its mild all the way this week, with the high to our east trying to make it further north. maybe some colder air will make it here IF the high shifts far enough north..... tbh its most likely track is to end up over scandinavia, so chances of cold must be tenetively promising. theres still time for it to get cold by crimbo...

but as d@ve says we need the jet to kink and even split. if it heads towards iberia, then pressure might drop over southern europe and the high can drift to settle over scandinavia.

so reasonable chances for later in the month for cold, but mild and unsettled most of this week.

Indeed, but currently all three main models that go to 10 days are suggesting high pressure dominating the southern UK by the end of next week and that weekend. Not a 'cold' high though, at least initially. The UK Met Office model has the High over southern Scandinavia next Friday though, far enough east and south for a mild southerly to dominate the UK but if *that* is right and is a bit further north... well who knows?

Need the UK Met model to fall into line with the other three, and another run from all, to be confident about next weekend's 'mild' High over England.

Polar vortex over North America again, just as in 2014. Considerable accumulations of lake effect snow over upstate New York. Temperatures expected to plunge imminently.

Extreme cold at present, over nearby Canada - look at the temperatures in Winnipeg for example. Exceptional, even by their standards.

Similar cold to that which affected central England on this equivalent weekend 35 years ago this week back in 1981 when it was widely lower than -20c and hit the remarkable depths of -25c in Shropshire. Not to forget the magnificent deep widespread lying snow. I'd just begun keeping a diary at the time aged twelve and wrote weather info in it including this event.

Meanwhile today is the worst kind of filthy wet, mild and drab conditions I cannot stand. The temperature has also remained an absolute constant here at 11c since midnight, no change whatsoever by night then day, what little we've had. Exceptional dullness here with every street light fully on before 3.30pm this afternoon and 6mm in the rain gauge so far.

It's been a bit cooler here but mainly dry through the day, still cloudy though. It's been about 9/10c today. Visibility today has been pretty poor with plenty of hill fog and that damp drab feel we typically get in Lancashire due to the damp air here. Sky cleared a bit as it went dark and it got quite chilly by nightfall. Was dry but was threatening a bit as it went dark, had some light rain between about 4:30-6pm.
Started going dark here not long after 3pm, first streetlights came on about 3.30pm, with all streetlights on by 4pm. Full darkness here before 5pm.

Huge swathe of rain covering an area from pretty much the South coast to South Yorkshire. However, a clearance has now reached West Wales and the extreme South West of England. As forecasted the Midlands and Wales has borne the brunt.

20mm of rain out of that deluge in the end here in North Bucks. Far more substantial than I anticipated today, making it one of the top ten wettest days of 2016 here. A sudden drop in temperature as the back end of the rain passed through from the steady 11c of the past 24 hours down to 7c now.

Indeed. Possibly more rain than was anticipated.

Very well defined back edge to the rain band, with clear skies behind.

interestingly the anomaly charts suggest more of a continental influence by next weekend, with a southerly or southeasterly draft likely especially for southern areas.

drier and colder then?

the 8-14 day chart has made a possibly significant shift, by suggesting pressure over the azores is likely to drop. a move towards the southern european low/scandinavian high pattern needed for some real easterly cold.

assuming further runs support this or even progress this, then after a mild unsettled week it should dry up, cool, down, and get much colder in time for crimbo... snow?... well unlikely, but if the charts get a move on a white crimbo cannot be completely ruled out.

tbh, im guessing the real cold wont arrive until after crimbo... but all this could change this far off.

Cloudy, very gloomy, depressing and breezy weather here today. Hi of 8c, and feeling colder than yesterday. At least its not raining though...

All depends on the exact position of the predicted anticyclone of course, but HP seems to be the strong favourite to be in control by next weekend. Even if it stays "too far south", anticyclonic weather with a continental influence would likely lead to gradually dropping temperatures at least in England, so it could well end up cold even by day, in many places (<6 degrees C these days probably counts as cold in the south!).

As for Christmas weekend, I've no idea and I don't think the models have either, so we shall see.

Weather Extremes for Saturday 10-12-2016

Max Temp: St. James's Park (Greater London) 14C
Min Temp: Fyvie Castle (Aberdeenshire) 2C
Wettest: Chivenor (Devon) 23.0mm

Some outbreaks of rain here tomorrow afternoon. Maximum Temperature 7c.

