It has been reported today that 2015 was the hottest year on record by far.
Surely strong evidence of climate change?
Or is boiled frog syndrome all powerful?
Surely strong evidence of climate change?
Or is boiled frog syndrome all powerful?
2015 The Hottest Year on Record
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Originally Posted by HenryGarten:
“It has been reported today that 2015 was the hottest year on record by far.
Surely strong evidence of climate change.
Or is boiled frog syndrome all powerful?”
“It has been reported today that 2015 was the hottest year on record by far.
Surely strong evidence of climate change.
Or is boiled frog syndrome all powerful?”
Don't believe it.
It was 1976...I was there.
Originally Posted by DSCarter:
“Don't believe it.
It was 1976...I was there.”
“Don't believe it.
It was 1976...I was there.”
You were present over the whole planet, all that year?
Are you omniscient as well as omnipresent?
Originally Posted by njp:
“You were present over the whole planet, all that year?
Are you omniscient as well as omnipresent?”
“You were present over the whole planet, all that year?
Are you omniscient as well as omnipresent?”
No, just incredibly insular
1976 was very hot. All the grass turned yellow, an everything.
2015 was very cack. All the grass stayed green.
QED
2015 was very cack. All the grass stayed green.
QED
Originally Posted by RobinOfLoxley:
“1976 was very hot. All the grass turned yellow, an everything.
2015 was very cack. All the grass stayed green.
QED”
“1976 was very hot. All the grass turned yellow, an everything.
2015 was very cack. All the grass stayed green.
QED”
That was Britain. This is the world.
Are you going to tell us if you think the early anthropocene hypothesis is correct? If you do, what do you imagine it means for the future of the climate under various CO2 emission scenarios? In particular, how do you think this differs from the conclusions of mainstream science?
Forgive my ignorance but I can only comment on the UK where I spent all of 2015. I have a picture on my phone of the weather and temperature on 26th July - it was raining heavily and was 13 degrees. Appalling for what is meant to be summer. If it's supposedly getting warmer why are our summers now, pretty much without exception, so cold and miserable?
Originally Posted by MissCharleyP:
“Forgive my ignorance but I can only comment on the UK where I spent all of 2015. I have a picture on my phone of the weather and temperature on 26th July - it was raining heavily and was 13 degrees. Appalling for what is meant to be summer. If it's supposedly getting warmer why are our summers now, pretty much without exception, so cold and miserable?”
“Forgive my ignorance but I can only comment on the UK where I spent all of 2015. I have a picture on my phone of the weather and temperature on 26th July - it was raining heavily and was 13 degrees. Appalling for what is meant to be summer. If it's supposedly getting warmer why are our summers now, pretty much without exception, so cold and miserable?”
Well you said it in the first line. This thread is about the whole world. And the previous summer here was excellent.
Obviously can't speak for the whole planet but it certainly wasn't where I was. It was an awful Summer. Maybe it was the wettest - I could understand that.
Recent floods aside there was a lot of heavy rainfall in May and June.
Recent floods aside there was a lot of heavy rainfall in May and June.
Originally Posted by shackfan:
“Well you said it in the first line. This thread is about the whole world. And the previous summer here was excellent.”
“Well you said it in the first line. This thread is about the whole world. And the previous summer here was excellent.”
Fair enough. I don't remember the previous summer being 'excellent' though. I remember a pretty hot week and that's it.
Originally Posted by HenryGarten:
“It has been reported today that 2015 was the hottest year on record by far.
Surely strong evidence of climate change?”
“It has been reported today that 2015 was the hottest year on record by far.
Surely strong evidence of climate change?”
A thread for those conspiracy theories!
Originally Posted by MissCharleyP:
“Fair enough. I don't remember the previous summer being 'excellent' though. I remember a pretty hot week and that's it.”
“Fair enough. I don't remember the previous summer being 'excellent' though. I remember a pretty hot week and that's it.”
You could always look at what the Met Office has recorded. You'll see that July 2015 started off very hot, but became much cooler, ending up as cooler and rainier (140%) than the long term average, whereas July 2014 was the 8th warmest July on record - and the equal 6th sunniest (129%), with below average rainfall for the UK as a whole (83%), but above average rainfall in some regions.
UK weather summary for July 2015:
"At the start of July there was very hot air over the UK, particularly England, with a humid southerly flow from the continent. This gave record-breaking July temperatures in parts of the south-east, and the highest temperature anywhere in the UK since August 2003. After this, however, the month was typified by a westerly Atlantic weather type, bringing cool and rather changeable weather generally, with rain or showers for much of the time, and only a few dry and warm days. There were some cold nights, especially in the last few days, and overall it was rather a cool month despite the hot start.
