Well as it's still 2-3 weeks away, there wouldn't be, and if there was, it would probably change. But history does of course tell us that there's an 80% to 90% chance there won't be snow on Christmas day, depending on where in the UK you live. There wasn't even Christmas snow falling in the oft quoted December 2010 in the far south of England, not on Christmas Eve or Boxing Day either (though it was extremely cold).

Snow lovers like me would do better to visit the Highlands of Scotland to improve our chances but I tend to leave that until Easter.

oh c'mon man ...... youre long in the tooth enough to know that real cold spells that produce snow dont just happen overnight as a rule. the synoptic pattern needed builds up over a period of time. so yes, IF there was going to be a cold snowy spell over crimbo the famous 'building blocks' would be starting to be manifest now... we can see into the future enough to be reasonably confident that those building blocks are simply not in evidence, and time is running out.

snowy crimbos of 1981, 2010, had already started by now in some form.

My vote is for mild but fairly dry. Enough to keep the golf courses unfrozen but certainly not like last year when most of them were soaked and sodden.

A dense freezing fog has descended here in North Bucks tonight, with a temperature at precisely 0.0c as I write and looking like going minus any moment. There are currently some quite big differences across England with very mild conditions well into double figures in the south west and temperatures elsewhere in the midlands and north already below freezing by a couple of degrees.

Long in the tooth you can say that again!

But in 2010 the snowy spell ended before Christmas Day apart from what was left over on the ground (admittedly a lot, albeit barely a patch here). And the famous 1962-3 winter didn't even start until Boxing Day IIRC (and yes I do recall!) so even that wasn't a snowy Christmas Day in England.

I'll agree that snow on Christmas Day is unlikely but that's because of climatology, not weather forecasting. A frosty Christmas morning is entirely possible, however, as is a pleasant mild and dry day. I'll have another look at it next week though.

Incidentally, I notice that the Canadian GEM model has started to suggest high pressure over England again by the middle of next week, for a couple of recent operational runs now, and although it's alone at the moment, HP is never far away from southern England on any of the models.

What about the run up to 1970?

The met office definition of a white Christmas always seems bizarre to me. All it takes to be a white one is for a single snowflake to be observed falling on the roof of their building at some point during the 25th December. Not very white to me. Yet there could be a level 2 feet of lying white snow as far as they eye can see on Christmas Day but if no snowflakes fall from the sky then it's not a white Christmas.

Yes rather daft that, 2010 was a prime example of this. It's the only Christmas I've known with snow on the ground here in ni even though it wasn't classed as a white Christmas

Isn't this just to satisfy the needs of the betting industry for a rigorous and unambiguous definition?

........... and the latest anomaly chart for 8-14 day DOES start to shift the high towards scandinavia, so maybe a cold spell, even snow, isnt a closed door just yet!

indeed, in another weeks time the anomaly charts will be able to give a good idea as to the upper air pattern for crimbo, and the range of weather types likely.


dont know about the run up to 1970... remember it but not the weather pattern prior to it.

indeed, the met offices definition of a white crimbo is bonkers..... we could see 1 snowflake that doesnt settle and thats a white crimbo whilst we could have 2' of lying snow, but no snowfall, and thats not a white crimbo.... utterly ridiculous.

December has always been a fourth autumn month - 2010 in recent years as an exception,it is often mild.

I do think we will get a cold winter, but I don't think anything such as snow will happen until January or February. People do forget, the last cold winter of 2012-3 had a mild December, and it wasn't until the final few days of 2012 it kicked in and the less said about the long winter the better.

2015/6 was a freak winter, just as 1962/3 and 1978/9 were. I think it'll be one of those winters with mild interludes intercepted with cold ones and some snow ie an average at best which is good enough.

GEM has now been followed by GFS and to a lesser extent ECMWF in its suggestions of HP domination over England at some point next week, though I suspect there is some flip-flopping going on at the moment so anything could happen. None of the models are currently suggesting that it will be a cold High though (if it happens).

i must say..... i love this anticyclonic gloom... quit, cool, calm, dull weather , perfect winter weather for me, it sets off the season lights so well .

for me it has a kind of timeless spiritual quality about it..

Started raining here (Central lowlands) Temperatures will soon be shooting up. Hopefully this mild will push away at one point

2010 was unusual, here on the South Coast of Devon, because of the snow (which then turned to ice)

Getting down the garden path / or driveway, on foot, was extremely precarious.

Our main road and local roads weren't cleared for 4 or 5 days.