Weather for North West England in the coming week:



Tonight
Lo 5
Partly Cloudy
Wind SSW


Monday
Hi 8/7 Lo 8
Outbreaks of Rain in the afternoon
Wind SE


Tuesday
Hi 8 Lo 7
Cloudy
Wind ESE


Wednesday
Hi 10/11 Lo 7
Cloudy but Sunny Spells possible
Wind S


Thursday
Hi 8 Lo 5
Cloudy
Wind S


Friday
Hi 7 Lo 2
Cloudy, Rain possible
Wind S


Quite a dull and dreary week really, with plenty of cloud and outbreaks of rain at times.

Wednesday is looking like the best day, with the mildest temperature of the week and a possibility of some sunny spells.


Temperatures mostly staying in single figures despite Southerly winds.

Interesting but I think many places must have been around this figure during Saturday, as I recorded 20mm as previously said. My reading goes from midnight to midnight, so is the day proper, but some of these readings like from the Met Office go from 9pm to 9pm I think, which I've never liked. This means a wet evening on one day appears as if it happened on the following day instead. Not sure why they record like this, rather than the logical midnight to the following midnight.

Did anyone else enjoy the spectacular sunset on Sunday afternoon? In this area the sun was out and as it lowered in the sky around 4pm there were some lovely reds and purples and even when it had become quite dark around 4.30pm in the south west the sky held onto a striking orange colour in the distance against the nearer almost blackened sky. Always worth taking a few moments to stop and enjoy such spectacles.

Didn't notice anything yesterday, but whenever I do see a spectacular sky, I take a pic. Never looks as good on a photo as in real time to the eye, actuality, though. The deep colour contrasts don't seem to be captured, unfortunately.

i think the anomaly charts do know the general pattern.

they are consistent in suggesting a mean upper southwesterly flow, with the azores high centred west of the azores, and high pressure over central southern europe.

there no northerly, no easterly, no northwesterly. other then a possible transitory blast. no 'big freeze' and no snow.

a mean upper southwesterly would strongly suggest surface winds from anywhere between west and south.

so mild and unsettled is most likely. of course this isnt yet nailed, things might change, and the exact position and strength of the euro high will depend on rain/wind amounts.

the anomaly charts suggest the euro high will not establish over scandinavia, as i suggested it might in my previous post. not yet anyway, its still possible and going on experience, likely. but the 8-14 day anomaly chart refuses to suggest this evolution.

Ex BBC weatherman Ian McCaskill has died at the age of 78, after suffering dementia for the last 5 years - link

RIP

More gloomy, miserable, cold and damp conditions today. One of my least favourite weather type. Max temp only 7/8c. Had a hot chocolate as it was going dark in a café which was nice.

We haven't seen a single glimpse of the sun here since November.

Very sad to hear the news tonight that one of the BBC's best ever weathermen Ian McCaskill has passed away.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38294661

Agreed. I just posted the same at post #1893.

I remember he always said stuff like "Hello, well on tonight's chart we've got this lovely big area of high pressure moving in just in time for the bank holiday" or such like, in that enthusiastic, slightly breathless, Scottish accent.

Great guy with a big personality.

Yes, I posted first and then read your own comment.

One of his forecasts in the last days of the old magnetic symbols in 1984 - https://youtu.be/iMHeVCck49o?t=22s

Spitting Image mimicking Ian, proving how famous he was - https://youtu.be/43F7qJTmRFs

Can you imagine any of the current bunch getting mimicked like this nowadays. Mostly personality vacuum's.


......and here's one of Ian's BBC forecasts from early February 1991 with a set up it would be nice to see begin to develop about a week from now. I recall it well and had a brand new camcorder at the time and still have the video's I shot of the weather early that month. I recall when we got snow in February 2009 they cited it as the heaviest nationally for 18 years since this 1991 forecast. Look at those temperatures even by day everywhere.

https://youtu.be/Hd6DuebHliY

I remember him... he was one of my favourite weather forecasters. RIP

Quite. As I said, they don't know and neither do we! Rather cold to mild rather than very cold has always been the best guess due to climatology and that's still the case. We and they have little idea what the weather or wind strength will be like over Christmas weekend other than as usual, any snow is unlikely.

As for the 14 day range... the few days after Christmas weekend, literally anything could happen as the GFS (the main data source at that range) is flipflopping (12 noon op run had a strong south easterly and a strong High over southern Scandinavia at 14 days, the 6pm run now reverses it to deep low pressure off NW Ireland and a strong south westerly. Flip your coin now, folks.