Hi:

As you guys are way more clued up on these things I wondered what the thoughts are on the potential of 3+02 v EE over the next 12-18 months?

Reason is I have £15 AYCE with 3 at the moment for which I have just requested a PAC code as I am fed up with coverage issues in my area.

Im thinking I will move to EE albeit on not as good a contract (10GB Sim only for more money).

However, I used to be with 02 before 3 and didn't have any coverage issues in my area.

Would anyone think it would be worth sticking it out with 3 for a bit longer in the hope things will get better relatively soon or just make the jump to EE?

EE data speeds are definitely a lot faster. I left AYCE 3 last year for EE myself, and although a lot more expensive, the speeds are far better and they dont cap speeds after 3pm like 3 !

I think I would be happier if the 10GB with EE wasn't a complete cutoff but rather a still usable slow speed or something.

AYCE is a big draw, although I don't use loads like some, its a nice safety net.

I just wonder if the contracts is worth keeping in the hope it will make an improvement with O2 coverage. Im not up to speed with different bands/frequencies etc they are all deploying etc

If you are signing up for EE don't forget to go through mobilephonesdirect and use their cashback offer.

As for the network situation, EE is the best bet for the near future and probably longer still. If the 3 O2 merger happens you won't see any sort of network sharing any time soon, we're talking years away, so you are still going to face the same network issues on Three for a long time unless their 4G super voice can help.

Thanks for the info. Super Voice didn't help. 1 (unusable) bar 3G -> No service -> Occasionally a wife of 4G only to instantly go back to 1 bar of 3G etc

Wasn't sure how legit mobile phones direct was tbh.

We won't see many benefits really in the immediate 12-18 month period. If it gets approval in April then the two companies will first need to manage how they are going to merge. As in staff wise, HQ wise then they will need to sort out the network agreements such as Cornerstone vs MBNL then they will need to begin to integrate two networks, one of which is very old in places. Then we will begin to see improvements as a new network is formed out of the two old ones.

However once that is done I think 3o2 could challenge EE in places but the company will have the problem of that both the former companies have been a bit lacking on the investment front really and have a lot of catching up to do. Whilst all of the above is happening Vodafone and EE will be charging on ahead.

Mobilephonesdirect is very reliable. I've just submitted my last cashback claim with them an they've always paid within 14 days. As always with cashback the onus is on you to remember to submit at the right time and a lot of these cashback deals rely on people forgetting to apply so as long as you are organised and set a reminder you will be ok

It depends on what phone you have got and what area you are in. Three Supervoice (800MHz VoLTE) won't help unless you have a compatible phone that also has the Three firmware. And you've got to be in an area that has Supervoice enabled.

The O2 and Three merger might not happen, but if it does (and I hope it does), then it'll take a while before the networks are truly merged (and access is allowed between networks). Remember what happened between Orange and T-Mob to form EE? That's what Three/O2 will be like.

God, Three/O2 will take years.
I think Orange an TM merged 5 years ago and Orange masts are still being integrated now.
I guess it will be ok from the start though since the O2 2G network will instantly become Three's 2G fallback again (as it was before).
Then 3G and 4G networks have to be merged.
Bloody logistical nightmare I would have thought.

Agreed years...we might get roaming, except I'd force it to Three only rather than use O2's 3G I think.

Though the most likely outcome is still going to be a refusal by the EU, the CMA and OFCOM have already voiced their opposition so if the investigation asks for any input it will be a no from both, and I doubt the EU wants to give the TeliaSonera/Telenor merger the chance of an appeal if they suddenly allow 3/o2 which would cause exactly what they refused the Danish merger for (loss of the 4th network).

A very misleading post as 4 to 3's have been approved in Germany Austria and Ireland, and Denmark was approved, subject to sale of radio spectrum and guaranteed wholesale access to enlarged networks for new entrants, however the networks themselves pulled out because they didn't want to make those concessions.

UK conditions could include guaranteed wholesale MVNO access, sale of MVNOs that O2 owns, creation of others, spectrum and all sorts could be on the table.

Telefonica want out either way. I suspect Three would quite like to sell the 50% share in Tesco secretly (Tesco are keen to sell), and gifgaff could go, I don't think Three see it as a big thing. They would probably also set up wholesale agreements or create new MVNOs, there's plenty of options on the table to help ease competition concerns, owning physical kit is one thing, but opening it up to other companies under agreements is something I think they are expecting to be discussing and accepting as part of the approval.

I thought the plan was to essentially force the creation of a new competitor, hence no less competition.

Tesco has 3.5M+ customers, if that is sold by Hutchison 50% and Tesco who own the other 50%, somebody has a nice business there, especially if the conditions of the sale (not merger as people keep calling it) are a wholesale agreement for the new entrant(s).

Could the new Tesco Mobile possibly buy some of the spectrum sold off as part of the O2 sale and become its own MNO?

No, it wouldn't be cost effective or practical to try and run an MNO on such a small amount of spectrum for 3.5M users. However Hutch could have wholesale restrictions on the sale such that they have to allow MVNOs access at fair rates, and there's nothing to stop {insertnamehere} mobile from winning good amounts of spectrum in future releases.

