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Weather Watching - Enthusiasts Thread |
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#1901 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear.
Posts: 4,621
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The Daily Express is at it again with dire warnings for the Christmas weather saying from earlier on tonight saying in so many words, Snowbomb: Wall of snow to smash UK as deadly blizzard hit in coldest freeze for 53 years. How they can publish that and panic the elderly and vulnerable, I just don't know.
Ian. |
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#1902 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,352
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Quote:
The Daily Express is at it again with dire warnings for the Christmas weather saying from earlier on tonight saying in so many words, Snowbomb: Wall of snow to smash UK as deadly blizzard hit in coldest freeze for 53 years. How they can publish that and panic the elderly and vulnerable, I just don't know.
Ian. A couple of weeks ago I was listening to Radio 5 Live's Rhod Sharp on Up All Night and he was talking to BBC's Jay Wynne about the weather. Towards the end of the conversation he asked about festive prospects and then rather foolishly chose to give credence to the rubbish that the Express prints. In an instant you could hear the conversation freeze over. Jay Wynne gave him the silent treatment of contempt and then a withering couple of words of disdain and dismissal. Quite right too. Rhod Sharp should have known a lot better having spent many years talking to Philip Eden in a weather segment every Monday night where Philip often made clear how the media just can't help but twist weather facts out of all proportion to reality for a sheer sensational brief headline. Here's a novel idea, maybe Christmas is going to be utterly average and unremarkable weatherwise. But we can't be having that now can we. There's papers to flog and people to scare needlessly. |
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#1903 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Southern East Anglia
Posts: 75,216
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Quote:
I spoke to my mum earlier this evening and she said she'd just read online an article stating that this Christmas is going to be the warmest ever in the UK. I wish I knew where she read that one. Clearly not the Daily Excess online.
A couple of weeks ago I was listening to Radio 5 Live's Rhod Sharp on Up All Night and he was talking to BBC's Jay Wynne about the weather. Towards the end of the conversation he asked about festive prospects and then rather foolishly chose to give credence to the rubbish that the Express prints. In an instant you could hear the conversation freeze over. Jay Wynne gave him the silent treatment of contempt and then a withering couple of words of disdain and dismissal. Quite right too. Rhod Sharp should have known a lot better having spent many years talking to Philip Eden in a weather segment every Monday night where Philip often made clear how the media just can't help but twist weather facts out of all proportion to reality for a sheer sensational brief headline. Here's a novel idea, maybe Christmas is going to be utterly average and unremarkable weatherwise. But we can't be having that now can we. There's papers to flog and people to scare needlessly. |
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#1904 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 6,736
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Oh well, that's the Boxing Day Snowman contest cancelled then.....
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#1905 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: derby
Posts: 14,740
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Ex BBC weatherman Ian McCaskill has died at the age of 78, after suffering dementia for the last 5 years - link
RIP Quote:
More gloomy, miserable, cold and damp conditions today. One of my least favourite weather type. Max temp only 7/8c. Had a hot chocolate as it was going dark in a café which was nice.
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i think the anomaly charts do know the general pattern.
they are consistent in suggesting a mean upper southwesterly flow, with the azores high centred west of the azores, and high pressure over central southern europe. there no northerly, no easterly, no northwesterly. other then a possible transitory blast. no 'big freeze' and no snow. a mean upper southwesterly would strongly suggest surface winds from anywhere between west and south. so mild and unsettled is most likely. of course this isnt yet nailed, things might change, and the exact position and strength of the euro high will depend on rain/wind amounts. the anomaly charts suggest the euro high will not establish over scandinavia, as i suggested it might in my previous post. not yet anyway, its still possible and going on experience, likely. but the 8-14 day anomaly chart refuses to suggest this evolution. i have said the exact center and strength of the high will determine the exact weather type we get. the latest anomaly charts have shifted slightly in favour of a much chillier spell next week, and they suggest theres one foot in the door for a big freeze.. by suggesting the eastern high over europe will be just a few hundred miles further north, it opens the door for pressure drop over the med/southern europe. this then gives us a continental feed instead of a southwesterly. minor changes, large impact. the 8-13 day chart sticks with the mean upper southwesterly over the crimbo period, but this chart isnt as reliable as the 6-10 day chart and its that chart that builds the high significantly enough to produce an easterly. imho, its interesting times, with either a mild southwesterly or a cold easterly being the most likely crimbo pattern. it really is down to how the high will behave in 10 days time, both options are viable. |
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#1906 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Darn Sarf
Posts: 28,729
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imho, its interesting times, with either a mild southwesterly or a cold easterly being the most likely crimbo pattern. it really is down to how the high will behave in 10 days time, both options are viable.
