I also don't see BT slowing down investment in EE after acquiring - don't forget BT plc is quite a different financial beast now in 2015 than it was in 2002 when it sold mmO2 to prop up the problems with the pension.

O2 suffered from being owned by a good organisation that couldn't get borrowing, due to the credit crunch being much worse in Spain than here. For a long time around here O2 was a better option than Vodafone as Voda was 2G/GPRS only and O2 had 3G/900 pretty much everywhere. Lots of people still on O2 from the iPhone exclusive history amazingly.

I think BT / EE will - and its likely they've not been touched yet as they're lower population, so you invest in areas that are going to give the most return (i.e. grow subscriber numbers) such as the cities and bigger towns.

Plus it could be limitations on getting backhaul into mast sites, I worked for a company that upgraded a 2mbps link to a 1gbps link into a remote location and it took actually 24 months from order to the circuit being installed by the telco. They didn't have a microwave option however.

Quite useful thought if you've got a busy city centre and sharing 100mbps with 2500 people rather than 10mbps with 2500 people, each gets a better experience. As people buy more advanced devices (Galaxy S5/S6/S7, iPhone 6/6s/7) the cellular radio reception improves dramatically.

Didn't Mr Canning Fok of CK Hutchison say that if the O2/Three transaction was prevented, they would review their UK operations? I think they're stalled at the 10million customer base, have lots of youth who love unlimited data on the mobiles but too many older people have had coverage issues with indoor voice calls - and not enough people have been tempted away from O2 and Voda - and now O2 and Voda are dramatically improving thanks to CTIL.

2016 will be a tough year for Three if they don't get O2, and can merge to one network.

I wonder if we'll see networks using 4x2 or 4x4 MIMO antennas if the Snapdragon 820 supports it.

Some already are

Oh. That means one of my predictions came true right? .

I presume that's linked to 2600?

I've thought of another. Maybe leasing instead of paying for phones outright like the American networks have switched to.

Not sure I get that approach but the O2 way would be good where the monthly reduces once you've paid back the subsidy. Without having to call and ask to be moved to a different plan.

As phones last longer and people don't need to upgrade this will become more important.

Up there with Wavejock

O2 have the lowest Smartphone penetration of any network by a huge margin (just over 50%).

BT have a long history of minimal investment. EE probably interested them in that most of the 4G roll out would be complete by the time they got their hands on it. BT will then slow investment and milk it for all its worth.

When Cellnet started along with Vodafone, BT Cellnet kept investment low by placing masts next to exchanges that BT owned. Where as Vodafone used computer modelling to place masts in the best locations. BT love minimal investment. You just have to look at their dreadful broadband roll out. Stick to highly populated areas and forget the rest.

I can't wait . Is it a national switch on of 800 and 2600, with CA for everyone and 300Meg speeds? . I can dream. Or is it TDD1900 for modems?

Seriously though, and as briefly as I can....

- Android will continue to fragment, but remain by far the biggest OS. Expect it to be a bigger target for viruses and hackers as time goes on, particularly on devices poorly supported by updates.

- Windows Phone 10 will make some traction, but not enough to move it's market share more than a fraction of 1%.

- I'm on the side of 3/O2 not going through now, wheras before I was confident it would. Expect the networks to rot from underinvestment while the deal is bounced between regulators. O2 being sold to Sky is a good shout (mentioned elsewhere in the thread). What 3 will do who knows. Chronically slow 4G rollout, fudged 4G800, overloaded 3G, not in a good position.

- BT will take over EE and go into "sweat the assets" mode. Expect limited further rollout once BT really get their teeth into it. They have no competition really. EETV wil become BTTV. EE broadband will probably have to be sold off. BT Openreach will hopefully be sold off, to be fair it's not like they actually do anything.

- O2 will continue to be tight on spectrum, lacklustre on data coverage and not sell many smartphones.

- Vodafone to roll out network wide EDGE in 2016, along with adding 4G to both of their 3G masts.

- EE will be after some of the 700 band, but won't bother with the rest. Expect the other three to scrap over the 2300 and 3600. Handset support will need to be watched for the latter two bands

- Wider rollout of some sort of FTTC like 4G network, whether based on the Relish spectrum, the BT 2600 (which they will probably have to flog) or something else. TDD1900 anyone? Aiming to cover rural areas BT can't (be bothered to) rollout fibre to.

