I don't think you are all that inaccurate tbh, Three is probably the weakest in the medium term, as you say.

This years auction is for 2300Mhz and 3400Mhz.


http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/bin...memorandum.pdf

No 2300 for NI, I see.

It didn't get EU approval because the companies pulled out and decided not to proceed. I see you've just resorted to abuse and name calling now. All I'll say is that I WAS proven right, from 2012 -2013 I called a lot of what happened with the sale of O2 assets, the Ireland situation, the rebranding and end of the O2 brand over there etc etc. I called them all. Others (will remain nameless) all told me no, very unlikely, no I was wrong, the O2 brand is too strong, no on this... no on that....

What has actually happened is exactly what I posted about.

The facts of this sale and approval are....

Germany 4 to 3
Austria 4 to 3
Ireland 4 to 3
Denmark, the companies pulled out rather than make the concessions required

Concessions are expected as part of this deal and there are assets that can be split from the main O2 business and sold, assets which have millions of customers. There are also concessions which can be made to help increase market competition, as the number of marketing companies and mobile companies with a customer base is equally important as the number that run infrastructure. Wholesale agreements may be mandated or spectrum sale or ringfence from the next auctions or sale of parts of the business could all help get sale through.

It isn't a forgone conclusion though no.

Hi

Any reason as to why Northern Ireland wont get the 2300Mhz Spectrum?

Thanks

Baz

No, first I saw it mentioned was in the OFCOM paperwork, as the spectrum was originally MOD perhaps they have kept it in use in NI (complete supposition, but I can't think of any other reason).

Hi

MOD?? Ministry of Defence or something else?

Baz

Ministry of defence yes

That's correct. Ofcom just say ongoing MOD use but they're not saying for what (maybe they weren't told themselves)!

There are also some minor restrictions within GB mostly around the Hebrides. It's better than the original proposal though as in that one Northern Ireland didn't get any 3400MHz spectrum either.

I will be surprised if this deal goes ahead without significant restrictions being placed upon it. The Germany deal is not a good example because the networks in that country if you look closely all have roughly same amount of customers even after merger. That is not going be same situation in UK at all.

I would be surprised if they were allowed keep all there 800MHz for one thing. Networks can't even truly claim they need more than 2x10MHz of lowband for LTE prime example of that is AT&T and Verizon they both manage perfectly fine on 2x10MHz 700MHz LTE. Because they have built strong Midband LTE networks and that is the crucial thing with LTE. Maybe keep the 2x5MHz as required spectrum to sell for a 4th network.

Even a combined O2/3 will only have 2x20.8MHz of Midband spectrum and no highband. Obviously they could pick some 2300MHz up in auction later in year but with around 30 Million customers think they will be dubious in London.

AT&T won't buy O2 they can't really afford another 10 billion debt at present they had to pay massively over what they thought in the AWS-3 auctions to make sure they had enough midband spectrum for the future. They have just brought DirecTV which wasn't cheap and they have brought Mexican networks and spectrum and they are building out those networks completely stripping them out in some places.

We both know they would have do the same to O2 I just don't think they would think it was worth the return at present with everything else they are doing. They have had to pledge to deliver FTTH to about 15-20 Million houses as well.

I wouldn't bet Liberty global out though would make a nice investment to go along with there cable assets in the UK. They certainly have available capital at present.

I don't think this would surprise all that many people if it happened.

Forgot mention something about AT&T they have the 600MHz auction coming up in March and that is probably going be 8-10 billion dollars for them so definetely wouldn't be looking at O2 if deal falls through.


Agreed ive just remembered maybe you can confirm has Three referred the possible buyout of Wind Italy to EU Commission yet?

The 3/Wind deal is a strange one, as it's not a buyout in the normal sense (the new company will be a 50:50 joint venture between CKHutch and Vimpelcom) I'm not sure where it's going. It apparently passed the possibility of veto by the Italian government with undisclosed conditions and then went totally quiet. I don't think there has been any further publicity since September last year. I would still expect it to have to get EU approval sometime this year.

So it's like EE and Vodafone Australia didn't realise it was like that. Surprised Vimpelcom wants remain in Italy. Imagine as it's still reducing amount of competition and networks in Italy it would need EU Approval EE still did.