The model runs are still flipflopping today, so we still don't know about Christmas weekend. GFS and ECMWF in the 12 noon run show a building 1040 Mb High over central European Russia late next week, with very cold air drifting down its eastern flank which could turn towards western Europe on its southern flank if it develops. The Canadian GEM for the same time period builds that same Russian High astonishingly to 1060 Mb and is a bit further north, with the really cold air already pushing into other Eastern Europe countries. That's our best chance of a wintry spell over or after Christmas, but the GEM may have over-egged the pudding. So until we see more consistency between runs and models, I won't be betting my house on it - certainly not beyond 10 days and even 7 days is iffy at the moment IMO as next weekend's High could develop some proper homegrown cold near the surface, it's happened before. |
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#1907 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear.
Posts: 4,621
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Quote:
The Daily Express is at it again with dire warnings for the Christmas weather saying from earlier on tonight saying in so many words, Snowbomb: Wall of snow to smash UK as deadly blizzard hit in coldest freeze for 53 years. How they can publish that and panic the elderly and vulnerable, I just don't know.
Ian. Ian. |
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#1908 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: North West England
Posts: 1,810
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Mild, damp and wet here tonight. We've had a band of rain this morning, followed by another this evening. I find the weather apps on my phone to be somewhat unreliable when predicting rainfall. While they're pretty good at predicting changes in temperature they tend to be quite inaccurate when predicting rain as I've found out....
You can see on the rainfall map how it's mainly affecting north-west England again... http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ Tonight it was forecast to be dry until heavy rain arrived at 9pm, so I thought I'd be okay as I'd be back home by 8pm. Set off at 6pm, quite mild, bit of fog and drizzle. Just as the weather predicted - fog and high humidity - that's what was causing it I thought... But then when I set off at 7.30pm back home in my jeans and hoodie - I saw rain falling in the car headlights - "grrrr.... You're not supposed to arrive till 9 O' Clock" I thought... It wasn't exactly heavy but not light either, steady moist fine rain. I got fair soaked, including my face. At least the hoodie kept my hair dry though! Had to take off my clothes when I got into the house and get into PJ's. ![]() On Monday I looked at the BBC Weather App for both my place of departure and place of arrival - both said rain from 1:00pm all through the afternoon, heavy at first, turning to drizzle later. But again the rain had arrived early, as alough the early morning started off nice it soon clouded over and started raining by 11am. So I put my raincoat on when I set off at 1pm, expecting rain, but guess what, none at all that afternoon... And on that mild and wet day, Friday, that was the worst.... Well it was 12c and cloudy, raining, not constant rain, that on and off stuff, through most of the morning and afternoon. I had been checking Friday's weather the previous day and heavy rain was forecast from the mid-afternoon to late evening. I have football practise outdoors on Friday night 8-9pm outdoors on the astro. That afternoon I was pondering whether to go, so of course I checked the weather apps. Nice and mild I thought, but with the possibility of getting absolutely drenched outside I didn't want to chance it.... BBC Weather and other apps said rain till at least 10pm, and heavy rain during the period I would be outside in the elements. So I thought, forget it, better to have a nice night in front of the tv watching Mr Khan rather than playing football in a muddy field in the pouring rain. But at 8pm, I peeped my head out the bathroom window, not a drop of rain! It has stopped... There was no more as far as I could tell the rest of the evening either... So I would have been fine out there in my t-shirt and shorts on a nice mild dry night but I missed it... I was soooo gutted.. ![]() I always have this problem, can never trust the weather to forecast rain properly here in rainy north west England and always end up either caught out in it or overdressing or missing outdoor activities then it turns out to be fine. Doesn't matter if it's Winter or Summer there's always the possibility of rain here. It's actually worse in Summer because it's warm so I try and avoid wearing waterproofs as much as possible, but when it's hot outside and your in a t-shirt and shorts to try and cool down that's when the rain is most likely to strike. It's happened many times there's been a hot spell and everyone's outside in their summer clothes then suddenly it decides to chuck it down and everyone gets soaked.