When I eventually managed to get the car out to go to Tescos (I got stuck for 10 minutes at bottom of driveway), after 5 days, there was a wasteland of empty shelves.

Delivery Lorries hadn't even been able to get down the M5

In one sense I am pleased it has become a touch milder from today, where it is currently 8.6c now at 7pm compared to almost 0c last night. Because it won't be quite so freezing putting Christmas lights up outside which is my annual task this week. I can't wear gloves doing a fine set of 24 icicles around the front door porch area and it takes at least 90 minutes to 2 hours to intricately tape things into place with a white electric tape. This also has to be taped onto a dry surface so involves wiping all moisture away. With milder conditions the task will not be so numbing on my fingers! Another berry bush I cover is much easier done. It can then get as cold as it likes after I've put them up. I'm pleased conditions aren't going to prove too windy either when I do the task tomorrow evening.


Quelle surprise with Tesco's. I remember back in Christmas week in December 2010 when our family had an online Christmas shopping order due to be delivered by them on 22nd. It had been booked since the last day in November (there was full snow cover that day too). They rang up on the day to say they were unable to deliver it. Yes the roads were snowy and icy but not impassable. It was unacceptable and an excuse on some kind of feeble health and safety grounds I'd reckon. Luckily I always book two separate deliveries and had Sainsbury's for a day later and they could be relied upon to fulfil their obligations with their customers for Christmas. I'm the same this year, already booked with three online festive food deliveries in the three days before Christmas, just incase of issues. One will likely get cancelled close to the time leaving somebody very happy with a last minute slot.

Huge temperature conditions today across the UK.

Only 1c at Milton but 15c at Ballycastle. Wherever that is..

Of course the South West see the mildest conditions where temps have stayed in double figures all day and night.

Scotland could also experience bery mild temperatures due to the Foehn effect.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38223614



UK Cold Spots[LIST=1][*] 1 Milton 1°C[*] 2 Bradford 4°C[*] 3 Huddersfield 4°C[*] 4 Doncaster 5°C[*] 5 Syderstone 5°C[/LIST]UK Hot Spots[LIST=1][*] 1 Ballycastle 15°C[*] 2 Leeds 12°C[*] 3 Gilberdyke 12°C[*] 4 Boscombe Down 12°C[*] 5 Aldershot 11°C[/LIST]

Also very strange how leeds and huddersfield have very different tempertures despite being relaitvely near to each other...

There are more signs of High blocking at least over England or the North Sea and near continent next week, it's now showing up in several runs in all the main models. No sign of COLD advection around the block just yet, just a break from the forthcoming SWesterlies, which may not last more than a week this time round, at least in England.

Frostiness next week would depend on cloudiness and it's too soon to say about that, but unless widespread fog develops, I'll take more dryish weather like that with my pre-Christmas shopping! Have to admit that now, I'm starting to lean towards a boring dryish 'nothing' December now, I can recall a few of those in the past and they are, well, boring. Once my Christmas shopping is done, I want it to be interesting!

They are just doing the weather on BBC Breakfast and Carol said that at this time yesterday in Inverness it was minus two

At the moment it is 13, just 24 hours later

Crazy

Currently 13c also here in NI, were predicted to have our warmest December day on record if we beat 16c

double post

yep..... and my earlier utterings about the atlantic kicking in and producing a prolonged unsettled spell look like being comprehensively proven wrong!

the anomaly charts didnt pick up on the high pressure build as quickly as they usually do, but both charts now support high pressure dominance just to our east by midweek next.

WILL IT SNOW?

currently no... but IF the high drifts towards scandinavia (which is often the usual evolution), and pressure drops over southern europe/Mediterranean, with the jet diving into iberia/western med, then we could pick up a potent enough easterly to produce snow showers.

so a white crimbo isnt on the cards, but isnt as far away as it was just a couple of days ago...

14C and rising in NI. If it hits 16C it'll be an all time record here for December.

17C at Hawarden in NE Wales in the lee of the mountains, I haven't seen it this high anywhere else but not everywhere is listed in the airport METARs.

Not a record yet.

Currently 12c, cloudy and murky here in Lancs, so typical mild December weather.

Some rain possibly heavy forecast here for laster this evening, though none so far yet...

Looking at the rain forecast from the met the north west is looking to receive the most rainfall (how unusual) while the band of rain is tantilizingingly close to the South West yet doesn't quite reach it.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/will-it-...ime=1481086800



Why is it whenever there's a mild spell the north west always seems to get the most rain??