Granted you have made that point numerous times, however I have always raised the issue of Market Share being a problem. You say otherwise, yet somehow you never seem to be able to say which networks became the biggest through merger/acquisition or natural monopoly.

Most of those mergers you state didn't make them outright largest network.....where as O2/Three would make it THE largest network with near 50% of the market, it would prove a stumbling block.

The Germany situation is te best example, when Telefonica was allowed to proceed with the pruchase of E+ it didn't distort the market signigicantly. It still only made them 3rd largest, with DT and Vod 1st and 2nd respectively. I believe the same is true to those other markets you mentioned.

Plenty of people have been making very sensible points which somehow you refuse to acknowledge. d123 made a very valid point regarding the change in mentality by the EC, it seems to have a far more combative commissioner who sees more players in the market as vital for strong competition.

Regarding the merger of the Danish networks, it was the EC who refused it on competition grounds. They didn't want to see a reduction in the number of MNO, thus the only option was for a 4th to be created from the merger.......they made such a demand knowing it was never going to fly and thus the merger proposal would fail.

The direction of travel currently is OFCOM & CMA are against the merger FULL STOP. Government is playing coy at the moment, though several senior civil servants at the Business and Culture departments are pushing for the Government to come out against it. Naturally the Government doesn't want to interfere with the sale process believing 3 regulators being more than capable to do the job.

I should say this, the merger of O2/Three is unique in the EU, it effectively would make the combined entity control almost half the market and them some (through MNVOs and so on). The EU/EC are not going to ignore the concerns of domestic regulators, given both entities on these shores have come out against the deal it makes that mountain O2/Three need to climb even taller. We also overlook the fact of consumer groups in this, they came out in opposition to the EE merger I should expect them to have their 2p worth as well.

The regulatory environment has changed on a continental and domestic level, both regimes have been given more teeth so they can tear the proposals apart should they need to. I think it highly unlikely this merger would go through, the lady in charge of Telecoms will likely set terms so high/harsh there is no way it would ever get off the ground. Again if the trifector comes out in opposition (2 already have) then its dead in the water.

But please if you could elaborate on those areas you list which created a total monopoly from the merger of 2 networks I would be very grateful.

Aye up, that's a well written post of the current position.

When the auction takes place Three and O2 (or the combined 3/O2, if the merger happens) are going to need some of that highband spectrum in order to have enough capacity on the network. 3400 would do lovely for capacity but won't have the coverage. 2300 would be better for coverage.

Are there any phones out there that support 4G2300 or 4G3400?

The AT&T iPhone 6s/6s Plus does 2300MHz.

That's FDD Band 30 though. We'll be using Band 40 TDD won't we?

Our iPhone 6/6S support TDD 2300MHz as well.

Not necessarily, they might not aim for the premium end EE level speeds, I don't think they'll just compete on speed. I think it's a minority who want the fastest speed tests and make that the deciding factor.

Combined or not they will still be the same size and the sale doesn't necessarily affect the capacity. They have only half rolled out 4G so far, plenty more sites to do.

Well?

3-2-1 plans on the way to Tesco Mobile?

Well what?

I've got better things to do that read massive verses and reply to each line.

You know we've disagreed before and you know you've got it massively wrong before. I can go and dig out the posts, I have literally 2 mins to post this before a meeting, but here's a classic example, I could find much better if i have 10 or 15 minutes.

http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showp...1&postcount=24

I have answered some of those questions before months ago. I'm not going to answer the same things again now.

No you haven't answered those questions before. Being blunt mate if you are going to comment with some authority at least back it up with the facts. I have had this run in with you before and you fail every time.

Why the hello you are linking my own post is beyond me, if anything it supports my assertions.

Thine Wonk likes to write as if he is the worlds leading expert and authority with an "inside track" of knowledge. I haven't seen him back up his "expertise" with provable facts in all the time he has been on the forum, if a person makes enough guesses the odds are they will eventually get something right (the infinite monkey theorem).

It would be nice to see some provable facts with verifiable links, so I'm also quite interested in what comes next...

on O2 Ireland:

You just keep digging, according to you you're the know it all and I just post rubbish. Your posts don't bear this out though, but strangely mine do, figure that one out