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2016 mobile predictions |
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#1 |
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 14,577
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2016 mobile predictions
As we get ready to put a new calendar up on the wall, what do you think the mobile industry has in store for us in 2016?
Technology, 4G, VoLTE, company exits, MVNO changes, aquisitions, what will we see in Android, what will Apple bring us...? |
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#2 |
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Join Date: Aug 2014
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Hopefully much more extensive and robust coverage with a wide 800MHz rollout from Vodafone and EE.
Three and O2 I think will do very little. |
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#3 |
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Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Totnes, Devon
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Technology will get faster, more advanced and even more difficult for the man in the street to understand. However this is totally the man in the street's fault as anyone not interested in tech in this day and age deserves to be left behind.
By the end of 2016 EE's 4G will make a mockery of other networks. Near blanket underlying fast 1800 with widespread 800 on top to get into those hard to reach places. Three's will look good on paper but will be too slow due to not enough 1800. VO2 will be good in places (I see a pattern here somewhere) but crap in others (probably here). Who cares about MVNO's. You just get less for less. BT will acquire EE and it'll be downhill form there. Three will attempt to acquire O2 but ofcom will go to Three "don't be ridiculous, and why would you want to buy that crap anyway"? Android will continue to remain even more fragmented and full of features no one needs (oh and probably still won't set up Exchange accounts automatically, coz that would make sense right? Oh and while there's talk of Apple like carrier settings so we don't have this idiotic situation where Android users have to wait for an update that never arrives for things like VoLTE, it will never actually happen as Google aren't capable of that.... coz that would make sense right?). Apple will bring us the iPhone 7 and iOS 10. The 7 will be 1 Nanometre thin and will not only bend in your pocket but will slice right through your leg like a hot knife through butter and iOS10 will drain your battery in 4 seconds until they get iOS 10.0.1 out at which point we will all say, why didn't they just make that iOS 10 in the first place and you start to question whether these people should really be writing mobile OSs at all. Oh and it will bollocks up the alarm and will ruin everyone's day until iOS 10.2 comes out at which point we will all say, yeah but why didn't you just make tha......... oh never mind..... Arrrggghhhhh!!! Some over enthusiastic guy will go on the keynote stage and attempt to get the whoops and applause he got back in the day but will fail as the audience will be half asleep going "yeah, whatever...... like when when are we going to get a Fusion powered iPhone that lasts a 10 years man"??? You will STILL only get 5GB free iCloud storage so people will STILL ask why it says it's full and I'll once again start losing the will to live trying to explain the difference between internal storage and iCloud storage, oh and if one single person this year uses "iCloud" to describe any kind of cloud service I'm going to rip their head from their body and will gladly go to jail for it. What the hell is the matter with people? How did we get this advanced? "Shall I get an iPad or a tablet"? Neither, go and kill yourself now, the future is coming fast and you've already failed..... Oh dear, that appears to have turned into a rant......
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#4 |
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Join Date: Aug 2014
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Quote:
Android will continue to remain even more fragmented and full of features no one needs (oh and probably still won't set up Exchange accounts automatically, coz that would make sense right? Oh and while there's talk of Apple like carrier settings so we don't have this idiotic situation where Android users have to wait for an update that never arrives for things like VoLTE, it will never actually happen as Google aren't capable of that.... coz that would make sense right?).
Google have already implemented unified settings for VoLTE. The Nexus devices already use them. |
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#5 |
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Join Date: Jul 2007
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Quote:
Google have already implemented unified settings for VoLTE. The Nexus devices already use them. So not really all that unified yet... |
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#6 |
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Join Date: Mar 2009
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The one prediction I'm going to make is that after the sale goes through regulation Three will rebrand the O2 brand as Three, consolidate stores and customer service, leaving both on and offshore.
I know they said they wouldn't, but networks always say they plan to run them separately before regulatory approval, I think they'll follow suit with what they've done in Ireland. I predict that this will happen in the 2nd half of the year. |
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#7 |
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Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: In the future....
