i got the links to the anomaly charts (noaa ones) from netweather, but it was member john holmes, an ex pro weatherman who researched the accuracy of the anomaly charts. he found that the 6-10 day chart was 60%-80% accurate when consistent over several runs for getting the mean upper flow correct, the 8-14 day chart 40% - 60% accurate.

they are the most accurate for that timeframe, is what he found, and i respect experienced knowledgeable people - but ive followed these charts ever since and i must agree that they are the best way of discovering the mean flow and consequently the range of weather types we are likely to get.

i think the predictions ive made on here over the last 6 months or so bare this out... indeed i first mentioned a possible mild or very mild several days ago, based on the anomaly charts. - look now whats in the forecast for next week..... mild or very mild.

I am starting to trust your predictions

You forecasted an upcoming mild spell when the Met Office forecasters were vacillating between dry and rather cold, to possibly very cold before the middle of the month.

only saying what the anomaly charts are suggesting, like i said, they are the most accurate model for predicting the mean charts. they might have gone cold, i did say they were close to a 'big freeze', but they failed to suggest the last bit of the jigsaw would fall into place. northern europe though DID cop for a cold spell.

This weekend looks to be cool and sunny, with a frost possible Saturday night/Sunday morning. Then after Monday it starts to get milder with temperatures possibly reaching double figures here Wednesday Thursday.

So the outlook for next week for my part of the country at least is milder and cloudy next week with an increased risk of rain.

BTW, it actually rained briefly at around 9pm tonight. Only a bit of light rain. So it's been the first time it's rained since a week last Tuesday. Quite impressive for a traditionally damp and rainy county like ours. Also been threatening a bit today but nothing happened. Just typical Lancashire weather, that's all, trying to convince you that it's gonna pour down... Cheeky bugger.

Not sure you can ever really describe weather in the UK during December as "cool" Steffan.

As far as I interpret the meaning of the word cool it denotes fresher and simply less warm conditions after a warmer or hot period, typically in later spring, summer or early autumn.

Thanks for the weather info MushymanRob. The impending milder conditions better clear off again because the last thing I want in 3 weeks time is another mild Christmas this year.

cheers

tbh though i doubt if something cold will evolve by then. the atlantic pattern is set to establish by the end of the week after a very mild spell. we all know that once a pattern like this ensues, its hard to shift. so the odds must favour a westerly unsettled and mild/average regime through the month.

chances of a white crimbo = 0% atm. (there is time though for a change)

I meant "cool" as in temperatures will be average - slightly below average this weekend. For my area, this will be around 5-7c. If the high was less than 5c, then I'd call it cold and sunny or cold and crisp for example.

Our perceptions of temperature change throughout the year, depending on the season and what sort of weather we've been having lately. For example, while 12c and cloudy would feel very cool in Summer, the same conditions would feel very mild in December.

And just what's wrong with a mild xmas?? It never snows at xmas anyway so just what is the point? I'd much prefer it to be say 10c and cloudy than all this cold and frost we've been having lately. Waking up on a dark freezing cold morning when youre half asleep is no fun at all... I've actually enjoyed the milder and cloudier conditions this week. And its set to get milder next week after a brief spell of colder weather this weekend. Long may it continue.

Agree with the first bit - hard to shift but you could say that based on climatology and be right more often than not at this time of year. It's a risky business predicting even the general circulation 14 days ahead, never mind 21.


Yep, it could all change, so I'd say there's a 10% -ish chance of seeing the lesser-spotted snowflake in lowland England, like many other uncommon weather types, but higher in Scotland and I'm sure we'll all keep an eye on that cold air over northern Scandinavia that you mentioned.

I'd agree with that. I much prefer a windy mild South Westerly pattern in Winter.

Been Dull and Cloudy here all day despite the forecast predicting sunshine/sunny intervals. Not seen a glimpse of sun of blue sky. At least it hasn't rained. Been really gloomy for the past hour and streetlamps have now come on.

A vote here for a sunny, clear and cold Xmas period!

The last thing I want during the Christmas period, is mild, damp and icky weather. Therefore, I'm hoping for the return of the clear blue skies, winter sunshine and the crisp coldness.

It's amazing how a lovely anticyclonic November with sunshine, clear skies, frost and fog has suddenly given way to the horrid murk, mist and low cloud coming in from the atlantic as soon as we have moved into December which likely we will not see the end of it until at least March.

On netweather forum the discussions were saying all respected mets predicted a mainly cold anticyclonic winter, but suddenly now it looks usual mainly mild cyclonic one once again even though right now it's still mainly on the dry side.

However I just noticed a pressure chart for 9th November showing the mid Atlantic green rather than the usual yellow or orange, so maybe it won't be ridiculously mild this winter even if it's raining accompanied by a strong south westerly wind and mist.

Last November and December were horrendous. I hope the UK doesn't go through 2 months in a row as bad as those around this time of year ever again. And there have been plenty of mild, very wet late Autumn and winter months as it is over the last 20 years as it is.

At least this November has been a normal November this time around. I was hoping that the Scandinavian high would stick around and develop to keep the UK in blue skies in December even if it's -4C to -8C overnight under clear skies or very dense fog. Hope it comes back again rather than the PV and Iberian High or Bartlett dictating things completely for almost the whole of the next 3 months once again.

