Still no sign of a prolonged mild wet spell from the atlantic as we head towards December.

The Greenland polar vortex, icelandic low and iberian high combo nowhere in sight on the latest charts.

Happy to see the high pressure for a change at this time of the year rather than the usual constant stormy weather that seems never ending. High pressure to the north very close to us too which is nice to see instead of the usual huge high pressure anchored over France, Spain and Portugal for ages.

Sunny during day but cold with overnight frost and fog is better weather than heavy rain, gales and 11 degrees C overnight and 12 or 13 degrees C by day.

Yes - less cold, rather than mild as such. There will be high pressure, but it will be pretty much right over Southern Britain with little wind and causing the air to stagnate. So frost and fog seems likely. Fog at thie time of year, once it becomes entrenched, often lasts all day.

It does look increasingly likely that a very cold and quite possibly snowy spell will arise from towards mid month (December).

How can the BBC weather forecasters be so confident that 10 days from now e.g. that it will become very mild and wet with severe flooding and severe gales from the west by then when it currently isn't mild and wet.

Yet dry and cold weather forecast 5 days out on rhe BBC forecast during a current wet spell there's only a 30% to 50% confidence it will turn drier and brighter with overnight frost and fog. As soon as wind and rain appears on the charts hours later on the next BBC forecast for a continuation of the current wet spell instead of the previous sunny but cold chart and forecast suddenly they are 70% to 100% confident it will be staying mild and wet.

Is every chart and forecast that doesn't show several days on the trot of atlantic wind and rain crossing the uk unreliable at this time of year, even as close as 2 to 3 days out?

Two to three weeks away? Naaah.... it's just a long shot. We could have guessed it a month ago based on climatology and have been just as likely to be right. I know the Met Office are suggesting dryish and rather cold conditions but hey, their success rate at that range is low, such forecasts are always wishy-washy, and in most Decembers we get some snow in some places at some point in the month.

yep.... as one high departs, it gets replaced with another from the west, and milder atlantic air should be drawn up and around its northern flank and across the uk .

theres a lot of anticyclonic weather on offer for the next ten days at least. so itll be mainly dry, mostly calm, but with varying amounts of cloud/clear and the airflow varying itll be anything from sunny days/frosty foggy nights, to overcast and rather drab, benign chilly/mild.

interestingly the 'big freeze' i suggested was possible does look like hitting northern europe as, by next weekend, the cold uppers sweep into northern/central europe.

not so sure about that m8..

the anomaly charts agree that theres a very high chance of high pressure over southern england, (7 - 10 days time) but im not convinced itll be a clear high, as itll draw moist atlantic air around it . southern areas will be at most risk from frost/fog but northern should get milder cloudier conditions.

how do you think itll become colder and snowier mid month? the anomaly charts are shifting away from suggesting a mean upper flow that would allow for such an event, in fact id suggest a mild southwesterly is more likely as the expected high later this week has a more southerly centre. id have thought a 'bartlett' high would be more likely then a northern blocking high.

as i see it, theres nothing in the output to suggest we are heading towards a cold snowy spell, quite the reverse in fact, i reckon chances are receding.

Well.....we do seem to be getting some slightly contradictory forecasts recently. Maybe they can't agree on models. I don't know, is the answer. But I was going on what was said on the longer range forecast yesterday.

Anyway make of this what you will - link


A bartlett high would be great.

i see, i take no notice of lrf's, ill stick to the anomaly charts that only stretch to 14 days ahead.

id sooner have a bartlett in february, not december, id sooner have cold in december then in feb. and '81-2' winter would be best imho

I absolutely agree with you on this point, certainly as far as my location was concerned anyway.

anomalys suggest a bartlett high still for early/mid december.

if that becomes reality itll kill any chance of a white crimbo because a bartlett high pattern in mid december is about as far away from a snowy synoptic pattern as you can get.

I don't see any signs of a Bartlett at this point - only High Pressure areas over some part or other of the UK for as far ahead as the main models predict (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO) so 7 to 15 days. The classic (unofficial!) Bartlett High would be to the south or south west of us, generally maintaining a westerly over the UK.

The UK Highs could drift further south than predicted of course and they could also be further north or east but for now, we are in the bulls eye so we can expect much the same as what we are getting now, with some very cold nights at times. Pretty dry in most places too.

Unless and until it all changes of course... though it has to be said that the models are usually better at predicting slow moving High Pressure setups than mobile westerlies.