That's probably enough!

Will the Samsung Note 5 turn up on our shores or do we forever live as a 2nd class nation?

In 2016 EE will be rolling out [redacted] on [redacted] cell sites, to support this a further [redacted] will take place.

But don't worry Devon you will get [redacted] too, also with the launch of [redacted] that I am sure everyone here will appreciate in Q[redacted] 2016

Vodafone to finally lose most of their customers due to their rip off call costs, slow or non existent 3G data and appalling customer service and go to three instead.

And it will be three who have the bustling shops while vodafone will be left with just 1 man/woman and his/her dog at a time in store. Not the other way around as has been the case until now.

Three still to offer AYCE data, 300 minutes worth of calls and 3000 texts on PAYG for 20 quid a month. And EE continue to offer their special 2 months × 100GB of data for a one off 10 quid payment.

Irony at its finest.

Ok, here goes.....

In 2016 EE will be rolling out [800] on [selected] cell sites, to support this a further [???] will take place.

But don't worry Devon you will get [800] too, also with the launch of [VoLTE] that I am sure everyone here will appreciate in Q[2] 2016

Struggling with the third "redacted".

1800 power increase?
Yeah, I had been speculating that the low 1800 power could cause problems with too many users on 800.
For example, outside my house for quite a big radius would be 800 but would easily be 1-3 bars 1800 if the power was cranked up.
So we will see the 800 sites going high 4G1800 power and 2G CSFB.

2600 rollout? Backhaul upgrades? Donations of old 2G kit to Vodafone?

BT will buy EE and remove 3G and 4G coverage from any property which currently doesn't have fibre as we clearly don't need any sort of decent data service or we would have moved by now.

to support this a further [2600 rollout] will take place.
to support this a further [Backhaul upgrades] will take place.
to support this a further [Donations of old 2G kit to Vodafone] will take place.

Hmmmm, it's tricky but I think the last one is the most plausible......
Hahahahahahaha

I also predict that due to the crappy speed of my DSL, there will still be a half to one second delay before the banner advert pops open on DS pages causing the page to jump and that will be the split second I click a link. I will therefore visit the links /FAQ page a further 19'000 times.

Glad it's not just me.

Hi Thine Wonk,

Thanks for making the thread. It's really interesting to see where people think the industry is heading and this has been a great read so far.

Whilst I haven't got any bold predictions to post from myself just yet, I will comment on a few posts that I've read here.


Great post.

I wouldn't put too much stock into the Samsung shipment article as the number used there (420m) is more than they will ship this year. So if they plan to cut shipments by 12% then the can't possibly end up with a higher number :P

I do agree that the Smartphone market is now beginning to mature and it is clear that the two leaders for 2016 will be Apple and Samsung with the other manufacturers fighting it out for third place (in the UK).

EE will clearly have the best 4G network next year (they already do) and I'm not sure what happened to Three after all the promises from them.


Hi Redcoat,

Always love reading your posts because you're clearly very knowledgeable about the overall industry. I don't think there is a single point here that I can disagree on, not that I think they'll all come true, but they are very likely to happen given the state of the industry today.

I believe there will certainly be some restrictions put in place should the Three and O2 merger go ahead and I fully agree with your view of how BT will handle the EE merger in regards to its TV customers and Mobile Broadband services.

Lol!

BT are not known for their cutting edge investment and will surly want a return from their investment ASAP.

I would imagine rather than spending more in upgrades, the main focus will be selling EE customers BT broadband, phone and tv. Then the commercial side on how they can get open reach providing the backhaul to all sites.

That should set about stage 1 of returns. Then maybe 4g for all those areas fibre can't reach / too expensive for BT.

Then who knows maybe upgrade / close down sites where a BT exchange could house a mast, rather than a private landlord.

Now they will have milked it and loads of price hikes , they may upgrade to 4.1g

I agree with most things mentioned in this thread.

Not sure why Plymouth thinks EE wouldn't want the 700MHz spectrum though,

If Openreach is spilt off BT won't own any exchanges anymore will they?