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American Presidential Election 2016 Thread |
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#1 |
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Join Date: Jul 2003
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American Presidential Election 2016 Thread
With the Iowa caucuses taking place tomorrow, I thought maybe it would be a good idea to get a thread going to discuss the run up to the election in November.
If anyone wonders what a caucus is, please read this: http://www.uspresidentialelectionnew...iowa-caucuses/ The calendar for state primaries is here: http://www.uspresidentialelectionnew...dule-calendar/ - we may start getting our first candidate drop outs after New Hampshire. It appears to be Trump v Cruz in Iowa at the moment: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/sto...poll/79562322/ Clinton is just about edging Saunders in Iowa: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/sto...poll/79537020/ |
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#2 |
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Join Date: May 2012
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Clinton failing again would be all sorts of hilarious.
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#3 |
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That first link is useful as I believe that there are a lot of folk who don't fully understand the US way of doing things.
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#4 |
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Clinton failing again would be all sorts of hilarious.
Cruz is behind Trump in Iowa but his supporters are thought to be more fanatical and committed, so he has a decent chance of winning Iowa still. They key thing for Cruz then would be if he can keep the momentum going over to New Hampshire. |
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#5 |
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Disappointing that Ben Carsons poll numbers have plummeted, as he comes across as an extremely thoughtful and intelligent man. A shame that since the Paris attacks, the focus shifted to foreign policy which showed his lack of experience. Although a president is not expected to be knowledgable on all subjects, that is why they have advisers - and would certainly feel more comfortable if his finger was on the red button rather than Trumps!
Can still see Hillary facing indictment over the email scandal and Biden stepping in and Sanders will then lose a lot of his support to him. Believe it will be Biden v Cruz in November. |
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#6 |
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Quote:
Disappointing that Ben Carsons poll numbers have plummeted, as he comes across as an extremely thoughtful and intelligent man. A shame that since the Paris attacks, the focus shifted to foreign policy which showed his lack of experience. Although a president is not expected to be knowledgable on all subjects, that is why they have advisers - and would certainly feel more comfortable if his finger was on the red button rather than Trumps!
Can still see Hillary facing indictment over the email scandal and Biden stepping in and Sanders will then lose a lot of his support to him. Believe it will be Biden v Cruz in November. He called climate change irrelevant and his ideas on turning obamacare/government insurance into a free market is alarmingly ignorant for man in the medical profession. For a man who is a neuroscientist he is utterly perplexing in his ignorance. I do agree that I would prefer someone as inactive as Carson in charge of a military to someone who might attack Russia on a whim but the guy didn't know basic foreign policy that my 10 year old nephew knows about. How do you not know whose in Nato! |
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#7 |
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I find Saunders quite engaging and think he is a decent man, but there is no way he will beat Clinton in primaries in the big states like New York and California.
Cruz is behind Trump in Iowa but his supporters are thought to be more fanatical and committed, so he has a decent chance of winning Iowa still. They key thing for Cruz then would be if he can keep the momentum going over to New Hampshire. |
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#8 |
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Quote:
Ben Carson compared women who have abortions to historical slave owners and disagrees with abortion even in cases of rape or incest. Yet his own medical research has come from using fetal tissue something he first condemned and then back peddled on.
He called climate change irrelevant and his ideas on turning obamacare/government insurance into a free market is alarmingly ignorant for man in the medical profession. For a man who is a neuroscientist he is utterly perplexing in his ignorance. I do agree that I would prefer someone as inactive as Carson in charge of a military to someone who might attack Russia on a whim but the guy didn't know basic foreign policy that my 10 year old nephew knows about. How do you not know whose in Nato! the man believes that the Devil puts Dinosaurs on earth to test us, the Pyramids were built to store grain. The insane religious right will run amok across the America and Creationism will be taught as Scientific fact |
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#9 |
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The whole campaign is depressing as there isn't a decent candidate on either side.
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#10 |
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Is there anyone who can give a one liner on what each politician is about? ie strict immigration, pro-Russia, etc etc?
It would be greatly appreciated
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#11 |
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Bernie VS Trump is going to be good. I think Trump will find it hard to land any blows on Bernie Sanders at all. Considering that Trump's only method of attack is to insult, enrage or just confuse the voters and his opponents he'll find Bernie will totally circumvent that strategy.
The GOP will lose a lot of seat's if Donald Trump is the nominee. |
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#12 |
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I do agree that Clinton will clinch the nomination as though Obama came from behind in 2008 he represented a much larger social/cultural change than Sanders who though liberal is an old white male who has been part of the political spectrum for a long time.
Obama actually won Iowa, the first primary (er Caucus) back in 2008, an overwhelmingly white state. If Hilary is to show some vulnerability Iowa would be one of the states where one would expect Sanders has a decent chance. |
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#13 |
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Quote:
The whole campaign is depressing as there isn't a decent candidate on either side.
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#14 |
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Quote:
O'Malley really should be doing a lot better than he is. He's the best I'd say.