Sorry but I have to disagree with you there...

Maybe I have just got used to it being milder at this time of year, but mild, wet, stormy and windy conditions feel far more Autumnal to me. Feel like we haven't really had a proper Autumn this year. September (particularly the 1st half) felt more like Summer, and this month has felt more like Winter a lot of the time.

We've only had one feeble storm up here so far this Autumn and that didn't last long, getting fed up of these cold, settled and dry conditons.

I used to like cold and snowy Winters and cool and wet Summers, so the Summer/Winters of 2009/2010 suited me well.

However, in more recent years we have seen less snowfall, and any that has fallen has not lasted long at all, often completely melting after a few hours in many cases.

While the Summers of 2013/14 were nice and warm and sunny, 2015 and particularly 2016 have been particularly disappointing with many days seeing temps no higher than low-mid teens and raining. So I'd also like to see a warmer, dryer spell next Summer with perhaps the odd thunderstorm and cool rainy day in case we get fed up of the heat.

While the hottest day of the year (July 19th I think) may have been overly warm for many the heat wasn't too bad - alough the temp was in the hi 20's maybe even reaching 30c here there was quite a nice breeze and the humidity wasn't too high (about 50% as I remember). I remember everyone was wearing thier nicest summer clothes and I remember thinking to myself (why can't we see this more often?). The night though was very warm and humid and unlike last year's plume, there was no thunderstrom to cool us down, my house stayed at 25c all night so it wasn't a great night at all for sleeping (esspecially as I am used to a cool house at night).

Throughout all of Winter I'm usually constantly checking weather forecasts hoping for the white stuff, then as soon as I hear the word "Snow" I get all excited. Then when it finally comes we get a light flurry then the next morning it's all melted away.
Then the rest of the time it's cold, wet and miserable anyway, so now I'd rather just have a mild winter. I still have to go to college/work, even if it's treacherous out, it just takes longer and I have to be more careful with all the slippery frosty pavements. It's not like when you're a kid when you get a day off school and you can build a snowman.

And I'm sure many people would agree that having to scrape cars every morning, having to wipe your bedroom window every day just to see oudside when you get up on a freezing morning, ice in the bird bath and having to wear snow boots, hats, gloves, scarfs so you don't slip and freeze to death whenever you walk down the street are not amongst peoples most favourable things to do in winter list.

At least if it's mild and wet you can just take a brolly or wear a hoody or raincoat depending on the intensity of the rain, rather than having to dress up like an eskimo every time you leave the house.

Saturday was freezing with the frost on places in the shade not shifting all day. Yesterday was a cloudier but milder day but still fairly crisp (about 7c) and the cloud helped to keep the temperature up. Today has been sunnier (also 7c) but here in the north west the temp could dip as low as -2 by morning so another severe frost expected. Not something you want to get up out of bed for...

So tbh I prefer it milder and cloudier. This cold, dry, and crisp weather in Winter has never suited me really, I would prefer it to be cold and snowy or mild rather than this.

I enjoyed that mild and dry spell we had at the end of October, and if that weather pattern had stayed with us all Winter I would have been a very happy bunny indeed.

Weather from the Continent may be great in Summer bringing dry, sunny weather in the lo 20's and lo humidity, but in Winter, no thanks, I'd rather take Atlantic Weather any day.

The problem this Autumn is that we haven't had enough transition time to get used to the colder weather - we had a very warm September, October was okay then it suddenly went very cold as soon as we got into November with only a brief milder spell in the middle of the month.

We've also had a lack of tropical maritime and tropical continental air this year, I really miss it badly, I'd much rather have that in Autumn and save the cold, snowy, frosty weather for January and February.

The typical weather for Christmas these days is overcast, gloomy, mild, damp and drizzly. Frost and Snow would just feel odd somehow...

It has felt a bit warmer in the house today with the solar heat and the low sun angle meaning we've had plenty of sunshine in the house, but this does not make up for the cold frosty nights that happen with clear skies. Esspecially as the days are so short now, the suns now too low to give off any heat and I'm starting to get goosebumps on my arms.. Going to have to put a jumper on soon. Not good.

The nicest weather at the moment is in Nice on the South coast of France, with the weather staying mild and sunny throughout.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2990440

Try getting two weeks of constant sunshine and no rain here, it's just not possible..

