With the Iowa caucuses taking place tomorrow, I thought maybe it would be a good idea to get a thread going to discuss the run up to the election in November.

If anyone wonders what a caucus is, please read this: http://www.uspresidentialelectionnew...iowa-caucuses/

The calendar for state primaries is here: http://www.uspresidentialelectionnew...dule-calendar/ - we may start getting our first candidate drop outs after New Hampshire.

It appears to be Trump v Cruz in Iowa at the moment: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/sto...poll/79562322/

Clinton is just about edging Saunders in Iowa: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/sto...poll/79537020/

Clinton failing again would be all sorts of hilarious.

That first link is useful as I believe that there are a lot of folk who don't fully understand the US way of doing things.

I find Saunders quite engaging and think he is a decent man, but there is no way he will beat Clinton in primaries in the big states like New York and California.

Cruz is behind Trump in Iowa but his supporters are thought to be more fanatical and committed, so he has a decent chance of winning Iowa still. They key thing for Cruz then would be if he can keep the momentum going over to New Hampshire.

Disappointing that Ben Carsons poll numbers have plummeted, as he comes across as an extremely thoughtful and intelligent man. A shame that since the Paris attacks, the focus shifted to foreign policy which showed his lack of experience. Although a president is not expected to be knowledgable on all subjects, that is why they have advisers - and would certainly feel more comfortable if his finger was on the red button rather than Trumps!

Can still see Hillary facing indictment over the email scandal and Biden stepping in and Sanders will then lose a lot of his support to him. Believe it will be Biden v Cruz in November.

Ben Carson compared women who have abortions to historical slave owners and disagrees with abortion even in cases of rape or incest. Yet his own medical research has come from using fetal tissue something he first condemned and then back peddled on.

He called climate change irrelevant and his ideas on turning obamacare/government insurance into a free market is alarmingly ignorant for man in the medical profession.

For a man who is a neuroscientist he is utterly perplexing in his ignorance. I do agree that I would prefer someone as inactive as Carson in charge of a military to someone who might attack Russia on a whim but the guy didn't know basic foreign policy that my 10 year old nephew knows about. How do you not know whose in Nato!

The parallels between Sanders gaining momentum and Corbyn going from the token lefty nomination to winning I find a really interesting coincidence in UK/US politics. I do agree that Clinton will clinch the nomination as though Obama came from behind in 2008 he represented a much larger social/cultural change than Sanders who though liberal is an old white male who has been part of the political spectrum for a long time.

Carson as President scares me more than the idea of Trump as President,

the man believes that the Devil puts Dinosaurs on earth to test us, the Pyramids were built to store grain. The insane religious right will run amok across the America and Creationism will be taught as Scientific fact

The whole campaign is depressing as there isn't a decent candidate on either side.

Is there anyone who can give a one liner on what each politician is about? ie strict immigration, pro-Russia, etc etc?

It would be greatly appreciated

Bernie VS Trump is going to be good. I think Trump will find it hard to land any blows on Bernie Sanders at all. Considering that Trump's only method of attack is to insult, enrage or just confuse the voters and his opponents he'll find Bernie will totally circumvent that strategy.

The GOP will lose a lot of seat's if Donald Trump is the nominee.

Obama actually won Iowa, the first primary (er Caucus) back in 2008, an overwhelmingly white state. If Hilary is to show some vulnerability Iowa would be one of the states where one would expect Sanders has a decent chance.

O'Malley really should be doing a lot better than he is. He's the best I'd say.

I had hopes for Chris Christie as someone from the moderate, blue collar and sane wing of the Republican party but he has struggled to gain any traction.

The New York Times has endorsed Hillary for the Dems and John Kasich for the Republicans.

If Bernie wins Iowa its game on, because he'll almost certainly follow it up with a victory in New Hampshire a week later. But if he fails then I'm not sure what pathway he has, given Clinton has a big firewall of support amongst minorities which Bernie has yet to gain any traction in.

