Originally Posted by ep1987:
“Some thoughts:
1. I'm fairly confident that each week is picked sequentially (rather than 6 first picks, followed by 6 second picks and so on). First picks drive the value of the rights and forcing a broadcaster to make them with minimal information seems sub-optimal.
2. A key factor that guides the early season picks is Sky only being able to show one game featuring CL sides on weeks that precede a European round (group stage draw is August 26).
The Friday night option introduced this cycle hasn't helped at all so far this season as matchday 1 is preceded by international qualifiers (thus Sky lose Liverpool v Leicester after taking the Manchester Derby) and Man Utd v Leicester (PL6) couldn't be moved to Friday as matchday 2 means that Man Utd (Europa) have to play on Sunday the preceding week (PL5) which will mandate a Wednesday fixture in the League Cup.
3. This is part of the reason that Sky passed Arsenal v Chelsea (a marquee fixture for BT amongst an otherwise middling opening slate) rather than attempting an early season 'strangle'. The following few weeks dictate no real CL/EL restrictions so by sacrificing this game they avoid gifting BT an attractive match and have one less pass to make later on.
4. I'm fairly certain that Hull v Man Utd in week 3 is a BT first pick. Remember that Sky have to make 15 passes in 33 weekend rounds, BT needed a Man Utd game (missed 1 and 2, weren't getting 4) and we all know that Sky will likely be attempting a Tottenham squeeze (so wouldn't use a de facto 1st pick on their game versus Liverpool).
5. It would make sense for the picking protocols to have been tightened up. I think the only 'pick swapping' option may be to use a 4th pick as a 5th pick on weekends where no 5th pick is used (otherwise there would have to be 4 televised games on the final day). I'm guessing use of picks 1-3 is compulsory with packages F and G having restrictions on their weekend games (F's 2nds only available once per 'batch') in order to temper forced usage.
6. So by my count Sky have passed 3 times (2, 3, 6) and i'll predict that they will have marked in pencil to cede first pick control for the weekends falling on the following Saturdays; Oct 1st, Oct 29th, Nov 1st, Nov 26th, Dec 3rd, Dec 10th, Dec 17th, Jan 21st, Feb 4th, Feb 11th, Mar 4th, Mar 11th, Mar 18th, April 1st, April 8th, April 22nd (of those 16 they'll have to pass 12).
I've put the very likely passes (8) in italics meaning that 4 of the remaining 8 will be offered to BT based on results (with scheduling of other major events being a secondary factor).”
Interesting post, thank you. Here are my thoughts:
1. The general consensus on here has been that first picks get declared before any picks get made. There have been a number of examples of this, but I still think the first set of picks in 2013-14 provides the best example. Here are Man Utd's opening nine fixtures of that season, along with what Sky and BT did:
1. Swansea v Man Utd - Sky first pick
2. Man Utd v Chelsea - Sky first pick
3. Liverpool v Man Utd - Sky first pick
4. Man Utd v Crystal Palace - BT first pick
5. Man City v Man Utd - Sky first pick
6. Man Utd v West Brom - BT first pick used on Spurs v Chelsea
7. Sunderland v Man Utd - Sky first pick
8. Man Utd v Southampton - BT first pick used on Newcastle v Liverpool
9. Man Utd v Stoke - not selected for TV
Sky were described as having implemented a "strangle at birth" approach to BT which included taking first pick in Week 1 to secure David Moyes's first game in charge of Man Utd. What was surprising, however, was Sky's decision to take first pick in Week 7 when there wasn't really a stand out game. The thinking is that this forced BT into using first pick in Week 4 on Man Utd v Crystal Palace rather than the better looking Everton v Chelsea, Stoke v Man City or Sunderland v Arsenal. Had BT not taken Man Utd in Week 4, they would not get them until Week 9 (26 October). It seems to me that it is eminently sensible to have Sky (and now BT) declare their pick options before selecting fixtures. What is not clear (and unlikely to ever be clear), is the order thereafter. Do they declare first picks then make them? Or do they declare first picks, second picks etc, then make them?
2. Your observation about Man Utd playing Sunday-Wednesday before Week 6 ruling out a Friday night clash with Leicester is a very good one. I had wondered if Sky might go for Middlesbrough v Spurs as a Friday night game in Week 6, and thus requiring both teams to play on the Tuesday in the League Cup (should Boro still be in it). That they didn't doesn't mean that they are averse to making such a selection, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on for the Week 10 picks.
3. Agreed - Week 6 was an obvious pass for Sky.
4. I suppose it depends on how early BT needed a Man Utd game. Given that Liverpool are not in Europe I'd have thought it was more pressing to show them early (though I have speculated that they new they'd get Liverpool v Leicester in Week 4 if Sky could not use the Friday slot following internationals). I think BT could have been confident of getting either Hull v Man Utd in Week 3 or Watford v Man Utd in Week 5. But even if they didn't, I think it's unlikely that Sky would have also shown Man Utd v Southampton in Week 2. I reckon if that had been available BT would have been well within in their right to take that in Package F and put in the Sunday 12:00 slot. I take the view that Sky would have planned to pass second pick to BT in either Week 2 or 3 safe in the knowledge that BT would take Man Utd. With the Watford v Man Utd game looking like a Package F game, the proof will probably come with the midweek picks. If BT don't pick Crystal Palace v Man Utd in Week 16, I think it's highly likely that BT have selected Man Utd in Package F twice.
5. I think we know that if a slot is available, then Sky or BT can fill it with a game from a package with games allocated to that slot even if the pick is made out of turn. It's why I think Man City v Sunderland is a third pick. If Sky had taken picks 1 to 4, if I were BT I would have gone for Everton v Spurs in Package F. That it would turn a fourth pick into a fifth picks doesn't really matter. In terms of restrictions on passing to Packages F and G, that's something to keep an eye on. If I was Sky or BT I would be passing to those packages as much as possible. I reckon BT can't pass third pick to Package G if Sky have taken first and second picks in Package D and C respectively and thus occupied the Sunday 13:30 and 16:00 slots (possibly applicable to Week 1). In my simulation I had Sky using five of their weekend third picks in Package G before Christmas. If Sky go into the Bank Holiday picks with a number of outstanding weekend Package G games, they may be forced into picking teams in both bank holiday rounds (not just Spurs) just to ensure that they get their fill of the big teams.
6. Interesting that you haven't suggested Liverpool v Man City on December 31 as a possible pass for Sky. I suppose it comes down to whether Sky want to claim Christmas as their's. If I had to make a prediction I'll go for the following weeks with the italics indicating Sky returning the pass: 7,
10, 11,
13, 15, 22, 25, 27,
28, 29,
32,
34. BT might consider ditching a Spurs game if they think it's worth having a Spurs game in reserve and/or they want first pick in Week 34.