Felt quite mild up here today but due to dullness became dark about 4 o'clock, which seemed like from day to night in a few minutes. Just by the feeling right now temperatures have dropped sharply at 7 o'clock to 5 degrees but feels colder. It was only about 7 degrees outside today, but didn't feel as cold as this - strange. Temperatures set to fall during the night to minus 3 degrees.

I recall Michael Fish on the BBC forecasts saying 6 to 8 degrees C, the mid 40's farenheiht was mild at this time of year in the late 1970's and 1980's.

Now it's up to 10 to 12 degrees C that's classed as mild at this time of year by the BBC weather forecasters.

13 to 15 degrees C in the future, then 17 or 18 degrees C? I don't ever recall temperatures of 15 or 16 degrees C in December in the UK being forecast by the BBC weather team back in the 1970's to 1990's when they were very popular. I hope things never get as bad as that with the UK's winter weather.

Was it only a perception when Fish, Bill Giles and Ian McCaskill mentioned anything below 10 degrees C as being mild back in the day.

Oh come on, lighten up people!

What's soooo bad about a bit of milder weather in Deecember??

Its way better than frost and cold.

Its forecast to reach 12c here by Wednesday with a SSW wind. Lovely and warm. There is an increased risk of some rain of course but it doesn't look to be anything too bad at this stage.

Yes it may look miserable and cloudy but that cloud acts like a super thick duvet keeping the warmth in. Much prefer it to this bitterly cold and frosty sleety weather we've had for much of November. Not very nice at all..

And what's the point of sunshine and blue sky's if its going to be freezing cold...??

And David, just to let you know, NYC and many other places in the US got above 70F (21C) last December so it could of been worse.... Unlike some of us though they actually appreciated it rather than loathed it...

http://abc7ny.com/weather/surfers-hi...-ever/1134498/

http://abc11.com/weather/why-is-it-7...ember/1120290/

http://wtop.com/local/2015/12/winter...t-even-warmer/


https://m.youtube.com/results?q=mild...0december&sm=3






Might see some daffodils before the end of the month if we're lucky, and I might even get to mow the lawn in shorts!

It's been mild all week here in NI and set to get even milder next week 11/12c forecast next week. It's been extremely dry though, we had the driest November for quiet a few years last month and December is following the same trend. I remember this time last year, constant heavy winds and rain. We've not had our first winter storm yet.

well im afraid youre likely to be out of luck.

once the jet has kicked in across the uk, ill be surprised if it goes anywhere fast.

ill take a punt..... i expect the coming unsettled spell to last into the new year, only in later january will we get a more anticyclonic, blocked, cold spell.

ok, thats a fairly safe punt as its pretty much 'normal'. but that is how im beginning to see this winter panning out.

Same here today too. Went walking in the Yorkshire Dales today. High was forecast to be about 6c and Sunny/Sunny inteverals.
I was wearing t-shirt, fleece, waterproof jacket, and some black stretchy type trousers. It was quite chilly this morning.

However, when I started walking, my circulation got going, and I soon warmed up. As a result, I took off my jacket, and then at lunchtime, I changed into my black shorts! Felt quite good actually, the fresh countryside air and low December sunshine shinging on my bare legs. Saw a few other men in shorts today, some were walkers/cyclists, others just casually mulling around town. Felt milder than what the actual temperature was. Wasn't quite mild enough to take off my fleece however!

However, as the sun set and night fell, the temperature seemed to drop like a stone. I got quite chilly about 4pm, so in the loo I chanaged back into my trousers and put my waterproof jacket back on. I even needed my wooly hat as well. The temperature then was about 4/5c, but it actually felt colder.

I always seem to get colder at night, even if the temperature doesn't cool down that much. Even in Summer when it's been a hot day and in the evening it's cooled down to about 16c or so, and I'm out in my t-shirt, I can feel quite chilly and it's taken quite a brisk walk for at least 15 minutes till I've warmed up. I've felt quite chilly many a time on a summer night even when wearing a fleece.

Maybe it's because the humidity increases at night (which is actually supposed to make it feel colder at lower temperatures), maybe it's becuase I'm tireder then, maybe it's because there's no sunlight, maybe it's a physiclogical thing (no daylight = must be cold) who knows??

Maybe someone on here may know the answer??

Could be 14 degrees by Thursday.......

......not that I get too enthusiastic, but YEEESSSS !!!

Wow you're lucky then. 11c and light rain/drizzle forecast for Thursday here. Still, I'm not complaing.

Could be worse...

Spain is getting all the bad weather meant for us at this time of year. http://www.euroweeklynews.com/3.0.15...espread-floods

Maybe so but they're getting much warmer weather than us. After Monday it looks pretty good actually. Similar to a typical summer pattern here.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2514256

no joy for those hoping for a cold snowy run up to crimbo

still no sign at all of a true cold wintry spell.

Indeed the Yorkshire Dales saw a massive dip in temperature last night, as temperatures reached 7c during the afternoon but rapidly dropped after 3pm plunging to freezing before 8pm and reaching a low of -2.6c overnight.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...tion/gcwgq83gw


For comparison, at home temperatures didn't get as high during the day but stayed above freezing overnight.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...tion/gcw6h8p0c