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#1909 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Novelty Island
Posts: 2,532
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Quote:
Mild, damp and wet here tonight. We've had a band of rain this morning, followed by another this evening. I find the weather apps on my phone to be somewhat unreliable when predicting rainfall. While they're pretty good at predicting changes in temperature they tend to be quite inaccurate when predicting rain as I've found out....
You can see on the rainfall map how it's mainly affecting north-west England again... http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ Tonight it was forecast to be dry until heavy rain arrived at 9pm, so I thought I'd be okay as I'd be back home by 8pm. Set off at 6pm, quite mild, bit of fog and drizzle. Just as the weather predicted - fog and high humidity - that's what was causing it I thought... But then when I set off at 7.30pm back home in my jeans and hoodie - I saw rain falling in the car headlights - "grrrr.... You're not supposed to arrive till 9 O' Clock" I thought... It wasn't exactly heavy but not light either, steady moist fine rain. I got fair soaked, including my face. At least the hoodie kept my hair dry though! Had to take off my clothes when I got into the house and get into PJ's. ![]() On Monday I looked at the BBC Weather App for both my place of departure and place of arrival - both said rain from 1:00pm all through the afternoon, heavy at first, turning to drizzle later. But again the rain had arrived early, as alough the early morning started off nice it soon clouded over and started raining by 11am. So I put my raincoat on when I set off at 1pm, expecting rain, but guess what, none at all that afternoon... And on that mild and wet day, Friday, that was the worst.... Well it was 12c and cloudy, raining, not constant rain, that on and off stuff, through most of the morning and afternoon. I had been checking Friday's weather the previous day and heavy rain was forecast from the mid-afternoon to late evening. I have football practise outdoors on Friday night 8-9pm outdoors on the astro. That afternoon I was pondering whether to go, so of course I checked the weather apps. Nice and mild I thought, but with the possibility of getting absolutely drenched outside I didn't want to chance it.... BBC Weather and other apps said rain till at least 10pm, and heavy rain during the period I would be outside in the elements. So I thought, forget it, better to have a nice night in front of the tv watching Mr Khan rather than playing football in a muddy field in the pouring rain. But at 8pm, I peeped my head out the bathroom window, not a drop of rain! It has stopped... There was no more as far as I could tell the rest of the evening either... So I would have been fine out there in my t-shirt and shorts on a nice mild dry night but I missed it... I was soooo gutted.. ![]() I always have this problem, can never trust the weather to forecast rain properly here in rainy north west England and always end up either caught out in it or overdressing or missing outdoor activities then it turns out to be fine. Doesn't matter if it's Winter or Summer there's always the possibility of rain here. It's actually worse in Summer because it's warm so I try and avoid wearing waterproofs as much as possible, but when it's hot outside and your in a t-shirt and shorts to try and cool down that's when the rain is most likely to strike. It's happened many times there's been a hot spell and everyone's outside in their summer clothes then suddenly it decides to chuck it down and everyone gets soaked. ![]() |
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#1910 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Darn Sarf
Posts: 28,729
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Quote:
BBC Weather and other apps said...
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#1911 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: derby
Posts: 14,740
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Quote:
You could have just said that you pretty well agree with my post 1900 yesterday evening.
