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EgyptAir Flight MS804 from Paris to Cairo 'disappears from radar'
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Aftershow
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by johnny_t:
“Just out of interest, even fairly early yesterday, officials were saying that the plane had crashed and everyone was dead. Now, I can see how they could make a stab that it had probably crashed, but before you have even seen a crash site, or even any piece of debris, how can they declare there to be no survivors.

Is there really no hope of anyone getting out or into a life jacket or clinging to a wing ?”

If a plane disappears off radar at that altitude, the chance of anyone surviving is effectively zero.
cessna
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by johnny_t:
“Just out of interest, even fairly early yesterday, officials were saying that the plane had crashed and everyone was dead. Now, I can see how they could make a stab that it had probably crashed, but before you have even seen a crash site, or even any piece of debris, how can they declare there to be no survivors.

Is there really no hope of anyone getting out or into a life jacket or clinging to a wing ?”

>>>>

If the Jet commenced to fall out of the sky at 37,000 ft. then crashing into the sea from any great height would be similar to smashing into concrete. resulting in the wreckage breaking up into many small parts I would have thought.
Theo Rose
20-05-2016
I'm no expert but a swerve surely suggests it was a failure. If it was a bomb then the plane would have left wreckage everywhere following it blowing up. From the sounds of it the plane landed intact into the ocean.
adams66
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by LucyDTrym:
“The puzzling thing for me is the swerve and change in the air, why? If it blew up it would just drop into the sea...”

A smallish bomb could just blow a hole in the fuselage, or blow a wing off. The pilots may have been frantically wrestling with the controls. 90 degree turn one way, then a spiral the other way. Hope they find the black boxes soon.
jzee
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by Theo Rose:
“I'm no expert but a swerve surely suggests it was a failure. If it was a bomb then the plane would have left wreckage everywhere following it blowing up. From the sounds of it the plane landed intact into the ocean.”

A swerve could mean people were grappling over the controls.
johnny_t
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by Aftershow:
“If a plane disappears off radar at that altitude, the chance of anyone surviving is effectively zero.”

Originally Posted by cessna:
“>>>>

If the Jet commenced to fall out of the sky at 37,000 ft. then crashing into the sea from any great height would be similar to smashing into concrete. resulting in the wreckage breaking up into many small parts I would have thought.”

I agree, but these statements were being made before any wreckage whatsoever has been seen. For all they know, the plane 'could' have been pulled up into a very hard water landing and there 'could' have been survivors. To come out so early and say there won't be seems, however likely, a bit premature.
laurielou
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by jzee:
“Presumably someone attacking the pilot, or someone attacking the person that had taken the controls from the pilot.”

Yes, I wondered if it was something along those lines too. I wonder if EgyptAir has the same rule re locked cockpits as other airlines. Certainly sounds like last ditch attempt to control the plane in any case.

Quite shocked at the latest announcement of them finding 'debris and a body part' - not that that's what they've found but certainly not the most sensitive way to announce it publicly as far as relatives are concerned.
cessna
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by Theo Rose:
“I'm no expert but a swerve surely suggests it was a failure. If it was a bomb then the plane would have left wreckage everywhere following it blowing up. From the sounds of it the plane landed intact into the ocean.”

>>>>>

The two turns would suggest the a/c was under some form of control at that time with the pilot possibly attempting to fly away from the path of any other a/c on the same flight level etc and consistent with the procedure to be taken in the even of sudden loss of cabin air pressure, and sudden descent, but of course this remains speculation.
10000maniacs
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by Mark.:
“You should get in touch with the Egyptian authorities at once to inform them of your conclusions. They can then call off the costly search for the black box and debris, and not bother paying investigators.”

I am just speculating but why would the plane swerve if a bomb went off? It would go straight down. Just using common sense, but I agree, let the experts work it out.
cas1977
20-05-2016
I can't believe it can now be a terrorist attack by ISIS as surely by now they would have admitted responsibility for it?.......
Aftershow
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by cessna:
“>>>>>

The two turns would suggest the a/c was under some form of control at that time with the pilot possibly attempting to fly away from the path of any other a/c on the same flight level etc and consistent with the procedure to be taken in the even of sudden loss of cabin air pressure, and sudden descent, but of course this remains speculation.”

That would be my theory too. A pretty serious decompression followed by an attempt to get the aircraft down to a survivable altitude, but the pilots unable to effect a safe outcome.
Fizzbin
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by cessna:
“>>>>>

The two turns would suggest the a/c was under some form of control at that time with the pilot possibly attempting to fly away from the path of any other a/c on the same flight level etc and consistent with the procedure to be taken in the even of sudden loss of cabin air pressure, and sudden descent, but of course this remains speculation.”

Pure speculation on my part, but it wouldn't surprise me if they swerved to avoid a Russian fighter (they seem to get everywhere these days) but turned too sharply, went into a spin and fall where the G force knocked them all unconscious.
Aftershow
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by 10000maniacs:
“I am just speculating but why would the plane swerve if a bomb went off? It would go straight down. Just using common sense, but I agree, let the experts work it out.”

