With the F1 title decided, I think it's safe now to make a call on this years shortlist, so on the assumption it will be 12 I'm going to go with:

Alistair Brownlee
Kadeena Cox
Hannah Cockcroft
Mo Farah
Chris Froome
Jason Kenny
Andy Murray
Adam Peaty
Nick Skelton
Sarah Storey
Laura Trott
Max Whitlock

Nothing wrong with those at an individual level, but six of them are cyclists, if you include triathlon. It would be ridiculous, and counter-productive to include them all, but I'm not sure who I'd drop from that lot.

Would not disagree with any of these 12 but just wonder if they would nominate 4 cyclists? I wonder if Nicola Adams or Helen Glover might get one spot ahead of a cyclist possible Jason Kenny just so that more sports can be recognised.

Ha, thats true, but as you say who would you omit? Brownlee, Trott and Kenny seem givens. Hard to see Froome missing out.

I guess Cox or Storey might miss out but for different reasons their achievements are hard to ignore.

I did have Nicola Adams on my alternative list along with a few others.

How about this for the possible dozen

Andy Murray
Mo Farrah
Ali Brownlee
Laura Trott
Gareth Bale
Chris Froome
Max Whitlock
Nick Skelton
Nicola Adams
Sarah Storey
Joe Root
Adam Peaty

10 different sports covered, but maybe not enough Paralympians in the list. I think Joe Root may get a nod after all he has done and because cricket often gets over looked and the BBC get criticized afterwards for it.

Murray, wins, the rest nowhere.

The shortlist will be revealed tomorrow on the One Show. I can't see them leaving Jason Kenny off the shortlist, especially as he equalled Chris Hoy's record medal tally. I think the following are dead certs for the shortlist:-

Andy Murray
Mo Farah
Max Whitlock
Jason Kenny
Laura Trott/Kenny
Kadeena Cox
Chris Froome

That leaves 4 spaces to be filled. Contenders for these spots are:-

- I think there will be at least 1 other Paralympian, probably Sarah Storey or possibly Hannah Cockcroft
- Not been mentioned on here but I can see 1 of either Maddie Hinch or Kate Richardson-Walsh getting nominated. Leicester will likely win the Team award but they will want to recognise the achievement of the GB Hockey team as it was one of the stand out moments in Rio
- Other Olympians who could make the shortlist include Adam Peaty & 1 of Dujardin/Skelton
- There will also be a non Rio nomination. Take your pick from Bale/Joshua/Willett

What if Andy says something that shocks the nation and offends the Muslim community

My final guess.

Murray
Farah
Kenny
Trott
Whitlock
A. Brownlee
Froome
Cox
Storey
Skelton
Joshua
Bale

At least one will be wrong, the first eight are locks but the bottom four I'm least sure about. Any other year Willett would be the first name on the list, while Firth has an outside chance as the most successful GB Paralympian at Rio. Peaty could still pip Skelton and Bale, with K Richardson-Walsh as an outside bet to represent the GB hockey team.

The shortlist will be officially announced during tonights The One Show

I highly doubt that Root will be nominated. And i think that Jason Kenny is a notable exception from your list, Kenny should definitely be nominated. There will be at least 2 Paralympians on the list. Even though he won the Tour de France I wouldnt be surprised if Froome wasnt on the final shortlist.

It's hard to say, as not one of them hugely stands out ahead of the others, but you could say the same of many non-cyclists. I'd definitely keep Brownlee, and while Froome winning TdF should make him a shoe-in, he's a bit of a wasted nomination as he's just not British enough to get the credit for winning a tournament that's not the Olympics. Trott and Kenny's achievements are virtually identical, so very hard to choose, but they virtually cancel each other out. I'd definitely want to include Cox, as her achievements are so unusual. If you are including a triathlon, a paralympian who also does running, then having a regular cyclist as well wouldn't be too much.

I'd be tempted to include Gordon Reid, but I'm not sure if the panel or public would think that it's too much tennis, and there is no way they are dropping Murray. Wheelchair tennis has really developed in the last couple of years, both in terms of the level of competition, but also the level of media attention. Whether he makes the list or not, I'm sure he'll get an interview.

I'd want Adam Peaty on the list too. I'd actually quite like a lot of people on the list, and don't envy them at all.

They are behind the scenes at the committee meeting for SPOTY on BBC Breakfast. This isn't just for the short-list, but team of the year and overseas personality etc.

But I've been able to spot Victoria Pendleton and Ryan Giggs on the panel, so make of that what you will.

There's also a shot of a notice with bullets that include

* represents the breadth and depth of UK sport
* takes into account 'impact' of the person's sporting achievement beyond the sport in question.

The previous bullet ends with the word 'stage'.

I really hope they don't cheat and go for "Team GB" again. They could pick the cycling or hockey team, which means less need to have individuals up for the individual award.

I still go by the notion, that the shortlist should just include people who did well in Rio, as the achievements in the Olympics and Paralympics.

I would expect Trott to finish well ahead of Kenny, she's more media friendly and appealing whereas he's introverted and has struggled to get sponsors.

Shortlist of 16!!!

shortlist of 16!

Not sure I agree with that, tbh, its a bit of a cop out to avoid making difficult decisions and even then there will be people moaning about someone who is left out.

12 to me was the upper limit of what is reasonable, 16 isn't a shortlist - it's a longlist.

Sky Bet have already put their odds on before the official announcement.

Odds are

Andy Murray 1/6
Alistair Brownlee 8/1
Laura Trott 16/1
Mo Farah 18/1
Gareth Bale 50/1
Max Whitlock 66/1
Nick Skelton 66/1
Jason Kenny 80/1
Jamie Vardy 100/1
Nicola Adams 100/1
Adam Peaty 150/1
Dame Sarah Storey 150/1
Danny Willett 150/1
Kate Richardson Walsh 150/1
Kadeena Cox 200/1
Sophie Christiansen 250/1

With 16 names here would assume that this is the shortlist

Good to see Sophie Christiansen and Nicola Adams on the list.

The first half of the official list is as follows:

Jamie Vardy
Gareth Bale
Nick Skelton
Sophie Christiansen
Kate Richardson-Walsh
Danny Willett
Nicola Adams
Andy Murray

surprise there would be no Froome.

I'm pleased Skelton is on the list, it was my most favourite moment of the games, I spent all day watching the show jumping on the live stream,

Max Whitlock must be one of the favourites.

The second half of the official list is as follows:

Max Whitlock
Adam Peaty
Alistair Brownlee
Mo Farah
Sarah Storey
Kadeena Cox
Jason Kenny
Laura Kenny (as she is now)

Jason and Laura Kenny. Is this the first husband and wife nominated?