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2016 mobile predictions
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enapace
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by Gigabit:
“If Openreach is spilt off BT won't own any exchanges anymore will they?”

Good question I'm not entirely sure on that one. I know the cabinets poles man holes and last "mile" of cable belongs to open reach but not sure about the exchanges themselves. Think they technically would belong to Openreach many are simple husks of what they used to be in fairness.
packages
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by enapace:
“I agree with most things mentioned in this thread.

Not sure why Plymouth thinks EE wouldn't want the 700MHz spectrum though,”

Plymouth says they would want it?
DevonBloke
29-12-2015
Yeah he said he thought they would go for 10Mhz but wouldn't want 2300.
jaffboy151
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by Stereo Steve:
“BT will buy EE and remove 3G and 4G coverage from any property which currently doesn't have fibre as we clearly don't need any sort of decent data service or we would have moved by now.”

Excellent post, so true of how BT views it's customers..
I'm convinced this is drummed into there call centre staff during training as they've always take that tone with me, as if to say, why do you need fast speed anyway... All you do is shag sheep, get your milk quota price email and download the archers podcast once a week.. I

Originally Posted by Stereo Steve:
“I also predict that due to the crappy speed of my DSL, there will still be a half to one second delay before the banner advert pops open on DS pages causing the page to jump and that will be the split second I click a link. I will therefore visit the links /FAQ page a further 19'000 times.”

I'm so glad to learn it's not just me who's does this constantly, followed by palm of hand hitting face..

Everyone here seemes quite confident Vodafone will continue rolling out 4g with some saying it will catch up with where EE is now by The end of next year,
I know there are planning applications for these old 2g sites to be upgraded but I've yet to see any expansion of data coverage so far or planned in the next three months from Vodafone into these areas aside from increased fringe coverage due to 800mhz 4g & 900mhz 3g being added to a mast.
Could Vodafone get to 90% by just upgrading it's existing 3g network thanks to using 800mhz 4g & 900mhz 3g?
Im hoping the current strategy is due to backhaul delays or wanting to do the smaller sites 1st to avoid swamping a larger site with users if activated 1st and Not down to a lack of effort or appreciation that people living or travelling in these areas might actually need data.. Also does anyone know how much 900mhz 2g they plan to refarm? Would it not have been more beneficial to have done this mast by mast after they were upgraded to 4g or could it not work like that..
mogzyboy
29-12-2015
EE will continue to offer completely pants data allowances so they can carry on willy-waving about having a fast network. Whilst it's true, this is really because nobody can get enough data to make the most of their shiny smartphones, rather than EE being leagues ahead of the other MNOs.
clewsy
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by Gigabit:
“If Openreach is spilt off BT won't own any exchanges anymore will they?”

It won't get split because of the issues with the shareholders. The Government does not want years of battles and then be left making massive payouts to shareholders over their action. If BT have a choice of Open Reach or EE, they would choose Open Reach every time.

But of course what will be the deal is BT agreeing to cover more of the UK with faster internet access, either by Fibre or Mobile data and everyone will be happy.
Stereo Steve
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by mogzyboy:
“EE will continue to offer completely pants data allowances so they can carry on willy-waving about having a fast network. Whilst it's true, this is really because nobody can get enough data to make the most of their shiny smartphones, rather than EE being leagues ahead of the other MNOs.”

Had a look at VOD deals on the 6S and yes, they are better than EE's. Unfortunately pointless for me to have 25GB for £54 on a network with no data coverage over huge swathes of Britain. EE may only offer 12GB for around the same price but at least you can connect to it if you live more than 2 miles outside a city or town.
jaffboy151
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by mogzyboy:
“EE will continue to offer completely pants data allowances so they can carry on willy-waving about having a fast network. Whilst it's true, this is really because nobody can get enough data to make the most of their shiny smartphones, rather than EE being leagues ahead of the other MNOs.”