The provisional UK mean temperature was 14.4 °C, which is 0.7 °C below the 1981-2010 long-term average. It was coldest relative to average in the west and north. Rainfall was above average over most of the country, with parts of Scotland, East Anglia and elsewhere approaching double the normal rainfall amount; near-normal totals were restricted to parts of the Midlands and south-east England. The overall UK rainfall total was 140% of average. Sunshine amounts were unremarkable generally, with a UK total amounting to 96% of average.
The UK monthly extremes were as follows: A maximum temperature of 36.7 °C was recorded at Heathrow (Greater London) on the 1st, a new UK record for July. A minimum temperature of -0.6 °C was recorded at Katesbridge (County Down) on the 15th. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 GMT on the 17th, 87.1 mm of rain fell at Cambridge Botanic Gardens. A wind gust of 60 mph was recorded at Needles (Isle of Wight) on the 26th."
UK weather summary for July 2014:
"Temperatures for July were above average across the UK, mainly due to warm days with many days having maximum temperatures above 25 °C, especially in the south-east. However, night-time temperatures were closer to average. There was plenty of warm, dry, sunny weather, but with the warmth leading to thunderstorms and localised downpours at times; the heaviest rain was generally across the south-east and East Anglia.
The UK mean temperature was 16.3 °C, which is 1.2 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term average. This ranks as the equal-8th warmest July in a series from 1910, but was not as warm as July 2013. July 2014 was the 8th consecutive month with above average temperatures for the UK. Rainfall was rather below average overall, particularly across Devon, Cornwall and south-west Wales, but well above average in parts of East Anglia. The UK overall received 83% of average rainfall. It was a sunny month for most areas, especially the west and north, with 129% of average sunshine hours for the UK overall, making it the equal-sixth sunniest July in a series since 1929 - though not as sunny as July 2013.
A maximum temperature of 32.3 °C was recorded at Gravesend (Kent) on the 18th. A minimum temperature of 0.8 °C was recorded at Katesbridge (County Down) on the 1st. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 GMT on the 5th, 92.6 mm of rain fell at Ennerdale, Black Sail (Cumbria). A wind gust of 59 mph were recorded at Warcop Range (Cumbria) on the 18th."
Originally Posted by Steve_James1:
“A thread for those conspiracy theories!”
“A thread for those conspiracy theories!
”
You will be citing Piers Corbyn next.
Originally Posted by njp:
“You were present over the whole planet, all that year?”
“You were present over the whole planet, all that year?”
Satellites were, a few years later..
Quote:
“Are you omniscient as well as omnipresent?”
“Are you omniscient as well as omnipresent?”
That's the job of the climate 'scientists'. NASA chap says don't trust those pesky satellites, trust in the thermometers! Which is perhaps an odd position for a NASA chap to take. But that's politics for you.
According to the satellites though, 2015's looking likely to be 3rd warmest in the satellite record.
Originally Posted by njp:
“You could always look at what the Met Office has recorded. You'll see that July 2015 started off very hot, but became much cooler, ending up as cooler and rainier (140%) than the long term average, whereas July 2014 was the 8th warmest July on record - and the equal 6th sunniest (129%), with below average rainfall for the UK as a whole (83%), but above average rainfall in some regions.
UK weather summary for July 2015:
"At the start of July there was very hot air over the UK, particularly England, with a humid southerly flow from the continent. This gave record-breaking July temperatures in parts of the south-east, and the highest temperature anywhere in the UK since August 2003. After this, however, the month was typified by a westerly Atlantic weather type, bringing cool and rather changeable weather generally, with rain or showers for much of the time, and only a few dry and warm days. There were some cold nights, especially in the last few days, and overall it was rather a cool month despite the hot start.
The provisional UK mean temperature was 14.4 °C, which is 0.7 °C below the 1981-2010 long-term average. It was coldest relative to average in the west and north. Rainfall was above average over most of the country, with parts of Scotland, East Anglia and elsewhere approaching double the normal rainfall amount; near-normal totals were restricted to parts of the Midlands and south-east England. The overall UK rainfall total was 140% of average. Sunshine amounts were unremarkable generally, with a UK total amounting to 96% of average.
The UK monthly extremes were as follows: A maximum temperature of 36.7 °C was recorded at Heathrow (Greater London) on the 1st, a new UK record for July. A minimum temperature of -0.6 °C was recorded at Katesbridge (County Down) on the 15th. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 GMT on the 17th, 87.1 mm of rain fell at Cambridge Botanic Gardens. A wind gust of 60 mph was recorded at Needles (Isle of Wight) on the 26th."
