I see even Telefonica is having doubts about this going through.


And really looking down the sofa for change


https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow...ory-costs.html

That's from November, but yes I'm sure they knew there's a risk it would be rejected and have a backup plan

I believe that there are ways of alleviating competition concerns and compromise to get it through though as listed previously. We'll have to wait and see the outcome, bear in mind other big markets in the EU have 3 and the points I listed previously.

Never mind

Now do you need to be reminded how market share is typically calculated again or are we done with that one?

At one point I remember you didn't realise it was by sales / revenue and gave an inflated percentage O2 / Three.

Might it be possible they may even list/hive off the UK unit?

Its funny isn't it, Hutchison wants to purchase O2, combine the companies and then list them on the stockmarket. Yet it could be the case they both do it separately should the merger not go ahead.

Were that to happen though, I would be concerned for the future direction of UK Telecoms. 2 potential disposals within a simiar time frame would damage the value of the market in Britain, granted EE and Vodafone can ride that out with their huge cash piles. Three and O2 would be significantly tainted, I suppose thats free market economics 101.

It's not a merger, I don't know why people keep incorrectly saying merger.

It must be a possibility if things don't work out for them, the parent group has a very big hole in its finances. They've only managed to reduce their debt from around €55bn to just under €50bn in 4 years, things must be getting tight for them,

No that wasn't it, I asked you in respect of market share, which networks (in those mentioned countries) became the largest through aquisition/merger or natural monopoly?

Then I made a point saying in this instance market share amongst many other factors would contribution to the merger being refused.

I have also said this merger proposal is very unique in the EU. There are no other markets in EU countries which are the same as the UK.

I also said the CMA and OFCOM will set the direction of travel in which the EU regulators would travel, thats not to say they would refuse it, it just sets the terms of the arguement.

I haven't gotten my market share mixed up with revenue, I stated and backed that up by a factually accurate article stating what the final numbers would be should the merger proceed.

At no point have I ever been confused. I will correct myself mind you, in that post of mine you linked to, it seems the reverse has happened, O2 has become ok, appearing to have bottomed out on customer churn and acquistions. Three are flat, no real growth in recent months and a telecoms network that is struggling under the weight of people using more data. Three is outcast at the moment, they a bloody struggling as that old view of coverage being shit is becoming true again.

Three's revenues grew significantly in the last 2 years and are on track for good results next month when they report, a yearly profit for 2015 of £350M is expected, up on last year.

Yes, the UK is unique, this deal is also unique in that it has concessions that can be made like spin off of Tesco at a great time when Tesco want to sell, wholesale opportunities, but if it doesn't go through Telefonica will sell to somebody else and Hutch can consider their options, with revenue growth they can choose to stay or sell.

There aren't coverage issues with Three (no more than the others) the network has achieved a lot being so small as well. Right at the bottom of the complaints list with offshore support, lowering costs which is helping revenue growth, handling so much of the UK's data etc. Three customers aren't the same audience like this tech forum, ordinary customers are using data for everyday tasks, which is what the majority of customers care about, not tracking it, speed testing it etc.

I thought I would check, have you told the CMA?


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/c...o2three-merger

Have you told the EU Commission?


http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-6251_en.htm

Have you told OFCOM?


http://media.ofcom.org.uk/speeches/2...consolidation/

How about the Cabinet Offfice?


https://assets.digital.cabinet-offic...submission.pdf

so are they all wrong in the all knowing world of Wonk?

Fair point if they are calling it a merger.

I guess even though O2 is selling, it's a merger of licences. I'll take that one... I am willing to admit when I'm wrong.

You would do well to take as position in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet!

I doubt we'll see a normal merge like Three has done in the past.. Too many agreements and issues to resolve with regulators.

A critical issue for O2+3 in my mind remains that of one operator (or at least one owning group) straddling the two supposedly competing mobile infrastructure share agreements in the UK (Cornerstone and MBNL). I haven't yet read a convincing take on how this issue could be overcome.

I appreciate the two sharing agreements are different, and there are also differences within the sharing agreements (e.g. in MBNL, the full 3G RAN share versus the lesser 4G sharing arrangements), but the overall point still remains.

I think inn respect of that, O2/Three is an extraordinary merger, there hasn't been anything as big as this in the EU telecoms market for years. I think one of the first was when Vodafone bought Mannesmann (and Orange). There hasn't been that many deals since, at least not within the same market.

I reckon that with the BT deal to take over EE having been given approval without any notable conditions, the proposed buy out of O2 by Hutchinson and merging it into 3's network is more likely to be approved as issues regarding spectrum now seem to be less important.

Different authorities doing it though. Bearing in mind I think I saw somewhere that the CMA didn't consider spectrum until Ofcom told them to look at it, I think I trust the EC to make a better decision than the UK authorities.

You are also trying to compare a purchase deal of a network with the merger deal of 2 networks, unfortunately you are comparing apples and oranges..

I still think the 2x5MHz of 800MHz that Three has might be required to be divested so that a fourth entrant would have lowband spectrum to compete with. You have remember that is the reason Three got it in first place.

There biggest worry is they will be biggest network in UK with a smaller amount of spectrum resources than EE and only about same as Vodafone who will have nearly half the customers they will.

BT wasn't a mobile operator until buying EE (running an MVNO doesn't count).

Both Three and O2 are physical networks that exist separately with quite large customer bases. Joining them together would give significant market power to the combined entity.

Three would argue that they would be left unable to operate a workable network if that was the decided remedy. Yet one reason this is so complex and why people think it may not happen.

That is balls even AT&T and Verizon manage run a lowband LTE network on 2x10MHz of spectrum. If they can Three certainly can and hopefully the EU Commission properly look at other countries. There is very few who run 2x15MHz Lowband LTE Networks.

I was assuming they'd be told to release the 2x10 that O2 own, and keep the 2x5 that 3 own in any merged entity. That would allow a replacement fourth entrant to pick up the 2x10. (Talking 800 only here).

2x5 may not be sufficient with the 2x15 that Three already own with the expected 38 million users on a combined network??

Oh I don't think they will be told to release the 2x10 O2 owns i think it would be the 2x5 Three currently owns. There 800MHz Layer for both networks will be the main.

I know what you mean, but I think the lines are now starting to blur more these days with all talk of convergence & multiplay - today's decision on BT buying EE puts BT in a strong position overall in terms of telecom provisions in both mobile, landline and TV. Meanwhile Vodafone are dipping their toes into landline broadband. BT can offer quaplay while Vodafone can do triple play and might even look at quad in the future. On the other hand O2 have withdrawn from landline while 3 signal no intentions to get involved other than stick with mobile. No LLU, No TV...

I still stand by from what I said in the 2016 predictions thread, the merger will be allowed to go ahead albeit with some conditions.