The model runs are still flipflopping today, so we still don't know about Christmas weekend. GFS and ECMWF in the 12 noon run show a building 1040 Mb High over central European Russia late next week, with very cold air drifting down its eastern flank which could turn towards western Europe on its southern flank if it develops. The Canadian GEM for the same time period builds that same Russian High astonishingly to 1060 Mb and is a bit further north, with the really cold air already pushing into other Eastern Europe countries. That's our best chance of a wintry spell over or after Christmas, but the GEM may have over-egged the pudding. So until we see more consistency between runs and models, I won't be betting my house on it - certainly not beyond 10 days and even 7 days is iffy at the moment IMO as next weekend's High could develop some proper homegrown cold near the surface, it's happened before. |
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#1912 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Darn Sarf
Posts: 28,729
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Quote:
Quite. As I said, they don't know and neither do we! Rather cold to mild rather than very cold has always been the best guess due to climatology and that's still the case. We and they have little idea what the weather or wind strength will be like over Christmas weekend other than as usual, any snow is unlikely
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yep, agreed.... models seem to be struggling to nail the behaviour of next weeks high. its exact position, orientation, strength, is crucial to whether we get an easterly sourced draft or southwesterly. it really is knife edge stuff. but deep cold/snow looks unlikely.
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#1913 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: derby
Posts: 14,740
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Quote:
Well now we know a bit more ... the models seem to be in unison now for a rather cold SW-W regime over Christmas weekend, followed by some milder weather and with rain around and windy at times. Snow or snow showers seems possible at least over high ground in the north, especially on Christmas Eve but we shall see. No deep cold or easterlies anyway but it will *feel* cold in the wind at times and we won't know the timing of precipitation for a few days yet and of course at 7 day's range, there is still time for a change.
pity really, im not a cold lover but as previously mentioned, would sooner get it now rather then later. |
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#1914 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,352
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People's definition of cold seems to vary. Currently it's 5.1c, to me that's the limit of what I personally define as cold.
Ideally for me Christmas daytime maximum temperatures would not be above 5c, and I'd prefer them hovering around freezing. But I really can't abide anything in double figures which is on a par with a heatwave at this time of year to me. If not a white Christmas then I'd settle for a decent white hoar frost lingering all day which would suffice just lovely. Those conditions can look more pleasing than snow. |
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#1915 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 76,816
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8C in London but it feels quite mild
Thick fog and no wind probably makes it feels warmer I can't see the tops of the nearby buildings out of my window..............
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#1916 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Southern East Anglia
Posts: 75,216
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8C in London but it feels quite mild
Thick fog and no wind probably makes it feels warmer I can't see the tops of the nearby buildings out of my window.............. ![]() Personally, I'm pleased that no snow is yet on the horizon. The longer we are without it, and the milder it is, the better I like it. Ideally Christmas Day will be bright, breezy and very mild. That would be perfect for me
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#1917 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 76,816
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Will probably brighten up later today. Hopefully before dark.
Personally, I'm pleased that no snow is yet on the horizon. The longer we are without it, and the milder it is, the better I like it. Ideally Christmas Day will be bright, breezy and very mild. That would be perfect for me ![]() but I don't want to go out in this fog ..............it can't be good for you ! |
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#1918 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: North West England
Posts: 1,810
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Not Posted for a few days...
Hi everyone.