The name would have to change if Tesco sold their half, but not if Hutch sold their half to somebody else and Tesco remained the 50% shareholder. Virgin might be interested as they could add 3.5M to their existing MVNO and possibly with a guaranteed wholesale fair deal, that would create quite a big new player. Imagine a more powerful 6M mobile customer Virgin Media, BT, Vodafone and Hutchison all in the market.

Tesco mobile isnt part owned by Hutchinson but o2.

Correct, never suggested it was owned by Hutchison now, but it will be if the sale goes through (which is agreed and waiting for competition approval). My comments were in relation to conditions which could be attached to the sale, like the sale of the half share in Tesco Mobile, creation of new MVNOs, wholesale access requirements, or spectrum sales. All things which have been required for sales to go through in other countries.

In Ireland a new MVNO had to be created to go from 4 to 3, in Germany a 4 to 3 happened, same in Austria 4 networks to 3, and in Denmark 4 to 3 was approved subject to conditions, but the 2 companies pulled out. To be clear the Danish merger was not refused, the companies pulled out because the conditions were deemed to be too great for them. Here in the UK there are assets which would be nice concessions like sale of Tesco mobile shares, gifgaff, MVNO creation, wholesale access and others.

In Denmark it was a merger, here is isn't. The sale is aggreed subject to regulatory approval, so there is only 1 party to pull out if the concessions are deemed to be too overbearing, but there are also concessions expected, they didn't go into this expecting immediate approval with no conditions.

You need to read things more carefully. It was never suggested that Hutch do own Tesco Mobile. It was all hypothetical.

Forgot to mention it was iPhone 6 with latest updates etc.

Decided to move to EE. Hopefully sim arrived tomorrow.

The only thing misleading is your ability to write as if you are a know-it-all. The Denmark merger was the FIRST merger to be investigated by the current Commissioner, what happened under the previous administration has no bearing on the current Commission, and if you had followed the deal you would have seen that one of the things she said was that the market requires a FOURTH NETWORK. It also never received any form of EU approval.


http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release...15-5627_en.htm


http://www.wsj.com/articles/telenor-...val-1441963510

Sometimes you should stop acting like you think you are David Dyson's PA...

Of course the 3/o2 deal is a merger, are you confusing the 3/o2 deal which is a merger with the BT/EE deal which isn't a merger?

You are right, if the parent didn't have any existing holdings within the UK market it would be classed as a new purchase. Seeing as Hutchison already owns Three and wants to buy O2 it is a merger as the proposals put forward even suggest that network infrastructure would be shared.

I concur with your earlier opinion, the opposition from domestic regulators will set the direction of travel the EC takes. Government is soft on the idea, behind the seens they are concerned about the drop in competition but also spectrum licence revenues.

There are several international companies circling the EU telecoms market, AT&T is known to be one and LibertyGlobal the other. If as we have all said the merger fails, I don't think Telefonica will have trouble finding a buyer for their UK outfit.

O2 would be a good fit for either of those companies, good market share and quite profitable, even in the face of O2 having about 50% of customers not using smartphones. There is ample opportunity for growth should someone else purchase O2, its because of that user base. With Three there isn't opportunity for growth, it has stalled, customer base remains the same if not flat. It also has the problem of coverage and capacity, in other words its shit. No one will buy the company unless at a knockdown price as it would require massive investment. O2 not so much, given they have they are the second largest operator, its customer base is attractive and investment would still be significant, after a year or two it would pay for itself.

I think that's a definite, o2 could make a pretty good investment for someone, when/if the 3 merger deal fails I can see Telefonica putting it on the market at a knockdown price and someone with the cash to invest could turn o2 around and make it a decent network.

O2 need to invest big in this years spectrum auction though, they really need additional spectrum for the future. Will Telefonica allow this if they still hold the purse strings though?

O2 would still fetch a good price £8-£10bn I think, its no secret Telefonica wants to sell and I suspect they may even go lower than that. There won't be a shortage of buyers thats for sure, AT&T tried to buy Vodafone almost 2 years ago, I think they would be a prime candidate.

O2 might come up smelling of roses later this year, if BT/EE is forced to divest some of the 2600 spectrum then they would be prime candidates to get that at a knockdown rate. The rest have a broad portfolio of spectrum, O2 doesn't, I would hope OFCOM would see that and allow O2 first refusal.

The 2300 is later this year? What about the 700?

I think allowing O2 UK to bid for more spectrum will increase its value by about 2% - 3%, in that sense Telefonica might sanction buying more as long as the UK business can sustain it using revenue generated here.

I am concerned for Three, a few years ago they were market leading in terms of price and packages like the one plan. Now they are struggling under the weight of people taking advantage of those features.

Now that being said, should the merger fail I think Hutchison will want to offload it ASAP, another company buying it would take too long to go through the regulatory process.

They said should the merger happen the combined company would be hived off and put on the stockmarket. I still think that is the likely course of action should it fail. Hiving it off would mean it not being a drain on the balance sheet of the parent company. TBH that is probably the only way Hutchison can get rid of it quickly. Some conservative forecasts value Thee UK £3-£5bn, others as high as £8-£10bn. Personally I think its inbetween those amounts.

In one sense O2 UK's future is secure, what about Three? Thats an even harder question to answer (aside from my rather inaccurate guessing).