International break after this so no Monday night matches allowed (unless they've changed the rules)

The increased min quota for midweek rounds makes BT's life a lot easier. I think the only team that they absolutely won't go over 1 weekend game for is Chelsea.

BT should be absolutely fine with the first midweek round. The second follows the FA Cup Fourth Round, the TV picks for which get made after the TV picks for the midweek PL round, so that should be fine too.

Where BT might have a problem is Week 31. This is preceded by the weekend featuring Arsenal v Man City and Liverpool v Everton. Sky might fancy that as a Super Sunday which would mean both Chelsea v Man City and Man Utd v Everton would have to be played on the Wednesday night. However, I still think it might be the case that the PL protect BT in this respect and will ask Sky to use their Friday night or Saturday lunchtime slot to allow BT to show their chosen games.

I guess Leicester v Swansea on the Friday night then, and Man City West Ham on the Sunday.

Since everyone is having a go, here's my fixture predictions for August. These are based on the assumption that Sky have control over 3rd picks.

Sat 12:30 Hull vs Leicester (2A)
Sat 17:30 Man City vs Sunderland (5B)
Sun 13:30 Chelsea vs West Ham (4C)
Sun 16:00 Bournemouth vs Man United (1D)
Mon 20:00 Arsenal vs Liverpool (3E)

Fri 19:45 Man United vs Southampton (3E)
Sat 12:30 Stoke City vs Man City (2A)
Sat 17:30 Watford vs Chelsea (4F)
Sun 13:30 Tottenham vs Crystal Palace (5C)
Sun 16:00 Leicester vs Arsenal (1D)

Sat 12:30 Chelsea vs Burnley (2A)
Sat 17:30 Tottenham vs Liverpool (1B)
Sun 13:30 Watford vs Arsenal (4C)
Sun 16:00 Man City vs West Ham (3G)


The way I see it is that Sky will pass some of the earlier weeks to ensure full control of final run in. I can see Sky passing weeks 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, 13, 15, 19, 22, 25, 27, 28, 32 and 34

In return I can see BT passing back weeks 2 (LEI v ARS), 7 (TOT v MNC), 10 (TOT v LEI), 28 (FA Cup QF), 32 (Nothing of note), 34 (LEI v TOT/FA Cup SF)

I think Sky will again try and pass as many big Spurs games as they can afford to with the knowledge they can try and max BT out on 1st picks before the title run in.

The fact is as someone pointed out earlier, we can roughly (bar one or two weeks) identify most of the first picks and where they'd be heading, it's the 2nd picks onwards and slotting into categories that will give us predictors major headaches this season. As ever it's only a spot of fun.

When do Sky and BT decide the live fixtures

Slightly confused. BT can only pass first picks back. is that correct?

I'm punting on Mon 4th July. Is around then I think.

Something I've noticed which could be very useful to Sky is that the Friday night slot is more readily available than I first thought. I'm still unconvinced that the PL will allow a Fri game after an international break, but this might not turn out to be too big a problem for Sky. The reason? Because Liverpool and Chelsea are not in Europe.

The rounds after European midweeks are perfectly set for either of those clubs to be shown on the Fri night, and as a result I think Sky won't have too many problems getting their fill in this slot. Of course, this can be countered by the fact that Liverpool and Chelsea's absence from Europe makes them ripe picks for the Mon night before a CL round, but at least their absence opens up the Fri possibility that bit more*.

Regarding Hull-Leicester on the opening Fri night, I think it's possible but unlikely for two reasons. Firstly, the Fri night slot would have been ideal for Sky if BT still had the Sat 12:45 slot. Then Sky would be able to prevent BT getting the bonus of the first game of the season. As it is, Sky do have the first 'solid' slot of the weekend so this point is irrelevant.

Secondly, the first two rounds of the season are a perfect chance for Sky to show CL teams on a Mon night. Opportunities to do so will be few and far between once we get into the meat of the season, so Sky always tend to go for the big boys on MNF early doors. This actually makes Hull-Leicester a stronger possibility for Mon night than Fri.

(*) We should bear in mind that Package E designates 0-10 Fri night games. Sky are under no obligation to actually show any, and are free to just bump up the Mon night slot instead. The likelihood is they'll try for a mix, not least because of the 'attraction' of a new night for PL football.

I'm not sure if you did this intentionally, but I'm working on the assumption that once Sky pass first/third pick to BT, they can't then pass it back to themselves if they don't like the fact that BT didn't take the bait. So in Week 2, for example, Sky could still get Leicester v Arsenal in Package D, but it would require the following picks:

Fri 19:45 Man United vs Southampton (3E)
Sat 12:30 Stoke City vs Man City (1A)
Sat 17:30 Watford vs Chelsea (5A)
Sun 13:30 Tottenham vs Crystal Palace (2C)
Sun 16:00 Leicester vs Arsenal (4D)

As you can see, Sky's flexibility is restricted by the new package structure. Securing a game in Package D costs them first, second, third and fourth pick. They will have to plot their way through the season very carefully. I think this is even more pertinent for third picks. I can imagine some weeks where Sky are happy for BT to have third picks but don't want to risk BT passing third pick to Package G. I suppose if the worst comes to the worst Sky can always show a big team twice a Christmas. But with the exception of Spurs, I think Sky will want to get Man Utd, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City into a weekend Package G game.