Don't know about you but haven't been able to post on here for a few days, whenever I've pressed the "Post Reply" button it is I'm not allowed to access the page for some reason. Could've posted on the "Looks like we're in for another mild, damp and drizzly Xmas" thread but oh well. Was even thinking about starting a new weather thread and could well have started it today had other people not started posting yesterday and I still couldn't post on here. Anyway, looks like normal service is resumed. ![]() I'm sure you'd all love to hear about how the weathers been around me this week... ![]() This is what I would've posted on the following days had I been able to post... Tuesday, 11:00am: Finally a bit of sunshine here this morning! :O :O It started off dull and murky as usual but now the clouds have broken allowing the sun to actually make it's first appearance this December :O :O :O It's been skiving waaaaaaaaay too much lately. ![]() Current temperature 8c. Tuesday, 3:00pm Clouded over a bit now, but still remaining dry. Possibility of some rain tonight. BBC Weather app says fog this evening then some drizzle/light rain later followed by heavy rain at 9pm. Tuesday, 5:30pm Just opened bathroom window and it's drizzling a bit, but the weather shouldn't be too bad tonight..... Tuesday, 8:30pm Ugh, how wrong was I? Just a bit of very light drizzle when I left the house at 6, but when I set off home at 7:30pm, was it dry? Nope, raining. I thought "Oh no, not again" when I saw rain in the car headlights outside. Wasn't too heavy, but it was that moist fine rain that soaks you through. My jeans were wet, my hoodie was wet, had to hang them up to dry when I got in. My face got wet also. At least my head was dry though as I had my hood up. Wednesday, 12:00pm Today is the mildest, driest and sunniest day today. Max temperature of 10 or 11c is possible. Sunny at the moment. Wednesday, 3:30pm Nice sunset tonight. Temperature reached about 11c today. Temperature about 9/10c now. Youtuber Scott Richards recorded a high of 13c today in Manchester : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJIhR6CWFAw&t=9s He also recorded a high of 14c on the 7th but it wasn't as sunny: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfEslGsluoM Forecast to go back to being dull and cloudy tomorrow. Thursday, 4:30pm Yup, back to the usual dull and overcast skies today. At least it's fairly mild for the time of year though and remaining dry so far... Max temperature 9c. Heard a bit of patter on the roof so it's probably raining. DJ on the local Radio this afternoon said we may get a bit of on/off rain tonight but all rain should stop by 6pm. So we'll have to wait and see. ![]() Thursday, 8:00pm Yup, it's raining. Grrrr... Knew I couldn't trust him. Dave advised me to listen to a human forecaster and I did but they still didn't get it right!Friday, 5:00pm Temperature same as yesterday (9c) but with clearer skies and more sunshine. Started off a bit foggy and murky but still cleared up. Remaining dry. Saturday (Today), 12:00pm Some Sunny spells forecast today but none to be seen so far.. It was foggy again this morning but that has mostly cleared now, alough it's still foggy up on the higher ground. Still grey and murky out there atm with not a glimpse of sunshine to be seen so far. |
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#1919 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Southern East Anglia
Posts: 75,216
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Hi everyone.
Don't know about you but haven't been able to post on here for a few days, whenever I've pressed the "Post Reply" button it is I'm not allowed to access the page for some reason. Could've posted on the "Looks like we're in for another mild, damp and drizzly Xmas" thread but oh well. Was even thinking about starting a new weather thread and could well have started it today had other people not started posting yesterday and I still couldn't post on here. Anyway, looks like normal service is resumed. ![]() It was announced. Quite surprised you overlooked it. |
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#1920 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: North West England
Posts: 1,810
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They're upgrading the forum, that's why it was off for a couple or so days - link
It was announced. Quite surprised you overlooked it. |
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#1921 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Southern East Anglia
Posts: 75,216
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Never saw that mentioned anywhere. Thanks for telling me anyway. Thought something was up with the thread lol.
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#1922 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: North West England
Posts: 1,810
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I was hoping to go for a nice walk in the park this morning and listen to the cricket on my radio
but I don't want to go out in this fog ..............it can't be good for you ! ![]() ![]()
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#1923 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Southern East Anglia
Posts: 75,216
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Quote:
I was hoping to go for a nice walk in the park this morning and listen to the cricket on my radio
but I don't want to go out in this fog ..............it can't be good for you ! |
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#1924 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 76,816
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I'm not sure what you're confused about !breathing in thick fog can't be good for you er, surely ! |
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#1925 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: North West England
Posts: 1,810
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I'm not sure what you're confused about !
breathing in thick fog can't be good for you er, surely ! |
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