I think we should remember that the Iowa caucuses last time were won by Rick Santorum and in 2008 by Mike Huckabee,

While they may be the first to vote they aren't often the best predictors of the eventual nominee - certainly on the Republican side. New Hampshire and South Carolina will tell us far more.

I'm interested to see if the Trump vote turns out in Iowa. So many people telling pollsters they're behind Trump, but will they turn out on the day? Apparently Cruz has a good ground game and should be able to get his vote out. If I were betting I'd bet on Cruz for Iowa.

I so hope Bernie wins to gain momentum and coverage, but I think Clinton will squeak it. Like Trump, I think there are question marks over how solid Bernie's support is. The latest polls show a significant chunk of Bernie's supporters are young, male, first time voters, the exact group that traditionally is the hardest to get out on polling day.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Sanders support falls flat on it's face today. I get the feeling that all of his support are Goby White Social Media Hypers.

I think it's a potential problem for both Sanders and Trump. Lots of support online and in the polls, but it's untested until after tonight.

Conversely though, if both Trump and Sanders smash it in Iowa, then everyone else in the race has huge problems going forward.

He'll do okay. The issue is that much of his support is in the college towns and in more dense areas. For the Democratic primary, the rural caucus delegates also count, and Clinton has a very tight ground game in those areas.

Saw something on the news today that I did not know. Apparently in Iowa it is not as simple as just rocking up and ticking a box then off home. Before you vote there seems to be some requirement to sit in and take part in discussions and your vote is public. Think this way of doing things is unique to Iowa.
Wish I had paid more attention to the news report and if anyone has better and further detail it would be interesting to find out.

Some of the recent polls show Marco Rubio gaining momentum in Iowa:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ucus-3194.html

Quinnapiac:
Trump 27
Cruz 26
Rubio 22

Emerson
Trump 31
Cruz 24
Rubio 17

Rubio was averaging only 10 in Iowa a week ago, so there is definitely is some movement towards him. Santorum who won Iowa in 2012 only averaged 4% a month before, then was polling at 15-18% on the final days before getting 24% and winning the state. A lot of people make their minds up late.

If Rubio can poll into the 20s his campaign would really begin to gain momentum and finally become a real alternative to Trump.

I'm no expert and it's complicated and even more complicated because the Reps have a different system to the Dems, but as far as I know a caucus is more a social event where people have to turn up and stay to support and argue publically for their candidate.

Those who support the various candidates go stand together and a percentage of support is calculated. I think the threshold is 15%. If a candidate doesn't get the 15% they're out and then debate continues to bring those supporters over to other candidates. When the final tally is arrived at then delegates are assigned to each candidate in that precinct based upon how many people declare for them.

Historically around 10% of Iowans caucus and Iowa represents 1% of the American population, so around 0.1% of the electorate get to kick the nomination process off.

Thanks Angie. That sounds such a convaluted process.

Pretty much, but a slight correction - while it could be different from one state's caucus to the other, I've never been to a Democratic caucus where people argue publicly or do much oration. Could be different in the Republican caucus (never caucused for them) with so many candidates.

For the most part people know their 1st and 2nd choice and will shuffle around accordingly. There is some gamemanship though, with some people voting strategically to block other candidates from getting delegates.

Made more sense when the country was young. I personally love the antiquated nature of it.

Our political system is far more brutal than over the pond. If the incumbent loses they are kicked out swiftly and a new government is formed the next day. The US has a look at me approach where they have to be centre stage for a couple of months until january when they are sworn in. If trump wins in november it will be a very interesting four years

TBH it reminded me of a kids tv show in the 80s called Runaround!

Thanks for the clarification. Makes more sense that it would be based on 1st and 2nd preferences with a bit of strategic voting, rather than public debate.

Us politics can be very brutal. Have you see some of the attack tv commercials?

Trump's final speech before the vote has started
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGWnYXUUmtE

Don't you guys by and large keep the public employees that work in the government when it changes from one to the other? In the US the newly elected government tends to fire everyone and bring in their own people every time.

Some of Trumps policies are far fetched and impractical but for some reason those are the policies he emphasises.

Yeah the civil service remain in place.

Caucus starts in 50 minutes votes will be known by 1am uk time, polls are very close.

Politicians promising far fetched things they can never deliver on - how unusual.

He is all about projecting strong leadership and Reagan style confidence building. Maybe that's why most Brits don't get him or his voters.

On many things he does make sense, the economy, the debt, renegotiating trade terms with China and so forth.


Thanks.

As close to live result updates as you'll get
http://data.desmoinesregister.com/io...ults/index.php

Rubio reported to be exceeding expectations and may even push Cruz into third.

Unlikely but you never know.