UK weather summary for July 2014:
"Temperatures for July were above average across the UK, mainly due to warm days with many days having maximum temperatures above 25 °C, especially in the south-east. However, night-time temperatures were closer to average. There was plenty of warm, dry, sunny weather, but with the warmth leading to thunderstorms and localised downpours at times; the heaviest rain was generally across the south-east and East Anglia.
The UK mean temperature was 16.3 °C, which is 1.2 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term average. This ranks as the equal-8th warmest July in a series from 1910, but was not as warm as July 2013. July 2014 was the 8th consecutive month with above average temperatures for the UK. Rainfall was rather below average overall, particularly across Devon, Cornwall and south-west Wales, but well above average in parts of East Anglia. The UK overall received 83% of average rainfall. It was a sunny month for most areas, especially the west and north, with 129% of average sunshine hours for the UK overall, making it the equal-sixth sunniest July in a series since 1929 - though not as sunny as July 2013.
A maximum temperature of 32.3 °C was recorded at Gravesend (Kent) on the 18th. A minimum temperature of 0.8 °C was recorded at Katesbridge (County Down) on the 1st. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 GMT on the 5th, 92.6 mm of rain fell at Ennerdale, Black Sail (Cumbria). A wind gust of 59 mph were recorded at Warcop Range (Cumbria) on the 18th."”
“You could always look at what the Met Office has recorded. You'll see that July 2015 started off very hot, but became much cooler, ending up as cooler and rainier (140%) than the long term average, whereas July 2014 was the 8th warmest July on record - and the equal 6th sunniest (129%), with below average rainfall for the UK as a whole (83%), but above average rainfall in some regions.
UK weather summary for July 2015:
"At the start of July there was very hot air over the UK, particularly England, with a humid southerly flow from the continent. This gave record-breaking July temperatures in parts of the south-east, and the highest temperature anywhere in the UK since August 2003. After this, however, the month was typified by a westerly Atlantic weather type, bringing cool and rather changeable weather generally, with rain or showers for much of the time, and only a few dry and warm days. There were some cold nights, especially in the last few days, and overall it was rather a cool month despite the hot start.
The provisional UK mean temperature was 14.4 °C, which is 0.7 °C below the 1981-2010 long-term average. It was coldest relative to average in the west and north. Rainfall was above average over most of the country, with parts of Scotland, East Anglia and elsewhere approaching double the normal rainfall amount; near-normal totals were restricted to parts of the Midlands and south-east England. The overall UK rainfall total was 140% of average. Sunshine amounts were unremarkable generally, with a UK total amounting to 96% of average.
The UK monthly extremes were as follows: A maximum temperature of 36.7 °C was recorded at Heathrow (Greater London) on the 1st, a new UK record for July. A minimum temperature of -0.6 °C was recorded at Katesbridge (County Down) on the 15th. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 GMT on the 17th, 87.1 mm of rain fell at Cambridge Botanic Gardens. A wind gust of 60 mph was recorded at Needles (Isle of Wight) on the 26th."
UK weather summary for July 2014:
"Temperatures for July were above average across the UK, mainly due to warm days with many days having maximum temperatures above 25 °C, especially in the south-east. However, night-time temperatures were closer to average. There was plenty of warm, dry, sunny weather, but with the warmth leading to thunderstorms and localised downpours at times; the heaviest rain was generally across the south-east and East Anglia.
The UK mean temperature was 16.3 °C, which is 1.2 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term average. This ranks as the equal-8th warmest July in a series from 1910, but was not as warm as July 2013. July 2014 was the 8th consecutive month with above average temperatures for the UK. Rainfall was rather below average overall, particularly across Devon, Cornwall and south-west Wales, but well above average in parts of East Anglia. The UK overall received 83% of average rainfall. It was a sunny month for most areas, especially the west and north, with 129% of average sunshine hours for the UK overall, making it the equal-sixth sunniest July in a series since 1929 - though not as sunny as July 2013.
A maximum temperature of 32.3 °C was recorded at Gravesend (Kent) on the 18th. A minimum temperature of 0.8 °C was recorded at Katesbridge (County Down) on the 1st. In the 24 hours ending at 0900 GMT on the 5th, 92.6 mm of rain fell at Ennerdale, Black Sail (Cumbria). A wind gust of 59 mph were recorded at Warcop Range (Cumbria) on the 18th."”
I highly doubt the uk is ever going to be heading towards widespread very hot temperatures such as 37 to 44 degrees C, sustained or otherwise like you see in the USA, India or Australia.
Even those very hot 100 farenheit temperatures that hit Kent and clipping the edge of east sussex early July last year was a one or 2 hour wonder one one single afternoon once every several years.
Also there’s no relationship between any warm sunny summer weather and mild wet and windy weather we get in the winter months because a warm/hot summer is no guarantee of a mild winter to come nor does a mild winter guarantee a warm/hot summer a few months later. They are 2 totally different weather types that normally happen 2 seasons apart from each other don’t go hand in hand.