Maybe not but the sunniest dry weather at the moment is in southern England not southern France according to the France map in the link you just posted.

Forecast to get down to -2 in north west tonight. You'd think in Lancashire we'd have it a bit wetter and cloudier and therefore perhaps a bit milder, but nope. We're getting the same cold, crisp, and clear conditions as everyone else, just colder!

On the news tonight they mentioned that next weekend will be the anniversary of Storm Desmond and the devastating flooding it caused in parts of north west England, particularly Cumbria.

It seems that we are always very unlucky with the weather here in the NW. Whenever we go through a mild and wet spell we always seem to get the most rain and whenever we go through a cold and dry spell we always seem to get the coldest temperatures. We also get a lot of cool and wet weather in Summer as well. We just can't win it seems...

Even Inverness in the Scottish Highlands is staying milder than us: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2646088
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2652819

I give up.

Give me Madeira - the absolutely perfect climate for me.

You have to be a bit careful with these climate sites though. I looked up Manchester and the minimum temperatures seem a bit on the low side to me.

http://worldweather.wmo.int/en/city.html?cityId=31

If you look on different weather sites of the same place you always get slightly different results so they must all use different data. I also compared Penzance of two different sites, one said they get a high of 22c and a low of 15c in Summer, another said the average high was 19c and low 13c. Anyway, at least you get a general idea of what the weather is like.

The Manchester climate data you linked to is for Woodford (now closed) for 1981-2010 and is exactly what the Met Office site states, so it's correct for Woodford. But Woodford was a rural site, as most climate stations tend to be for obvious reasons. Night time temperatures will therefore be slightly lower on average than urban Greater Manchester *and* the main airport (see below).

They used to use Ringway (Manchester Airport), which was originally very similar climatalogically to Woodford but eventually it became more and more affected by urban development around and to its north, and night minima started to rise by and beyond the 1970s there. I guess the thinking was that Woodford was the next best place but then, it had to close when the BAE aircraft factory and airfield shut down about 5 years ago, so it had to move again! To Rostherne just west of Manchester Airport. Sadly, if HS2 phase 2 goes ahead, they will have to move it yet again because the Rostherne site is exactly where the line will go. I bet they wish they'd kept it where it started off, at Ringway!

Currently down to -2c here at NP in North Buckinghamshire at the moment. This is the coldest temperature since the early hours of 8th March this year. Suggestions it could go down to -7c later in the night around here which I don't remotely expect to occur. Maybe a -3.5c at the very lowest is my estimation.

A good night to stand in the garden in just boots and boxers and take in the cold night air and freshen the body before turning in, but I won't - it's nowhere near freezing enough to enjoy doing that properly!

With no more rain coming this month, my November rainfall is 61mm here, so just a fraction above the average.

Complete switch around between east and west. Here in ni it's currently 5c, this time last week it was -5 in places. But as usual our cold weather last week wasn't mentioned on the weather but all we're hearing now is how cold it is in England.

-2.8c minimum here overnight. Lovely frost this morning too. A good day to begin with a large bowl of oats.

erm... the 8-14 day anomaly chart yesterday showed exactly that. hence my post.

however, they are not being exactly consistent with the placing of the high, so whether we get a true bartlett or not is uncertain.

but there are no signs at all of anything snowy, we will probably get high pressure dominance for the next 2 weeks. but unless this shows signs of migrating to our north (nw-n -ne) then theres no chance of a white crimbo.

so a lot of dry, calm, sunny/frosty - cloudy/dull appears to be on offer for the next two weeks, possibly longer. if we are to get a white crimbo, the anomaly charts will need to move towards suggesting a mean upper flow that would allow one, soon.

Fair enough, the GFS assuming that's your model was flip-flopping between runs I guess. It's back to your scenario again at the moment, beyond 7 days, and has been joined by the Canadian GEM in that, but the ECMWF still has the High over north Germany at its 10 day limit in the midnight run, so we shall see how that pans out. The Met Office model (perhaps wisely) stops at 6 days, so doesn't help much at the moment.

As you suggest, the one thing all models seem to agree on is that for as far ahead as they claim to see, there will be very little if any precipitation, especially over England, frost at night seems likely to continue, and daytimes will be a bit below average.

no, i gave the links to the anomaly charts i use... not the gfs... the noaa ones.

night time frosts will only persist if we get clear skies, tv graphics suggest itll be cloudy from tomorrow.