Originally Posted by claire2281:
“I don't agree at all. If anything the last couple of years have shown that there's a base audience of about 6m who will watch DW because it's DW and the 3-4m more who used to watch it are dependent on how much they were enjoying what they saw.
Capaldi is associated with a DW that has become niche. People have already decided if they like the current Doctor and a new guy writing it won't make a difference. New people won't give it a try if they see the same face in the lead - the showrunner doesn't make a difference to the general audience and frankly the idea of a 'backlash' just doesn't track. The only way to refresh the show again is a totally fresh set of actors and tbh there's little risk - DW has loyal core audience regardless it seems.
From an advertising POV it would be very difficult to sell a whole new era with the same faces. From a writer's POV it's difficult to make something properly your own if you've got to work with leftovers from the last guy.
If they don't change Doctor and companion they're wasting a huge opportunity.”
Regarding the bolded bits, you say that new people won't give it a try if they see the same face in the lead... would that be the same 'new people' that decided to tune into
Voyage of the Damned? Or the more than 9 million viewers that
The Fires of Pompeii held onto? Or indeed the Series 4 finale which got a huge audience? Or
The Waters of Mars which again got over 10 million? Or
A Christmas Carol which got over 12 million? A new lead results in a brief spike, but isn't the only way you up the viewership. A mixture of decent casting, competent writing and successful promotion can all contribute to that. Casting someone new always runs the risk that they'll be less successful and cause the show some really serious decline - something we've not seen so far. Once that initial spike is done with you don't want to lose a quarter or a third of your audience, but you run that risk every time.
The idea that the only way of refreshing the show is with a fresh set of actors is a decidedly one-way perspective of the issue. A complete recasting with a new writer opens you up to the media suggestion that the show is in huge trouble and is opting for a total rebrand. It shows a lack of confidence in the brand 'as is'. Again, after the initial spike of viewership for
The Eleventh Hour, Series 5 didn't do any better than Series 4 did by having a wholly new lead cast. In fact on average it did a little worse.
As for working with the leftovers from the previous writer, Doctor Who is in a rather unique postion where you replace actor, but you don't replace character. Each Doctor might have his own unique twang, but beneath it all he is fundamentally the same character and the status quo must be adhered to to some degree. Chibnall will get his chance to write his own Doctor undoubtedly, but it's not the greatest hardship to build upon the character as he is right now when he's always adhering to that status quo. This is also why I support the notion that the show is typically seen through the eyes of the companion anyway... they're the one who can go on a journey and be left in a different place to where they started, with consequences actually having a lasting impact on their fate. If anything, a new companion would fit very well for Series 11 (even if it cuts the Series 10 companion short, I guess we'd have to wait and see) because it is the companion, rather than the Doctor, that voices the tone of the show and steers its direction to a significant degree.