Very good point in my opinion, I'd like to see how the network would cope with something more like 40gb or 80gb per month being offered to customers.. Sadly 40gb would be probably what I'd need if I was on EE,
I only use my phone when travelling to work a day back for Spotify or Google play music and a bit of I player radio and streaming but I still managed to rack up an average of 16gb on Three with naff all signal most the time and now on Vodafone with my main phone it's around 18-20gb mainly on 3g but using 4g at home a bit more to bypass my ads. 0.3mbps uploaded speed which plays havoc with Dropbox, Google photos or trying to uploads photos on amazon or eBay..
If you actively need data everywhere like EE provides, due to the limits in places it must be like having a Ferrari in the garage with a litre of fuel in it.
I'd like to see data plans increase this year hopefully but I'm guessing if they do the general cost overall for data will increase as a result.
Fingers crossed cornerstone don't play the safe 3g only site upgrade game all 2016
jchamier
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by Stereo Steve:
“Had a look at VOD deals on the 6S and yes, they are better than EE's. Unfortunately pointless for me to have 25GB for £54 on a network with no data coverage over huge swathes of Britain. EE may only offer 12GB for around the same price but at least you can connect to it if you live more than 2 miles outside a city or town.”

Voda will at least sell a 20gb/month for £30 - but EE max out at 10gb/m for £26. Shame.
enapace
29-12-2015
EE do sell a 20GB SIM Only but you need ask at certain times its kind of odd to be honest.
DevonBloke
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by Stereo Steve:
“Had a look at VOD deals on the 6S and yes, they are better than EE's. Unfortunately pointless for me to have 25GB for £54 on a network with no data coverage over huge swathes of Britain. EE may only offer 12GB for around the same price but at least you can connect to it if you live more than 2 miles outside a city or town.”

VOD onto a winner there. £54 for data that won't get used. Excellent strategy. Very profitable I should think. I'd get GPRS here but if I drove 3 miles into Totnes I could attempt to use all that data on EDGE that doesn't work.
Also don't forget they have WiFi calling that doesn't do SMS.
It's almost impossible to comprehend the blatant stupidity of this.
There's only one or two words for whoever thought that would be acceptable but it can't really be posted here.
Redcoat
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by jabbamk1:
“Hi Redcoat,

Always love reading your posts because you're clearly very knowledgeable about the overall industry. I don't think there is a single point here that I can disagree on, not that I think they'll all come true, but they are very likely to happen given the state of the industry today.

I believe there will certainly be some restrictions put in place should the Three and O2 merger go ahead and I fully agree with your view of how BT will handle the EE merger in regards to its TV customers and Mobile Broadband services.”

Well, I'm flattered! However I've never worked in the industry. It's more the case of myself helping troubleshoot and fix issues to do with mobile & broadband locally and then being able to gather bits and pieces together to see what's likely to happen. As an example I'm probably the biggest defender of O2 here outside of the lamented and sorely missed wavejockglw down to simply what their overall capabilities are like than just focus on one area of provision (albeit perhaps the most important one) like fast data - but where they deserve a kicking it is only right that they get it. The same with the other three MNOs.

I seem to be one of the few here sticking my neck out that the O2/3 merger will be allowed to go ahead without a major burden of restrictions to make it unfeasable. My reasoning?

* It's clear that Telefonica are looking to exit the UK market, while Hutchinson have been making noises about looking to exit the UK themselves if this deal does not go through. The longer they are both kept waiting on a decision, the less they'll look to making anything more than a slow rate of investment on their networks. Not good for a government in Westminster that is keen to tout its commitment to a "Digital Britain".

* If the merger is off, both companies will likely offload - the UK market is a very competitive one. Arguably too competitive - resulting in thin margins that sees little get invested back into network infrastructure and well as shareholder returns. Selling the network for the right price could allow either party to either help cover deficit holes (Telefonica) or potentially look to target new markets which can give them better ARPU ratios (Hutchinson).