If Bernie wins Iowa, you're looking at 60/40 odds in Clintons favour, a loss would put Clinton 80-85+ chance at least.

Likewise Ted Cruz, its boom or bust for him, fails to win Iowa, a very conservative state by Republican standards with lots of evangelicals, he's almost certainly done. If Trump beats him there then Trump will certainly beat him in the south. Cruz isn't doing so well in Blue/Purple states, his path involves the religious south, so he needs to get the better of Trump here. If he does then its likely he could defeat Trump in the march 1st super Tuesday states (most of which are in the south).

I'm not sure that's entirely true. Obama won Iowa in the past two general elections. It's a mainly white state, but it has trended a bit toward the Dems recently. There is a conservative component of evangelicals among Republican voters there, moreso than in New Hampshire. But not necessarily on par with true Bible Belt states.

I think the Flint, Michigan disaster could have a massive affect for the republicans with the exception of trump. Here's a total disaster that was absolutely the fault of a republican governor. It nullifies the argument of Trump not having political acumen to run a country when the people who are in charge poison their own people.

If you haven't heard about it I suggest you do a google search its an incredible situation and I'm sorry to go off topic but brings realism to the massive problem in the America of black/white, poor/rich divide.

Melania made her first appearance at today's Trump rally in Iowa. Ivanka too.

One thing is for sure if Trump does get elected the US is going to have a very beautiful First Lady and Daughter...Donald, not so much...
https://youtu.be/O6k2wRdWA50

Bernie may stop Hilary but won't be the nominee - he is way behind her in the southern states. If she flops Biden or Kerry will step in - no socialist will become US President.

He's the least offensive, but he has a terrible record in Maryland. He taxed rain.

The voter violation mailings the Cruz campaign have sent out could be a big mistake.

Republicans:

Trump: capitalizing on angry white conservatives. Mainly anti-immigration, has little in the way of any actual policy proposals.

Cruz: Evangelical, super-conservative Tea Party candidate. Republican lawmakers hate his guts because he's self-serving. Led the government shut down which hurt conservatives.

Rubio: somewhat moderate (by american standards) Republican. Conservative on social issues, less insane on economic issues.

Bush: Establishment candidate, fairly moderate. Lots of money and endorsements, but not much enthusiasm about his campaign.

Christie: moderate New Jersey governor, had a very controversial governorship. Not well liked because he's not conservative enough.

Rand Paul: Libertarian, social conservative. Wants to abolish the IRS and other loony stuff.

Kasich: moderate-seeming Ohio Governor. Social conservative. Not a ton of enthusiasm about his campaign.

Ben Carson: weird neurosurgeon who believes insane shit and nobody knows how or why he's still running.

Mike Huckabee: another Conservative christian evangelical candidate.
Rick Santorum: Same as above, don't google his last name.

Democrats:
Hillary Clinton: moderate establishment Democrat. More hawkish than Obama, decent credentials, but a hugely polarizing figure in American politics.

Bernie Sanders; our Corbyn. independent "democrat" who is basically a Democratic Socialist.

Martin O'Malley: ex-gov of Maryland. Sort of progressive. Unenthusiastic campaign, not a great record in Maryland.

I'm aware Obama won there twice, what I meant was the conservative electorate in Iowa is much more conservative than say New Hampshire, New York etc. Ted Cruz isn't faring as well in those states, his pathway to victory involves winning Iowa which would springboard him into other states with large evangelical populations e.g. the deep south, if Trump gets the better of him in Iowa, he'll likely get the better of him in South Carolina and the march 1st super Tuesday states. I think the fact that both Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum won there, neither of whom became the eventual nominee, tells you a lot about Republicans in Iowa.

The latest poll I saw put Clinton and Sanders pretty much neck and neck and within the poll's margin of error.

As for Trump, at least he's a few percentage points clear of his nearest rival, Cruz.

If it does turn out to be Trump vs. Sanders race then things could very interesting because ex-New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg could stand as a third party independent (he's got $1 billion to throw at any campaign): http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/23/po...resident-2016/