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Mergers and Take Overs
EE and BT will probably go ahead however I do hope BT Openreach will have to be sold off. Another concern is that BT hate investment. I suspect they will soon put the brakes on 4G and 5G roll outs. While BT sold off Cellnet the skinflint culture continues at O2 today. Three and O2 will not go ahead. The EU will make too many demands and they will spit the dummy. I can only see this as a good thing. Telefonica and HWL will look for other buyers. Market and Manufacturers The Smartphone market will continue to slow. O2 will get to about 55% smartphone penetration at the end of 2016 way behind everyone else. Samsung are expected to cut sales of phones worldwide by 12% and even Apple has had a hit on its share price recently due to the downturn in sales. Both Apple and Samsung will continue to lead the market. Samsung will need to buck up their ideas or they will fall behind even further this year. Another Galaxy S6 is a bad idea. The S7 will be announced in February and be available in March. The iPhone 7 will be available in September / October. Motorola will continue to do well in the budget to mid range market. Windows Phone will continue to do not much! 4G VOLTE While this is not a problem on the newest iPhones Google have well and been resting on their laurels and let this slip. I doubt they will wake up and smell the coffee until the end of 2016. If this is important to you its probably best to avoid Android. No idea what Microsoft are doing?! 4G Roll Out More of the same I suspect. EE will continue to do a good roll out unless BT tell them to slow down. Vodafone and O2 will continue to roll out 4G to place that already have 3G (not a good strategy for these two laggards). Three will continue their WTF?! roll out that O2 and Vodafone would be proud of. http://nypost.com/2015/12/26/is-appl...-out-of-ideas/ http://www.sammobile.com/2015/12/23/...-12-next-year/ |
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#8 |
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Join Date: Jul 2007
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Quote:
The one prediction I'm going to make is that after the sale goes through regulation Three will rebrand the O2 brand as Three, consolidate stores and customer service, leaving both on and offshore.
I know they said they wouldn't, but networks always say they plan to run them separately before regulatory approval, I think they'll follow suit with what they've done in Ireland. I predict that this will happen in the 2nd half of the year. |
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#9 |
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Join Date: Feb 2015
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My predictions will be utter rubbish but I'll give it a go.
Networks - Coverage on EE 4G will become ubiquitous with long contiguous sections of 4G across the country. Perhaps power turned up on 1800 in some areas if they launched VoLTE properly. T-Mobile USA announced the other day that 40% of their calls on their network now go through VoLTE a year after turning it on so I wonder what difference that would make to available power levels. 2600 will become also pretty widespread on most masts in urban, congested areas. 800 will be used where it needs to be perhaps via some deal with Three - spectrum sharing might have been a good idea thinking about it. BT deal will happen, perhaps some spectrum sold, then probably investment in network will reduced maybe Olaf resigns. - Vodafone will keep investment at the high rates it is now, hopefully they can also get VoLTE done and turn the power up, whilst refarming even more 2G spectrum to 3G900 to ensure that. 2600 will have to be rolled out as wide spread as possible I think in urban areas along maybe with us beginning to see 1400 maybe in the later months. I think at the end of the year they will be where EE is now just with not as much network density and raw speed. -I think that the o2/Three merger will be blocked or subject to such strict conditions that it won't go ahead. Thus we may see the networks try to be sold individually. Network wise I think o2 will get OK coverage wise lead by Cornerstone but I think they'll be really short on spectrum especially in cities, unless they do some kind of wide scale small cell rollout. Three will be shit still on 1800 coverage where they have enough spectrum and they'll rely far too much on 800 which we may see bumped up in priority in places where they've upgraded enough masts and where VoLTE is working properly. General Technology Abroad we may see stuff like LTE-U and LTE-Broadcast coming on to the market. Probably not here outside of maybe EE/Vodafone proof of concepts in London/Newbury/Hatfield. MVNOs -Tesco Mobile may change hands if Tesco doesn't pick up meaning that a new direction might be taken there. -GiffGaff still don't know I don't think what will happen with that if Telefonica exits. -BT Mobile something will happen there, no idea what though. Don't think we'll see much on this market change unless the EU Commission or Ofcom decides that we need to push this big time. We might see even more smaller MVNO closures like Sainsbury's mobile. Android -Xiaomi and the like might try a western push, see if they can fully break into the cheaper sector. Might get some fun intellectual property suits with some of these from the like of Apple if they try that. -HTC might finally go away. -I hope Sony stay but I don't think it's all going to well -LG will release another nice phone but it won't sell well. -Samsung will release probably an iterative update to the S6, will sell reasonably well. -As for the platform as a whole I think we'll have to see Google taking more control to try and professionalise (is that a word?) it all up. Stuff like Carrier Profiles, one update for everything and enterprise management on iOS runs rings around Android and Google needs to address it. If they don't then Three aren't going to have the best year considering how much battery inTouch will waste with Supervoice. iOS -Some "revolutionary" update to the iPhone that will of course change everything once again. Better camera, display, processor new design. -Some nice new features, maybe a bit of a redesign for iOS 10 (10 :O ) I don't know how much of a market share iOS will gain though. - Apple Watch might receive a bit of a facelift. Windows Phone -I want it to work but Microsoft need to fix the apps, working with Google is really their only hope in my opinion and then it'll still be too late. |
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#10 |
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Join Date: Mar 2009
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I can find my 2014 predictions, but was there a thread for 2015?
http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showp...58&postcount=2 What I predicted in 2013 for 2014 actually happened in 2015 (mostly), I was just a bit early. |
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#11 |
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Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: The wilds of West Tyrone
Posts: 2,122
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Main pointers...