* Also, who would want to buy either network? BSkyB is often touted for O2, but I'm not convinced. The company has no experience in running an MNO anywhere and unlike their buyout of Easynet a number of years back when LLU was still fledgling with a developing roll out, buying out O2 would see them having to hit the ground running in investing in network infrastructure to play catch-up in the 3G/4G stakes, which could prove costly when their business operations are now a pan-European model (though not their customer one) and having a significant burden of Premier League fees to pay for when trying to squeeze even more money out from pay-TV customers. If Sky were to enter the MNO market in the UK, I'd reckon it might be better for them to start afresh with a roaming agreement outside of their main core areas like 3 had in the mid noughties - and perhaps it would be better for them to be an MVNO first to test the waters, which it appears they will be doing.

* So who else could buy O2 or 3 UK? Hard to think of any of the other main European networks that haven't been involved in the UK before will look into it, there might be interest from a North America network like AT&T or Verizon, or maybe of of the established operators from East Asia. As I said above, the UK market runs on fairly thin margins and would need a fair amount of investment on an amount of spectrum that is quite limited compared to Vodafone or EE. Going back to the 800/2600 auction, no new major players looked to make any serious effort into obtaining spectrum for a new network launch and I don't think conditions are much different at present.

* Although it would appear to be unthinkable with either party, the prospect of one of these networks deciding to hand back their MNO licence in the event of being unable to sell and deciding that running the network with the investment required is not profitable in the long run would be a major embarrassment to UK PLC.

* If the merger was to go ahead without much fuss, Telefonica could exit the UK market quietly while Hutchinson would be able to access a significant amount of infrastructure & increase in spectrum which it could in the short term rely on to fill holes in their 3G/4G coverage (the lack of a 2G fall back for 3 where I live now is a PITA, while 3G in the 900 band would also be a boost) and develop in the long term in tandem with Vodafone (provided Cornerstone will continue). In return, it's likely the new MNO would have to at least relinquish or trade some spectrum as a consequence - 3's 800 spectrum being the likely candidate though they could make a pitch to swap with NSVs 2600 spectrum but that will depend on other factors coming into play.

* But it's also likely that Ofcom & Westminster will not want to allow just three UK MNOs to exist for too long if they can help it, hence my idea in the new O2/3 network being forbidden in bidding for 700MHz spectrum when they time comes and reserving some of it for a new entrant like the 3G spectrum sale back in the early 00's. Likely it wouldn't just be 700MHz spectrum explicitly reserved for it, there would probably be a bit somewhere else too e.g. TDD 2300 spectrum. Then BSkyB might jump in.

Everyone else, feel free to critique!
Redcoat
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by jaffboy151:
“Very good point in my opinion, I'd like to see how the network would cope with something more like 40gb or 80gb per month being offered to customers.. Sadly 40gb would be probably what I'd need if I was on EE,”

I see EE currently have an offer for Mobile Broadband of 50GB of data a month with a mi-fi dongle thrown in for free (Osprey 2/mini or Car Wifi) for £27.50 a month on a 24 month contract.

http://shop.ee.co.uk/dongles/pay-mon...rom-ee/details

Looks like a pretty decent offer, and I assume there's nothing to stop you using the sim card in a proper 4G router if you want to.

Not sure about data for pay monthly contracts though.
DevonBloke
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by Redcoat:
“I see EE currently have an offer for Mobile Broadband of 50GB of data a month with a mi-fi dongle thrown in for free (Osprey 2/mini or Car Wifi) for £27.50 a month on a 24 month contract.

http://shop.ee.co.uk/dongles/pay-mon...rom-ee/details

Looks like a pretty decent offer, and I assume there's nothing to stop you using the sim card in a proper 4G router if you want to.

Not sure about data for pay monthly contracts though.”