Last season was the first when the Aug-Sep games were announced separately (and earlier) than the Oct-Nov games. On that occasion it was Fri 3 July, with the second batch coming on Fri 31 July. In the previous six seasons the first selections (for four months) were made between 5-14 July.


We believe that BT can also pass back third picks in a similar manner to first picks. Sky get first shout with Package E, then BT with Package B, and finally Sky with Package G. Sky have six third picks in Package G (much like how they have six first picks in Package A), so BT can pass back six times over the course of the season.

Technically BT may be able to do some passing back at fifth pick level too, but that's small potatoes in the grand scheme of things!

Of course it's slightly more complicated with third picks. I think it's most likely that Sky have the right to bypass Package B when BT are using a first pick. That is, they don't have to use a third pick in Package E when Package B has first pick. I suspect Sky won't be able to avoid BT passing third pick to Package G at some point, but I think Sky will want to limit it as much as possible.

I might as well go with the prediction then as well.

Sky picks:

1st pick: AFC Bournemouth v Manchester United Sunday 4:00pm Package D.
2nd pick: Hull City v Leicester City Saturday 12:30pm. Package A.
3rd pick: Arsenal v Liverpool. Monday 8:00pm. Package E.

Sky will pass 4th pick to BT.

4th pick: Everton v Tottenham Saturday 5:30pm. Package F.

Sky 5th pick:

5th pick: Chelsea v West Ham United. Sunday 1:30pm. Package C.

In chronological order then:

Saturday 12:30pm. Sky: Hull City v Leicester City 2nd pick from package A.
Saturday 5:30pm. BT: Everton v Tottenham. 4th pick from package F.
Sunday 1:30pm. Sky: Chelsea v West Ham United. 5th pick from package C.
Sunday 4:00pm. Sky: AFC Bournemouth v Manchester United. 1st pick from package D.
Monday 8:00pm. Sky: Arsenal v Liverpool. 3rd pick from package E. (Although this is the real first pick.)

wouldn't be surprised if come seasons end we decide BT have used a pick from their midweek pack in week 1, especially if it is Everton vs Spurs

Whilst I am here I might as well try and predict the fixtures Sky will choose for package G on Boxing Day and also Monday 2nd January 2017.

Monday 26th December 2016

Hull City v Manchester City
Leicester City v Everton
Liverpool v Stoke City
Southampton v Tottenham

Monday 2nd January 2017

AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal
Sunderland v Liverpool
Tottenham v Chelsea
West Ham United v Manchester United

This gives team quotas of:

Arsenal 1
Chelsea 1
Liverpool 2
Manchester City 1
Manchester United 1
Tottenham 2

AFC Bournemouth 1
Everton 1
Leicester City 1
Hull City 1
Southampton 1
Stoke City 1
Sunderland 1
West Ham United 1

There's 4 games on these bank holidays? What are the KO times?

I reckon two games on Boxing Day and two on December 27 - not sure about kick off times though, could be 17:30/19:45 both days. I reckon two games on Jan 2 (hopefully 12:45 and 17:30 and not 19:45) and then games on Tuesday and Wednesday 3rd/4th Jan (19:45/20:00 kick offs).

Hate the 19.45 boxing day time.
Does it rate well? Aren't most people up to something else?

Most are, same with every other TV timeslot throughout the year.

It does have to be said that it's an awful time for the people who actually go to the games with the transport situation on Boxing Day.

Personally, if my team is involved I'd be there. or watching via TV, even at midnight.

Southampton v Arsenal (Boxing Day 19:45) got a programme average of 886,000 which is quite good.

Cheers for the clarification TLG86. I was making the assumption that Sky's 18 first picks could go into either Package A or D, so as a result Leicester v Arsenal could still have been a 1st pick in Pack D. However the way you've described it makes much more sense now. Altering future guesses accordingly

Apologies if this been covered but has anyone looked and compared the actual fixtures to that 'leaked' one, I presume most of it was incorrect?

The leak was wrong. They guessed the wrong midweek before Christmas (unfortunately).

Slightly off topic, but when the Football League fixtures are released at 9am tomorrow the opening weekend TV games will be announced at the same time. Why can't they do that for the Premier League too!?

It was all different to the official fixtures.

No surprises there then!

However... it will still be posted and still discussed same time next year

Cause Sky have Exclusive Contract for the Football League.

And you can guess Newcastle and Villa for two, will definitely be shown on the opening weekend.

What will be interesting though, on Saturday 6 August, do Sky show a FL game at 12.30, or do they play it at 5.20 say, to get viewers used to there new time slot.

No doubts Newcastle will be shown on the Sunday, possibly at the same time as the Community Shield