* The O2/3 proposed merger will be allowed to happen with some conditions attached - one of them being that the new O2/3 operator will not be permitted to bid on the eventual 700MHz spectrum when its auction takes place, instead with at least 2 x 10MHz paired FDD spectrum in the auction being reserved for a new entrant. * The BT takeover of EE will be completed. EE * EE will commence with 800MHz coverage, reserved initially for accounts either for contract phones with VoLTE capability or for mobile broadband. * After another 100GB sim promotion in the spring, announce that they will be looking to expand their mobile broadband offerings to target fixed home use (beyond that currently in parts of Cumbria) with packages of up to 100Gb of data a month, offers restricted to certain parts of the UK at first before expanding in 2017 - spurred on by current government promises for minimum speed coverage obligations. * With the BT takeover of EE a done deal, they'll be indications of BT looking at allowing BT TV customers to "take the TV with them" by developing a mobile phone app for them to watch their channels over 4G on the move with data use being zero-rated. * The Orange & T-Mobile brands in the UK will slip further into obscurity - first, contract customers on either sim-only or having passed their minimum pay-monthly term will be given an offer to transfer to EE whilst keeping their current plan (if it suits them better than any present EE plan) with the bonus of 4G where available, otherwise have their contract terminated with PAC code offered. Secondly a date will be announced where EE will no longer "activate" any remaining new Orange or T-Mobile PAYG sim cards, with current users being given time to transfer over to EE PAYG before an eventual closure in 2017. Vodafone * Vodafone will start marking a push on their triple-play mobile/landline/broadband offerings, with rumours going about of them entering the IPTV market in their LLU areas. * Will continue to roll out their 4G footprint (with 3G being upgraded in tandem), aiming to cover at least 85-90% of the UK population by the end of the year. * 2600MHz coverage also to be ramped up in the main urban centres to provide LTE-A services in competition with EE. O2 * Until it can be fully confirmed that the 3 takeover is on or off, they'll likely be stuck in a bit of a rut. But I can see them do a technical trial in some urban areas where their current 4G spectrum is heavily used where they start using their 1800MHz spectrum for LTE in these places to help ease congestion in the 800MHz band. I would not be surprised if they also look at dedicating more 900MHz spectrum for 3G or even 4G coverage at the expense of some 2G bandwidth. * As part of Cornerstone, their 800MHz 4G coverage will continue to increase (as will their 3G in tandem), being particularly important towards reaching their coverage obligation at the end of 2017. * Other than that, I don't see much in the way of special news from them. 3 UK * Like O2, probably stuck in a rut until takeover decision is final, but will nevertheless press on with their 800MHz 4G coverage roll out in tandem with 1800 MHz. * In response to EE's announcement of a "home 4G" broadband service, 3 will also announce a similar service. General * Ofcom will announce early in the year that it will not force BT to spin off Openreach provided that an agreement is reached for parts of the UK that are deemed difficult to not viable for FTTC to be covered that NSV spectrum in the 2600MHz band is used for a "fixed wireless" LTE service which is (a) intended to replicate a general FTTC connection of at least 15-20Mbps and an acceptable level of service not subject to heavy contention, and (b) is accessible to ISPs on the same terms & costs as those providing services over Openreach's FTTC network (i.e. the "fibre" service will be delivered over 4G if FTTC is not possible) in a similar fashion to NBN's fixed wireless network in parts of regional Australia. Otherwise all bets are off. * A date will be announced for the 700, 2300 & 3500MHz spectrum auctions. * Increased wholesale costs by both EE & Vodafone will start forcing MVNOs using these networks to either close,significantly increase prices or reduce bundle amounts (as seen with TPO & Post Office mobile) or start transferring to O2 & 3 with Lebara being a major name caught up in this. |
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#12 |
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I think the real certainly is the BT take over of EE.