Yeah, was discussed either yesterday or the day before.
Yes the SIM can be put in anything.
I went on their 15Gb for £20 plan in June 2014 complete with Huawei MiFi.
Took the SIM out and put it in my Huawei b593 router where it's been ever since.
My EE account page now even shows the b593 against that SIM.
Shame it's only for new users or I'd upgrade. Don't want a new 24 month contract though.
Going to ring up and try today anyway!
Redcoat
29-12-2015
I'm fortunate enough to have a FTTC line where in live in my village. But if I was living a couple of miles away this would be a potential godsend in terms of data speed compared to ADSL over long lines. 24 months is a wee bit long, but factoring in the cost of £27.50 pm most people would spend at least that for their line rental & landline broadband package anyway. If EE 4G coverage is available it looks a great deal, plus the 50GB allowance would I'd say suit the majority of users. IIRC it's impossible to get "bill shock" with EE MBB as if you run out of your data allowance, you need to purchase a data allowance or wait until the start of the next billing month?
Let's hope it's a sign of EE looking at making a nod to potentially selling MBB as a viable alternative to those via landline - my current contract with Plusnet is up in less than 3 months and with my experience with the 100GB sims I could seriously look to them as an alternative especially with line rental prices being ridiculous these days as well as hardly using my landline phone.
jchamier
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by DevonBloke:
“My EE account page now even shows the b593 against that SIM.”

That page updates pretty quickly to the device you have the SIM in, pretty clever. Some devices it can't identify though.
jabbamk1
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by Redcoat:
“Well, I'm flattered! However I've never worked in the industry. It's more the case of myself helping troubleshoot and fix issues to do with mobile & broadband locally and then being able to gather bits and pieces together to see what's likely to happen. As an example I'm probably the biggest defender of O2 here outside of the lamented and sorely missed wavejockglw down to simply what their overall capabilities are like than just focus on one area of provision (albeit perhaps the most important one) like fast data - but where they deserve a kicking it is only right that they get it. The same with the other three MNOs.”

Hi Redcoat,

It seems the experience you've had troubleshooting mobile & broadband issues has allowed you to grasp the complexity of the overall industry as your posts in the past have proved that you know a lot about each network.

Each network has their advantages and I think the reason O2 gets attacked on this forum a lot is because a lot of the posters here are part of a segment of consumers who value data over other services. O2 do in fact have some services that are better suited to Public Sector or Local Government etc...

Quote:
“I seem to be one of the few here sticking my neck out that the O2/3 merger will be allowed to go ahead without a major burden of restrictions to make it unfeasable. My reasoning?

* It's clear that Telefonica are looking to exit the UK market, while Hutchinson have been making noises about looking to exit the UK themselves if this deal does not go through. The longer they are both kept waiting on a decision, the less they'll look to making anything more than a slow rate of investment on their networks. Not good for a government in Westminster that is keen to tout its commitment to a "Digital Britain".

* If the merger is off, both companies will likely offload - the UK market is a very competitive one. Arguably too competitive - resulting in thin margins that sees little get invested back into network infrastructure and well as shareholder returns. Selling the network for the right price could allow either party to either help cover deficit holes (Telefonica) or potentially look to target new markets which can give them better ARPU ratios (Hutchinson).”

I would agree here. Of course it's not certain that the merger will go through but I do believe that Telefonica will offload O2 no matter what and at the moment it will be to Hutchison 3G. As discussed before it's clear that some restrictions or conditions will be put in place before the merger is allowed to go ahead.

Quote:
“* Also, who would want to buy either network? BSkyB is often touted for O2, but I'm not convinced. The company has no experience in running an MNO anywhere and unlike their buyout of Easynet a number of years back when LLU was still fledgling with a developing roll out, buying out O2 would see them having to hit the ground running in investing in network infrastructure to play catch-up in the 3G/4G stakes, which could prove costly when their business operations are now a pan-European model (though not their customer one) and having a significant burden of Premier League fees to pay for when trying to squeeze even more money out from pay-TV customers. If Sky were to enter the MNO market in the UK, I'd reckon it might be better for them to start afresh with a roaming agreement outside of their main core areas like 3 had in the mid noughties - and perhaps it would be better for them to be an MVNO first to test the waters, which it appears they will be doing.”

