scenario, I have to say, looks similar to the October 1987 situation. Maybe this time, just a bit further South - to be honest we're not really going to know it's ultimate route until it's already on us in the early hours of tomorrow.

Essex got a terrible battering from the 1987 storm, so I'll be stopping up very late to chart its progress. I'm slightly apprehensive about this one, I don't mind admitting.

I think anywhere a bit further North of the M4 corridor, is safe, however. Although Wales and the Midlands will get a hell of a soaking.
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