This will no doubt carry on slowing down the EE drive of improving the old 2g sites, especially whilst 3 could be merging with o2. On that front, suspect that deal will get blocked via regulation. Then we shall see Sky wanting to purchase o2. Can see Tesco hanging around a bit longer as the other change could be Tesco to Sky. Other MNVOs will probably continue to decline as you are getting to the point where the market is starting to consolidate. As for 4g. It will be the year that VF/o2 make a real impression on data in most places. You can see it being more of a level playing field after this year. |
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#13 |
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: North West
Posts: 4,886
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BT will acquire EE with very little opposition and regulation wise. I don't think BT will dump the brand either, I suspect it will become "EE by BT" or something similar. The investing EE has put into its network, this will continue at a pace, probably spurred on by BT. EE being the "premier" network for 4G will remain so, prices will stay the same but more data will be offered in the future.
BT will close down the EE TV offering and move customers across to their own platform. That said it would be more likely BT will have to sell off EE's broadband platform, to placate concerns about being the biggest ISP in the country. The 3/O2 merger will fail, domestic regulators have already come out in opposition to this. Granted EU/EC has stepped in to handle a large merger of this kind. I do believe the EU/EC will largely agree with OFCOM and CMA, in effect rubber stamping the rejection. Should it fail then Telefonica will search for a buy and probably sell at any price so long as it isn't stupid. Virgin Media's parent may have a part to play in this. Vodafone will continue playing catch up, though it will be at a faster pace than ever before. Given their broad spectrum portfolio, I think they will be a match for EE. I suspect VoLTE will launch by the end of this tax year. It will be problematic, lots of teeth issues, it will be a grandual roll out, only a certain number of handsets. Vodafone may purchase EE's broadband divsion, it would give its own operations a shot in the arm, also a network of would mobile subscribers as well. 2016 should be the year we see a battery break through, whether this develops from components with lower power needs or as I think like a new battery technology ready for the mainstream. There are several prototypes doing the round for quite a number of years actually. One particular battery has found a way to squash more cells or energy into a smaller package. Some of the prototypes have been made out of carbon. In essence we may find ourselves holding a battery that is 2600mAh with Lithium based material, yet the same physical with some new batteries can hold energy upto 4 times that amount. Its also said to charge fast and have an even longer life span, Apple I think are going to surprise us, I think they will finally make the leap to 1080p for its entry/mid range or the current 6S. The design will be a evolution, not as radical as the change from 5S to 6/6+. They finally address the battery complaints, no doubt further complimented by an energy efficient SoC. All that aside 2016 will be the time Apple and its iPhone(s) will reach saturation point. It has released its devices into markets where people are willing to buy them. From then on their revenues will flatten if not decline slowly. I expect them to be profitable for many many years, I just think 2016 will be when they peak. You may have noticed Apple didn't bother launching a new iPad air this year.......fewer and fewer are buying upgrades seeing as their current iPads or tablets work so well. Samsung is going to if they don't adjust the asking price for their handsets. The problem Android and latterly Samsung has is other manufacturers offering just a capable hardware for a fraction of the price. They will release S7/S7 Edge, it will flop as its too damned expensive or Samsung not learning their lesson filling it with bloat. That said I think by April 2016 the novelty of an "edge" display will have worn off. I suspect they will pull back on promotion of those type of phones and go back to its stalwart. I expect them to make a play for the middle ground, launching phones that are well specced for the price, there is no growth in high end phones anymore. The sooner they learn that the better, its a problem not unique to the as well, Apple will be hit with it eventually. Google will finally begin unify Chrome OS with Android, they have already muddied the waters by releasing the Pixel-C, I expect that continue as Google offers a way to run full Android apps on a Chrome OS based machine. Google will also do something quite charitable, support investment in digital communication for villages and small towns in Africa and South America. Android 7 will be the time when Google whips manufacturers into line, thus reducing fragmentation. I think that will be targeted to the likes of Samsung, Huawei, ZTE, Oppo basically any device maker using a heavily customised skin/launcher. Google is getting pissed off having to put up with the jabs and jibes because of Android has become so mssed up. I also have a feeling they will revert to the Open Handset Alliance guidelines which entrenched fast upgrades and updates as part of the platform. Google will also surprise us with a new product in a category we hadn't considered before. I believe 2016 will be the year the so called "mid range" market for handsets will explode. We have already seen falling prices for near flagship level specifications. Samsung is going to feel it the most, until they bring out one of their own. Competition will force device makers and retail shops to offer good phones at keener prices. We should expect something big come Google I/O in the middle of 2016. Watch out for Sky and Virgin Media, the former are just about to ramp their own offering and if rumours are true will be selling packages that wipe the floor with rest of the market. The latter are being very coy around their mobile business, I have a feeling they may change the nature of their partnership if or more when BT takes over EE.........thats where Vodafone would step in. |
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#14 |
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Join Date: Jun 2015
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I can't really comment as it would give too much away, but some of you are quite close to my view of the world. Expect something in Q2-ish that no one has yet mentioned.