I've never really bought into the whole 'Sky to buy O2' thing either. I think that Sky will be more than happy as an MVNO or partnering with a network to provide OTT services, at least in the short term.
david16
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by Redcoat:
“I'm fortunate enough to have a FTTC line where in live in my village. But if I was living a couple of miles away this would be a potential godsend in terms of data speed compared to ADSL over long lines. 24 months is a wee bit long, but factoring in the cost of £27.50 pm most people would spend at least that for their line rental & landline broadband package anyway. If EE 4G coverage is available it looks a great deal, plus the 50GB allowance would I'd say suit the majority of users. IIRC it's impossible to get "bill shock" with EE MBB as if you run out of your data allowance, you need to purchase a data allowance or wait until the start of the next billing month?
Let's hope it's a sign of EE looking at making a nod to potentially selling MBB as a viable alternative to those via landline - my current contract with Plusnet is up in less than 3 months and with my experience with the 100GB sims I could seriously look to them as an alternative especially with line rental prices being ridiculous these days as well as hardly using my landline phone.”

Does a Now TV box work with a MIFI unit with an MBB sim in it?

It would save taking out a contract with fixed line wifi and also save a fortune in telephone line rental costs in order to receive a TV service that has a lot more channels than freeview. They are selling EE PAYG MBB sims at Amazon with 6GB of data preloaded for 12.50 quid each. Buying 2 of them with the 12GB of data lasting well over a month to avoid the hassle of a contract (and maybe you have too poor a credit rat́ng to enable you to be accepted for a contract anyway) looks like a good bargain.

I would just need a 321 PAYG sim from three to make a few calls and send a few texts.
david16
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by jabbamk1:
“Hi Redcoat,

It seems the experience you've had troubleshooting mobile & broadband issues has allowed you to grasp the complexity of the overall industry as your posts in the past have proved that you know a lot about each network.

Each network has their advantages and I think the reason O2 gets attacked on this forum a lot is because a lot of the posters here are part of a segment of consumers who value data over other services. O2 do in fact have some services that are better suited to Public Sector or Local Government etc...



I would agree here. Of course it's not certain that the merger will go through but I do believe that Telefonica will offload O2 no matter what and at the moment it will be to Hutchison 3G. As discussed before it's clear that some restrictions or conditions will be put in place before the merger is allowed to go ahead.



I've never really bought into the whole 'Sky to buy O2' thing either. I think that Sky will be more than happy as an MVNO or partnering with a network to provide OTT services, at least in the short term.”

O2 and vodafone are vastly inferior to three in terms of quality and amount of data, plus call costs and texts with O2 and vodafone are far more expensive than three.
Stereo Steve
29-12-2015
I also think the 3O2 thing will go ahead. The posturing at the moment is to ensure that conditions can be placed. It's the same as planning law. You can't refuse an application if it meets the right criteria but you can place conditions on it if the EA or Highways don't like it etc. Those conditions may ultimately make it unworkable but these things usually muddle through. I personally think that 3 networks is enough to offer competition as long as they are regulated correctly and carefully monitored for price fixing etc.
d123
29-12-2015
Originally Posted by Stereo Steve:
“I also think the 3O2 thing will go ahead. The posturing at the moment is to ensure that conditions can be placed. It's the same as planning law. You can't refuse an application if it meets the right criteria but you can place conditions on it if the EA or Highways don't like it etc. Those conditions may ultimately make it unworkable but these things usually muddle through. I personally think that 3 networks is enough to offer competition as long as they are regulated correctly and carefully monitored for price fixing etc.”

Have you researched the Telenor/TeliaSonera merger that was declined by the EU regulator just 3 months ago? They don't like the idea of having fewer networks, as they view it as anti-competition. What do you think would have changed since September?

I've highlighted Margethe Vestager's comment about their current thought on these sort of mergers.


Quote:
“STOCKHOLM/PARIS, Sept 11 TeliaSonera and Telenor have abandoned their planned merger in Denmark because of stiff opposition from European regulators, raising concerns that larger mobile telecom deals pending in the UK and Italy might also run into trouble.