Originally Posted by david16:
“ They are 2 totally different weather types that don’t go hand in hand.”
“ They are 2 totally different weather types that don’t go hand in hand.”
Yup. Our weather is mostly governed by the Atlantic and jetstream.. neither of which seem to be doing anything out of the ordinary. Some features are predictable though, ie this-
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.word...r-down-to-0-1/
At 5pm yesterday, electricity generation from wind farms dropped to a paltry 72 MW, just 0.1% of total demand of 52.1 GW.
The Scots should be cheering for warming, as their wind farms aren't going to help keep them warm..
Originally Posted by Jellied Eel:
“Satellites were, a few years later.. ”
“Satellites were, a few years later.. ”
So not remotely relevant to the point being discussed. Par for the course with you.
Quote:
“ That's the job of the climate 'scientists'. NASA chap says don't trust those pesky satellites, trust in the thermometers! Which is perhaps an odd position for a NASA chap to take. But that's politics for you.”
“ That's the job of the climate 'scientists'. NASA chap says don't trust those pesky satellites, trust in the thermometers! Which is perhaps an odd position for a NASA chap to take. But that's politics for you.”
Well, there does seem to be a bit of a problem with the satellite data in recent years, and given the number and complexity of the adjustments that have to be made to it, and the fact that satellites do not in any case measure surface temperatures, where most of us live, preferring the surface data would seem to be the most sensible option.
Indeed, Carl Mears says this:
"My particular dataset (RSS tropospheric temperatures from MSU/AMSU satellites) show less warming than would be expected when compared to the surface temperatures. All datasets contain errors. In this case, I would trust the surface data a little more because the difference between the long term trends in the various surface datasets (NOAA, NASA GISS, HADCRUT, Berkeley etc) are closer to each other than the long term trends from the different satellite datasets. This suggests that the satellite datasets contain more “structural uncertainty” than the surface dataset."
Originally Posted by david16:
“I highly doubt the uk is ever going to be heading towards widespread very hot temperatures such as 37 to 44 degrees C, sustained or otherwise like you see in the USA, India or Australia.”
“I highly doubt the uk is ever going to be heading towards widespread very hot temperatures such as 37 to 44 degrees C, sustained or otherwise like you see in the USA, India or Australia.”
How did you manage to infer that this is what I think from my post that you quoted in full? All I was doing was pointing out that one poster's memory/belief about what the last two Julys were like could be checked against what the Met Office had recorded for those two months. I made no "editorial" comment of any kind!
Originally Posted by njp:
“..and the fact that satellites do not in any case measure surface temperatures, where most of us live, preferring the surface data would seem to be the most sensible option.”
“..and the fact that satellites do not in any case measure surface temperatures, where most of us live, preferring the surface data would seem to be the most sensible option.”
Yep. We all live between runways at Heathrow. Source of previous 'record' temperatures. Preferring the surface temperature is politically expedient, especially when you can control the records. Like NASA's previous claim of a 'record' for last year, which was only 38% likely..
Quote:
“Indeed, Carl Mears says this:”
“Indeed, Carl Mears says this:”
http://www.remss.com/blog/recent-slo...l-temperatures
As a data scientist, I am among the first to acknowledge that all climate datasets likely contain some errors. However, I have a hard time believing that both the satellite and the surface temperature datasets have errors large enough to account for the model/observation differences.
Which is the more expensive problem. At least the satellite data are compared to balloon data,
Kent is a totally different climate to the rest of the UK and should not be counting so strongly towards uk climate figures the way they are, epecially their summer temperatures such as 35 degrees C and in excess under any sustained high pressure. Kent skews the uk climate stats to make it seem as though it’s warmer than it really is.
They get the hot weather in the summer first before the rest of the uk when that continental high moves into the uk, and are also last to lose the hot weather when the high slips back into the continent. They are also warmer or hotter than the rest of the uk in any warm or hot spell with them being so close to the continent.
And Kent is more often colder and snowier than Northern England and parts of Scotland in the winter due to their proximity to the continent.
And more often than not when the wind and torrential rain spreads in from the atlantic they usually only get light rain or drizzle, or a few light showers or it’s just cloudy.
They get the hot weather in the summer first before the rest of the uk when that continental high moves into the uk, and are also last to lose the hot weather when the high slips back into the continent. They are also warmer or hotter than the rest of the uk in any warm or hot spell with them being so close to the continent.
And Kent is more often colder and snowier than Northern England and parts of Scotland in the winter due to their proximity to the continent.
And more often than not when the wind and torrential rain spreads in from the atlantic they usually only get light rain or drizzle, or a few light showers or it’s just cloudy.
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