It depends on the size and position of a bomb. Depending on those factors, it wouldn't necessarily cause a break-up, but it would affect the control system to extent that the aircraft is essentially uncontrollable.

From what we've been told so far, it doesn't sound to me like a 'swerve' but a deliberate manoeuvre by the pilots. However, they didn't have enough control to be able effect a safe landing.
alfamale
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by jzee:
“No mobile phone masts in the middle of the mediterranean.”

I know. Im not that stupid. I wrongly used mobile phones as an EXAMPLE of what is technologically possible nowadays. I could easily have used examples of people never being lost near the norht or south pole or satelite phones working from the jungle or top of mount everest. My point is it now must be possible for some sort of device to be attached to every plane that makes it near on impossible for a plane to not be found quickly. Because disappearing planes is still too regular an occurence. There was a very 'routine' crash with a french airbus off the coast of brazil that took 11 months to find. And flight MH370 will probably not be found for decades if ever
LucyDTrym
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by jzee:
“Presumably someone attacking the pilot, or someone attacking the person that had taken the controls from the pilot.”

I thought the cockpit was now always on lock down so no one can get in? There are two pilots arent they.

It could be mechanical failure yet, didnt the tail fall off one of these a few years back.

I am going to wait and see what transpires. Not so long ago when a plane crashed we hardly heard much about it, now its 247 on the news and always a terrorist attack. Planes crash sadly for all sorts of reasons. Rarely by terrorism..... If it was a terrorist attack then it shows even with all the attacks in Paris recently no one has learnt lessons on security have they.
Aurora13
20-05-2016
The fact that they are not finding a massive debris field in a relatively small sea area indicates that this didn't totally blow up in mid air. It may have gone down in the sea and stuff in now floating back up to the surface.
chicaxs
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by alfamale:
“I know. Im not that stupid. I wrongly used mobile phones as an EXAMPLE of what is technologically possible nowadays. I could easily have used examples of people never being lost near the norht or south pole or satelite phones working from the jungle or top of mount everest. My point is it now must be possible for some sort of device to be attached to every plane that makes it near on impossible for a plane to not be found quickly. Because disappearing planes is still too regular an occurence. There was a very 'routine' crash with a french airbus off the coast of brazil that took 11 months to find. And flight MH370 will probably not be found for decades if ever”

You have raised very valid points. And to answer, the technology is there; the aircraft can install SATCOM which will enable airlines and regulatory operators to track aircraft using Satelites (Inmarsat namely). Whilst new aircraft have this adoption of technology, older aircraft do not. Airlines generally find this an expensive integration especially if they are phasing their aircraft into retirement. However ICAO (basically the UN of aviation) are trying to enforce mandates in place to get this technology on board (at the cost of the airline) so tracking is available.

It's a long and painful process but it will eventually happen. There is also radar in place but it can be widely political on which nations have access to radar content geographically.

What is insane is the cost of implemting tracking is a fraction of a cost of recovering an aircraft when it crashes....
Kirkfnw
20-05-2016
I don't see how it can crash into the sea. Surely it'd just float up?
Billy_Value
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by Kirkfnw:
“I don't see how it can crash into the sea. Surely it'd just float up?”

This ain't a cartoon.
Kirkfnw
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by Billy_Value:
“This ain't a cartoon.”

Last time I checked water isn't a solid.
dee123
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by Aftershow:
“If only there were any other threads, on any other manner of topics, for you to read. What a nightmare!”

Come on. We all know the hoopla this place had for MH370 was ridiculous.
Master Ozzy
20-05-2016
I can't understand how they can announce and say what happened to the plane and then retract it.
alfamale
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by chicaxs:
“You have raised very valid points. And to answer, the technology is there; the aircraft can install SATCOM which will enable airlines and regulatory operators to track aircraft using Satelites (Inmarsat namely). Whilst new aircraft have this adoption of technology, older aircraft do not. Airlines generally find this an expensive integration especially if they are phasing their aircraft into retirement. However ICAO (basically the UN of aviation) are trying to enforce mandates in place to get this technology on board (at the cost of the airline) so tracking is available.

It's a long and painful process but it will eventually happen. There is also radar in place but it can be widely political on which nations have access to radar content geographically.

What is insane is the cost of implemting tracking is a fraction of a cost of recovering an aircraft when it crashes....”

Excellent info cheers
Mark.
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by Kirkfnw:
“Last time I checked water isn't a solid.”

It doesn't need to be.

If a plane hit a gas at a high enough velocity it would break apart on impact, never mind a liquid.
skp20040
20-05-2016
Originally Posted by Kirkfnw:
“Last time I checked water isn't a solid.”

yes water is a liquid , however if you jump into a swimming pool from the edge the molecules move more easily at the impact point, from a height and massive speed and also the large area of a plane that same water cannot move like they would from you jumping in from a little way above so it is like hitting a solid surface initially and then that impact is what breaks up the plane instantly which in turn causes the injuries and usually deaths of those inside..
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