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#15 |
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Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Destination: Hard Brexit
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My predictions.... Remember - these may not happen and nothing I post about EE is based on fact...
EE/BT will complete as planned.... In February rather than March. Swantee will remain on the board and will continue to drive investment in the network regardless of BT's desire to slow down. As part of the deal agreed, BT will be required to divest their 4G spectrum holding at 2600, possibly gifting or selling cheaply to O2 or Three as they are seriously lacking 4G capacity. EE will be required to divest their Home Broadband customer base, possibly to PlusNet (a hived off BT company). VoLTE will commercially launch in March. BT and EE names to remain in 2016 pending consolidation in 2017-18. 3/O2 will not happen. Telefonica will sell O2 to another company, possibly Sky, for a knockdown cost. EE 4G will be available to 99% of the population on 1800, 96% on 800 however covering more "not spots" and 80% 2600, enabling nearly everyone in the UK to have some kind of 4G access by the end of 2016. This will also prep the network for the emergency services contract that starts in 2017. EE may make a small play for 10MHz at 700MHz but leave 2300 as they've got a considerable amount of 1800 available. Vodafone will invest heavily in the 700/2300 4G frequencies when they're announced. They may also make a play for EE's broadband business if forced to divest. Cornerstone will hit a stumbling block as Telefonica stumbles out of the UK market. 3 will continue to roll out 4G on a "case by case basis" where 3G capacity is stretched. I think that's it.... Let's see how many I get wrong! |
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#16 |
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Join Date: Mar 2003
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I wonder if Telefonica would sell to someone at a knock down price? Or would they now hold on a bit longer as the cornerstone investment could easily give them another 10yrs of cash cow milking to do and take their time over a sale.
No deal with 3 probably hits 3 most as they don't have anywhere near the 4g coverage that o2 is building. |
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#17 |
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Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: North Wales
Posts: 325
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Quote:
I wonder if Telefonica would sell to someone at a knock down price? Or would they now hold on a bit longer as the cornerstone investment could easily give them another 10yrs of cash cow milking to do and take their time over a sale.
No deal with 3 probably hits 3 most as they don't have anywhere near the 4g coverage that o2 is building. ![]() O2 have got their work cut out upgrading all the 2G only sites which will pretty much all need a complete overhaul, going to be very costly for them. They'll achieve it with Vodafone's help but it will be costly upgrading the large amount of legacy 2G sites they both have. |
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#18 |
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: North West
Posts: 4,886
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Quote:
My predictions.... Remember - these may not happen and nothing I post about EE is based on fact...
EE will be required to divest their Home Broadband customer base, possibly to PlusNet (a hived off BT company). The Emergency Services contract is a big thing, especially EE managing to convince procurement to switch to them. I do think EE will piss all over the previous network, and I suppose this will give them the impetus to roll out 99% coverage as you say. TBH I think EE is the only network showing real growth and progress, the rest havent even got out of the starting gate yet in some areas. |
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#19 |
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Join Date: Aug 2014
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The issue is, will EE continue to show growth when they are owned by BT? I just can't see it.
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#20 |
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Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Destination: Hard Brexit
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Quote:
The issue is, will EE continue to show growth when they are owned by BT? I just can't see it.
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#21 |
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Join Date: Jul 2004
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I think 3/O2 my well happen. The current opposition is prepping to put conditions on it. Standard practice really. They may well have to divest themselves of something but I think it will happen.
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#22 |
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The reason BT were interested in the first place was because of the strength of the EE network. They have their MVNO on it. They are certainly not going to slow down.
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#23 |
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Join Date: Jul 2007
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Quote:
The issue is, will EE continue to show growth when they are owned by BT? I just can't see it.
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#24 |
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Location: Midlands
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Why not? the current growth has been ongoing under the ownership of 2 disinterested foreign owners who would probably also have been quite happy to cut costs but saw the advantages of making it the best network in the UK. There is no reason for it not to continue under a new owner who is trying to grow their market share.
It's these expensive areas to upgrade that are the real test. Will BT really want to spend on these? Can't see it myself. |
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#25 |
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Join Date: Mar 2009
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Three could easily have 4G coverage that matches EE, they are not investing in it nearly as much as EE are so that won't happen.
![]() Most ordinary users don't care about speed tests, they care if they can post on social media, browse the web and stream. If you want 100Mb/s speeds then EE is the premium more expensive network for your geeky needs (actually no noticeable difference to most people doing ordinary things with their phones) |
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