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#15 |
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The New York Times has endorsed Hillary for the Dems and John Kasich for the Republicans.
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#16 |
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Join Date: Jan 2012
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If Bernie wins Iowa its game on, because he'll almost certainly follow it up with a victory in New Hampshire a week later. But if he fails then I'm not sure what pathway he has, given Clinton has a big firewall of support amongst minorities which Bernie has yet to gain any traction in.
If Bernie wins Iowa, you're looking at 60/40 odds in Clintons favour, a loss would put Clinton 80-85+ chance at least. Likewise Ted Cruz, its boom or bust for him, fails to win Iowa, a very conservative state by Republican standards with lots of evangelicals, he's almost certainly done. If Trump beats him there then Trump will certainly beat him in the south. Cruz isn't doing so well in Blue/Purple states, his path involves the religious south, so he needs to get the better of Trump here. If he does then its likely he could defeat Trump in the march 1st super Tuesday states (most of which are in the south). |
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#17 |
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Quote:
Likewise Ted Cruz, its boom or bust for him, fails to win Iowa, a very conservative state by Republican standards with lots of evangelicals, he's almost certainly done. If Trump beats him there then Trump will certainly beat him in the south. Cruz isn't doing so well in Blue/Purple states, his path involves the religious south, so he needs to get the better of Trump here. If he does then its likely he could defeat Trump in the march 1st super Tuesday states (most of which are in the south). |
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#18 |
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Join Date: Dec 2008
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I think the Flint, Michigan disaster could have a massive affect for the republicans with the exception of trump. Here's a total disaster that was absolutely the fault of a republican governor. It nullifies the argument of Trump not having political acumen to run a country when the people who are in charge poison their own people.
If you haven't heard about it I suggest you do a google search its an incredible situation and I'm sorry to go off topic but brings realism to the massive problem in the America of black/white, poor/rich divide. |
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#19 |
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Join Date: Oct 2013
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Melania made her first appearance at today's Trump rally in Iowa. Ivanka too.
One thing is for sure if Trump does get elected the US is going to have a very beautiful First Lady and Daughter...Donald, not so much... https://youtu.be/O6k2wRdWA50 |
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#20 |
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Join Date: Jun 2006
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Quote:
Bernie VS Trump is going to be good. I think Trump will find it hard to land any blows on Bernie Sanders at all. Considering that Trump's only method of attack is to insult, enrage or just confuse the voters and his opponents he'll find Bernie will totally circumvent that strategy.
The GOP will lose a lot of seat's if Donald Trump is the nominee. |
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#21 |
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Join Date: Apr 2010
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Quote:
O'Malley really should be doing a lot better than he is. He's the best I'd say.
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#22 |
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Join Date: Jun 2011
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The voter violation mailings the Cruz campaign have sent out could be a big mistake.
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#23 |
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Join Date: Apr 2010
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Quote:
Is there anyone who can give a one liner on what each politician is about? ie strict immigration, pro-Russia, etc etc?
It would be greatly appreciated ![]() Trump: capitalizing on angry white conservatives. Mainly anti-immigration, has little in the way of any actual policy proposals. Cruz: Evangelical, super-conservative Tea Party candidate. Republican lawmakers hate his guts because he's self-serving. Led the government shut down which hurt conservatives. Rubio: somewhat moderate (by american standards) Republican. Conservative on social issues, less insane on economic issues. Bush: Establishment candidate, fairly moderate. Lots of money and endorsements, but not much enthusiasm about his campaign. Christie: moderate New Jersey governor, had a very controversial governorship. Not well liked because he's not conservative enough. Rand Paul: Libertarian, social conservative. Wants to abolish the IRS and other loony stuff. Kasich: moderate-seeming Ohio Governor. Social conservative. Not a ton of enthusiasm about his campaign. Ben Carson: weird neurosurgeon who believes insane shit and nobody knows how or why he's still running. Mike Huckabee: another Conservative christian evangelical candidate. Rick Santorum: Same as above, don't google his last name. Democrats: Hillary Clinton: moderate establishment Democrat. More hawkish than Obama, decent credentials, but a hugely polarizing figure in American politics. Bernie Sanders; our Corbyn. independent "democrat" who is basically a Democratic Socialist. Martin O'Malley: ex-gov of Maryland. Sort of progressive. Unenthusiastic campaign, not a great record in Maryland. |
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#24 |
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Join Date: Jan 2012
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Quote:
I'm not sure that's entirely true. Obama won Iowa in the past two general elections. It's a mainly white state, but it has trended a bit toward the Dems recently. There is a conservative component of evangelicals among Republican voters there, moreso than in New Hampshire. But not necessarily on par with true Bible Belt states.
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#25 |
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Join Date: May 2004
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Quote:
Clinton failing again would be all sorts of hilarious.
As for Trump, at least he's a few percentage points clear of his nearest rival, Cruz. If it does turn out to be Trump vs. Sanders race then things could very interesting because ex-New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg could stand as a third party independent (he's got $1 billion to throw at any campaign): http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/23/po...resident-2016/ |
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