Originally Posted by nattoyaki:
“Something doesn't seem right about the various statements from Peter and Steven last year imo - the latter saying he'd asked the BBC for more than what we already got (despite the frequent breaks under him) and then Peter complaining about people asking when he was leaving before...raising the subject of him leaving.
I'd love to know what has really gone on...if we lose Peter I'll be gutted!”
My guess as to how it's unfolded more or less....
- Moffat was considering when to leave a few years ago, pondering as early as Series 8 if it should be his last. He may have even briefly thought about bowing out alongside Jenna Coleman at the time, though later thought better of it. This is backed up by claims he made whilst promoting Series 8 that he knew he was closer to leaving than joining.
- Moffat signed to do Series 9, and to some level of surprise so did Jenna Coleman. Ultimately Moffat did really consider 2015 to be his final year. He would see Clara out of the show, have one last Christmas special to tell whatever final story he wanted or to wrap up loose ends. He brings back River Song, after encouragement from RTD to do so - something we know to have definitely have happened. It was also previously confirmed that the 2015 Christmas special might have one point been Moffat's final contribution.
- The BBC are aware of Moffat's plans to leave sooner rather than later, and consider their prospects for a successor. There is a chance they may have had a name or two in mind that didn't work out - possibly Toby Whithouse, or someone wholly new. Whether or not this was the case, they did ultimately settle on Chris Chibnall who agreed to take on the role...
- ...however the BBC found themselves in a bit of a tricky situation. They had to show commitment to their own shows outside of Doctor Who, and the ready-to-go Steven Moffat was more keen to get on with Sherlock in 2016. Similarly, proposed successor Chris Chibnall was not available until much later in 2016, possibly early 2017 due to his commitment to Broadchurch. A Chibnall-led series would not be able to see the light of day until late 2017 at the earliest.
- The BBC also notes the issues regarding DW: Series 9's poor scheduling. That broadcasting the show late in the year is proving problematic - putting it up against more needless competition, and sticking it out post-watershed as a result of Strictly getting in the way. This is backed up by a viewer decline that correlates perfectly with the later broadcast times since
The Caretaker in Series 8, and to an extent by the far better performance of the Christmas special not just in terms of raw figures but in terms of its relative success on Christmas night. There was a clear need to move the show away from autumn, but there was no way of moving the show forward.
- Faced with a situation where Doctor Who could be off air in 2016 AND 2017 because there is nobody to showrun it, Steven Moffat agrees (somewhat as a fan, somewhat because there was likely a nice sum of money involved) to stay on for one further year to soften the blow to the viewers. His further involvement means that the BBC can shift the show back to the spring schedule of old, resulting in a gap of only half a year more than usual - Series 10 would never have gone out earlier than Autumn 2016 anyway.
- With only a few episodes of Sherlock to produce in 2016, Moffat proposes doing more-than-usual episodes of Doctor Who to satisfy fans and to soften the blow of the gap - this may have transferred into an extended Series 10, or 2016 Specials, there's no way to know. At any rate, it seems that this request was never granted... and given the BBC would want the show to go out in 2016 if it could my guess is that the reason is purely down to either contractual obligations regarding how much Capaldi can work per-series, or down to the BBC having to adhere to a limited drama budget.
- Moffat does Series 10 out of loyalty and as a favour, without having to sacrifice Sherlock. Chibnall gets to do Series 11 straight after, not having to sacrifice Broadchurch. The BBC takes a bit of a hit for no 2016 series but overall a delay to the show of only about half a year - plus one more year of Moffat than they would have been anticipating which to them is a very good thing.
- Peter Capaldi meanwhile will get a well-earned rest in 2016. Whether he decides to bow out with Moffat or continue with Chibnall remains to be seen. Moffat's departure now awkwardly correlates with the unspoken three-series rule which on the previous two occasions has been what led to the departure of the lead. However for now, as much as all of the above is complete speculation on my part, I'd say that Capaldi's own invovlement isn't directly under threat from any of this, none of these actions are down to his involvement and should he decide to unfortunately leave in 2017 then it will very likely be of his own accord.