They will just use one of their other package which lets them have a Sunday game on Jan 1st.
Or even a Sat 1230 if Sky have a Friday night

I think NYE depends on whether Sky take first pick - Liverpool v Man City is quite a big game so I think they will. BT could have a game that round - possibly moved to Sunday 12:00 - but it's not the best of rounds. That said, I'm sure BT will want one game - even if it is a quota filler.

EDIT: Actually, BT could end up with Watford v Spurs on NYE as Sky probably wouldn't want all three Spurs games at Christmas.

Thinking about it more I can see Sky having a fame a day between Xmas and New Year;
Boxing Day 2 games
27th 1 game
28th 1 game
29th 1 game (from 31st Dec round)
30th 1 game
31st 1 game (plus BT game)
This then leaves NYD free for a full round of fixtures on 2nd Jan, which I assume Sky will want to show two on that day with a further two Tue/Wed night.

1st Jan is out as full set of games scheduled for Jan 2nd, so BT 5:30 slot will be needed on NYE to allow 4 games for the 31st Dec round which I predict will be shown Thu night, Fri night, Sat 1245 and Sat 530.

Think Sky will want Liv v Man C on the Thu or Fri evening otherwise their stuck showing it at 1230 on Sat.

Who do you guys think will get Arsenal vs Liverpool in week 1?

Slightly naughty from BT. Obviously it's just their stylised way of presenting fixtures, but some might interpret it as meaning the Manchester Derbies will be on BT Sport.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ck-ojqGWYAAh1JX.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ck-ojuVWsAEzJRe.jpg

I assume the only way BT would get to show them under the current contract is if they fell on a mid week round.

Probably Sky, could use it to launch Fri nights or Sun 4pm. But they could decide to hand it to BT to save 1st picks and start getting BT max'd out on two big teams. This will be a harder strategy for Sky though as BT has increased max no. of games per team from 7 to 8.

Almost certainly.

The Manchester Derby will be one of Sky's "red line" picks, i.e. they will never willingly pass on it.

So of the 33 weekend rounds Sky get 18 1st picks, the rest pass to BT who pick 9 rounds for their 1st picks handing the final 6 rounds back to Sky for 1st pick.

So for Sky's first choice 18 first picks we expect them to take 4 weekends both ties for Man U v Man C/Liv, plus the last 5 rounds of the season, leaves another 9 first choice 1st picks for Sky, which rounds do we expect these to be, is the opening weekend big enough to justify one of them?

Almost certainly Chelsea v Man Utd in week 9, plus the final day.

Going back to Dec 31st
It doesnot matter about Jan 2 fixtures
If team plays Sun 1 st the Monday game will just move to Tues or Weds night

Midweek fixture Manchester United v Hull City has already moved from Jan 31st to Feb 1st. I doubt this is for TV purposes at this early stage,

Sky will be praying Leicester dont have a repeat of last season. Taking them into account is hurting my head.

So once again all the Big 6 fixtures are seperated into one each week (30 out of 38 )
That leaves 8 matchweeks with no big game

Week 2 and 28 Arsenal play Leicester

Week 10 and 34 FA Cup Semi weekend

Week 16 and 38 Last Day Fixtures

Week 18 and 32 Boxing Day

Easy for sky. Bar arsenal v spurs drop.every obvious week and spurs up until last 4 rounds and you're at your 15 passes bar maybe one week. Bt can only pick 5 good spurs games before sky pick up.

Where do you get 5 from, BT can show 8 per team, some maybe used for mid week rounds but are there any Spurs games they'd want to take there?

EDIT: Sorry the 5 is 1st pick weekend games per team, my mistake.

Midweek rounds ended up being decent for BT. The first midweek round is average to say the least, but Everton v Arsenal is decent. Obviously, having Liverpool v Chelsea and then Chelsea v Man City is big for them, and of course the latter is in R31 so could be a pretty big game in the scheme of things.

Just at a glance, I could imagine Sky opting to tempt BT with several big Spurs games before Xmas, so I'd imagine them offering the following weeks to BT...
W3 - Tottenham v Liverpool (BT take it)
W7 - Tottenham v Man City (BT take it)
W10 - Tottenham v Leicester (I think BT may defer this back to Sky due to Spurs quota worries)
W11 - Arsenal v Tottenham (BT take it)
W13 - Chelsea v Tottenham (do BT take this?)
W15 - Leicester v Man City / Man United v Tottenham (BT take the former)
W17 - Everton v Liverpool / Arsenal v Man City (I think Sky pass this because they'll end up with whatever BT don't take).

It looks easier for Sky to get what they want by simply offering up Spurs games to BT. Spurs are now a bigger deal after their title challenge last season, and the likes of Tottenham v Man City (for example) is now IMO a bigger game than it would have appeared on paper 12 months ago. It will be interesting to see the strategy, but BT will have to turn at least one or two Spurs offers down otherwise they'll be in quota trouble early on.

Aren't we making the usual mistake of assuming that the teams of interest this season will be the same as last?

Obviously Leicester were out of the blue but even Spurs were someway down the list of top picks last year (probably 7th after Liverpool, United, City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton). By Feb/March time no one really cared about Chelsea's games unless they were playing someone who needed the points.

Completely agree, which is why I only looked at games pre-Xmas because that will take up the first and second batch of TV game decisions. The first batch will be selected using the logic of what happened last season, and the second batch will be selected when not that much has happened and so the same clubs will dominate the first picks. After Xmas and beyond, who knows?

I still think at this stage Sky will seek to protect their big United and Liverpool games (due to audience share and a general sense that both clubs will do something next season) and after that will be focusing on Guardiola and Conte at City and Chelsea and of course Arsenal.

Spurs and Leicester, despite being the teams competing in the title race last season, will IMO be regarded as the 6th and 7th priority once the initial first few weeks are out of the way. Sky will IMO want Leicester v Arsenal in W2 as the Champions first home game, but I don't think Leicester will feature in too many first pick decisions beyond the first month or two, fairly or not.

Spurs will be the bait that Sky dangle in front of BT, because Spurs are a big deal but there will be doubts about whether they can repeat what they did last season. Sky will take the attitude that if Spurs don't match their 2015-16 form they've not lost much by giving away a few of their games, whilst if they do start well BT will be more likely to grab anything Spurs related in the second batch, thus leaving them in quota issues and making Sky's life alot easier post-Xmas.

Man United v Southampton is another match that week with the potential to be played MNF since neither are in the League Cup 2nd round so Sky has some options.

I don't think that's necessarily fair comment. We know that Sky and BT didn't start to look more closely at Leicester until well after Christmas last year, so I think it's fair to assume that they'll be basing their selections for 2016/17 primarily on their normal selection criteria (big teams that will draw a good audience, plus those that did well last year) and will focus on Liverpool, Man United, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea as much as they did last year, with Tottenham falling into the second tier and being joined by Leicester.

I'll be hugely surprised if they deviate substantially from that in the first half of the season.

Liverpool have asked Burnley to switch their Premier League fixture scheduled for August 20 to Turf Moor from Anfield, according to Sky sources.

The match will, however, go ahead at Anfield with full capacity if the Clarets reject the offer.
http://www.skysports.com/football/ne...er-league-game

If Burnley agreed it would mean Liverpool starting with 3 away games at Arsenal, Burnley and Tottenham. Tough.

I'm old enough to remember 1987-88 when a broken sewer under the Kop meant Liverpool started with 3 away games. It didn't harm them then.