The decision, announced by the two companies on Friday, is the first time that regulators have scuppered such a deal since European mobile network operators embarked on an acquisition spree in early 2013.

The rejection also caused investors to worry that EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager was taking a harder line than predecessor Joaquin Almunia, who had approved similar mobile consolidation deals in Austria, Ireland and Germany.

Vestager, who took office last November, said on Friday that Teliasonera and Telenor had not done enough to allay her concerns that reducing the number of mobile network operators in Denmark would have damaged competition and risked higher prices being charged to consumers.

"What we were looking at were very serious concerns. To me it was necessary to have a fourth mobile operator," Vestager told reporters on the sidelines of a conference.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/telia...11H0IU20150911
Zebb
29-12-2015
Predictions; Prices will go up. Three/O2/TEF deal will go ahead. Coverage will improve very slowly. More expensive handsets. More malware and spam. Much 5G hype.
beans0ntoast
30-12-2015
My few predictions:
EE - will turn on VoLTE sometime in 2016 along with 800MHz. 800 will have VoLTE on it in order to run at full power and increase coverage
Quite a lot of sites that haven't been upgraded to 4G will be upgraded, possibly starting with the old Orange 2G/3G masts (and upgrading them to MBNL), and then going onto the MBNL masts.
Might have to start rolling out a bit more 2600MHz but doubt it will be required for at least a couple of years.
The BT/EE deal will go through - as for BT's spectrum, that might have to be sold off?

Speaking of, if BT/EE does go through then could this shake up the Virgin Mobile MVNO? In that case, will they move to Three, O2 or Vodafone?

Three - hopefully they'll sort out their 4G rollout plan. In Leicester, their 4G has been quite slow, so it's either backhaul, capacity, or not enough masts being upgraded in the area.
I'm hoping that the Three/O2 deal will go through, as it will create one network with pretty much complete coverage (access to MBNL and CTIL masts). If the deal doesn't go ahead, Three and O2 may struggle, as I've heard that they don't have the greatest amounts of 4G spectrum.

O2 and Vodafone will no doubt continue their 3G/4G rollout via Cornerstone - from what I've seen, they're just concentrating on towns/cities/places that already had 3G, so let's hope they finally start rolling out some half decent rural 3G coverage.

My predictions, with regards to the status of each network:
1. EE - they have plenty of spectrum in all frequency bands, so they can use 800 for Volte and good coverage/indoor coverage. They can also use 2600 in congested areas. Once all masts have at least 3G (preferably 3G/4G) they can refarm all their 1800 to 4G, to help with capacity.
2. Vodafone - using 800 for widespread coverage and 2600 for capacity. Unless they put 2600 on every mast and use 800 for Volte, their 800 power will have to be restricted so as to stay within the boundaries of 3G900
3. Three and O2 - O2 just has 800, unless they refarm their 2G1800 to 4G. So I can't see their speeds being great. Additionally they will have to restrict the power of 800 to stay within 3G900. (Though, if they put 4G800 on every mast, then there should be no issues.) As for Three, 800 is just for Volte at the moment, and everyone else is having to use the very limited 4G1800 bandwidth - as such, when I last tested the network in Leicester, I found it to be quicker on 3G. They'll have to hope that 3/O2 goes through, so they can use their combined 800 and 1800 to make a decent 4G network.
lightspeed2398
30-12-2015
The T-Mobile USA CEO thought he'd play along too.

Interesting to see and a funny read.

https://newsroom.t-mobile.com/issues...redictions.htm
DevonBloke
30-12-2015
Originally Posted by beans0ntoast:
“Speaking of, if BT/EE does go through then could this shake up the Virgin Mobile MVNO? In that case, will they move to Three, O2 or Vodafone?”

If they move to VO2 there's going to be an awful lot of shit hit a big fan when half the VM population wake up to 2G only!
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